OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[MadAmster]

How much mileage in this quote?

"Mr Campbell Bannerman, who sits on the European Parliament’s trade committee, said: “The reports we are getting in the European Parliament is that German industry is beginning to panic that we may end up walking away and go for World Trade Organisation rules because of the hard stance being taken by leading figures in the EU like Tusk and [commission chief negotiator] Michel Barnier.

“What people didn’t realise about Tusk’s statement is that he has already conceded a Canada plus deal, in other words a deal better than the free trade agreement recently with Canada.

“That would solve the Northern Ireland border issue and give us complete tariff free access for goods, although limited access for services.

“I think we should bank that.”

But he added: “It is good that the Government is prepared for WTO rules and it sounds like the EU’s hard stand is pushing ministers that way.

“I would like ministers to come out more to say how prepared we are for that scenario.”"

I am pretty certain that there is a fair bit of truth in it and that there are 2 possible outcomes.

1. We walk away. No deal. No divorce payment. Nothing. Use the WTO tariffs.

2. We get a compromise somewhere between what Mayhem wants and what the EU Commission is pushing for.

I would also add that the French, Italian, Spanish and other car manufacturers will likely soon be at their governments telling them they can't be savage with the UK or they themselves will suffer...... also a point I have made before.

[Ram59]

Wow...of all the people I didn’t expect to accept that the Referendum was only ever ‘advisory’ you’d have been top of the list, Ram.
You’re right of course, but in the same way as Trump can’t afford to upset the ‘gun lobby’ so politicians in this country - Labour and Tory alike - are now reluctant to stand accused of going against the ‘Will of the People’ no matter how much sense it makes.
I’d tell you that this ‘Will of the People’ doesn’t really exist but it’d only set Ramjet off counting again.

The government stated in the referendum leaflet that they would carry out the result of the referendum, not that they would consider the result when making a decision. There was a moral, if not legal, obligation for them to go ahead with brexit. If you wish to cling to the advisory stance, then you're welcome.

Having said that, it has shown a considerable lack of thought when planning the referendum. There should have been some thought given to a minimum acceptable turnout and a minimum acceptable difference in voting. If these standards weren't met then another referendum should have been taken in a couple of years time, after Cameron's concessions had come into effect. We're arguing over more than 1 million voters in a relatively high turnout, what would be happening now if the turnout was very low and the brexit vote had won by a few hundred votes?

[ramAnag]

Purely a selfish move on my part as I have explained before. When travelling with members of my family I would like to go through passport control together with them and not have me having to wait for them or vice versa. I could be pedantic and say that I have only taken dual nationality and am not in possession of a Dutch passport...... yet, but I won't

I have also said in the past on here that there should have been a 3rd choice, namely, stay in but fight to push through the massive changes that the UK wants and the EU needs. That would have been my choice had I been given one.

I am, as you all know, very anti EU but not anti organised cooperation in Europe in the form that it was in 1991 prior to the Maastricht agreemant that morphed the EEG into the EU.

Well there you go Amster, we agree after all, in so much as I absolutely accept the contents of your second paragraph about a 3rd choice.

I’m not ‘clinging’ to anything Ram...it’s a fact that Referendums in this country are not legally binding thus they are never anything but ‘advisory’.
There was no legal, or moral, responsibility to follow the views of the 37% (119 Rog?) and actions have been driven by nothing other than political necessity/posturing ever since.
Even you accept that the terms of the Referendum were flawed...MadAmster likewise...you can hardly have been reassured by the chaos which has ensued since negotiations began so why are we following this absurd road to likely ruin. Change...Yes. Economic Suicide for years to come? No!

[Trickytreesreds]

The government stated in the referendum leaflet that they would carry out the result of the referendum, not that they would consider the result when making a decision. There was a moral, if not legal, obligation for them to go ahead with brexit. If you wish to cling to the advisory stance, then you're welcome.

Having said that, it has shown a considerable lack of thought when planning the referendum. There should have been some thought given to a minimum acceptable turnout and a minimum acceptable difference in voting. If these standards weren't met then another referendum should have been taken in a couple of years time, after Cameron's concessions had come into effect. We're arguing over more than 1 million voters in a relatively high turnout, what would be happening now if the turnout was very low and the brexit vote had won by a few hundred votes?

We are looking at democratic legitimacy? Love this from the Guardian concerning the EU.
Answer Benns questions anyone?

I considered voting for Brexit. After the referendum was agreed, but before the campaigning had begun, I could have gone either way. My issue was democracy. I didn’t like the fact that the European parliament could not initiate legislation; that turnout for European parliamentary elections had fallen 30% since the first elections in 1979; the way countries that voted “the wrong way” on EU referendums were effectively instructed to vote again (Denmark 1992; Ireland 2001, 2008) and get it right; the fact that Greece’s resounding democratic rejection of the terms of its bailout (2015) was treated with such contempt.

Britain is still clueless about the EU’s motives in Brexit negotiations
Tom Kibasi
Read more
It felt increasingly obvious that this institution had growing control over our lives even as it became less obvious how anyone beyond its ruling bodies could directly influence it. It’s never been obvious to me that the EU’s senior leadership could satisfactorily answer all of the late Tony Benn’s five essential questions for people of power, namely: What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you use it? To whom are you accountable? How do we get rid of you?

[roger_ramjet]

FOR THE UK

What power have you got? As devolved many years ago via Runnymede from the monarchy but we really do need a constitution to back up the operating legislation and body of care law

Where did you get it from? see above, ultimately taken by force in Civil War as well

In whose interests do you use it? usually those of the politicians and the interest groups that back them financially

To whom are you accountable? The electorate by quinquennial (?) elections and via budgets etc that are audited. Not perfect - indeed far from it - but at least some

How do we get rid of you? Parliamentary and local authority elections

CONTRAST HOWEVER FOR THE EU

What power have you got? Almost absolute and growing

Where did you get it from? Took it by stealth

In whose interests do you use it? That of the Germans, the French and to a lesser extent the newly emergent EU member states until the Germans and French feel ready to rape them.

To whom are you accountable? Absolutely no-one as our accounts make clear by their non auditable state

How do we get rid of you? You don't, we get rid of you

So our system is far from perfect but there are significant differences which enable the people to control the extremes of parliament via the ultimate sanction of dismissal. Sadly the European Commission is an uncontrolled leviathan and the European parliament a toothless tiger. Massive constitutional reform is needed in the EU before it even approaches becoming vaguely democratic.

Sort that issue out, create accountability to all of the people who "pay for it" whatever country they reside in, review and then dismiss plans to federalise the system - although this becomes vaguely acceptable if there are democratically elected bodies making the decisions. Then you might get my vote as the tariff free customs/trading union has obvious advantages.

But stay and fight? Cnut had a better chance trying to make the tide go back. Stay and slowly lose that battle since the unelected civil service dont want to sign their own death warrants. Whats the point. Negotiate power away from a group that have no right to the power they have: good luck with that. Easier to try to wrestle power away from Putin

[Trickytreesreds]

FOR THE UK

What power have you got? As devolved many years ago via Runnymede from the monarchy but we really do need a constitution to back up the operating legislation and body of care law

Where did you get it from? see above, ultimately taken by force in Civil War as well

In whose interests do you use it? usually those of the politicians and the interest groups that back them financially

To whom are you accountable? The electorate by quinquennial (?) elections and via budgets etc that are audited. Not perfect - indeed far from it - but at least some

How do we get rid of you? Parliamentary and local authority elections

CONTRAST HOWEVER FOR THE EU

What power have you got? Almost absolute and growing

Where did you get it from? Took it by stealth

In whose interests do you use it? That of the Germans, the French and to a lesser extent the newly emergent EU member states until the Germans and French feel ready to rape them.

To whom are you accountable? Absolutely no-one as our accounts make clear by their non auditable state

How do we get rid of you? You don't, we get rid of you

So our system is far from perfect but there are significant differences which enable the people to control the extremes of parliament via the ultimate sanction of dismissal. Sadly the European Commission is an uncontrolled leviathan and the European parliament a toothless tiger. Massive constitutional reform is needed in the EU before it even approaches becoming vaguely democratic.

Sort that issue out, create accountability to all of the people who "pay for it" whatever country they reside in, review and then dismiss plans to federalise the system - although this becomes vaguely acceptable if there are democratically elected bodies making the decisions. Then you might get my vote as the tariff free customs/trading union has obvious advantages.

But stay and fight? Cnut had a better chance trying to make the tide go back. Stay and slowly lose that battle since the unelected civil service dont want to sign their own death warrants. Whats the point. Negotiate power away from a group that have no right to the power they have: good luck with that. Easier to try to wrestle power away from Putin

Brilliant post Roger.
Which again beggars the question.
When free trade was such a brilliant idea, how was it allowed to be used as a tool to promote the above?


No one voted for that, EVER!!!!

Yet it is now the noose tied around your neck for non conformance. Has the whiff of a dictatorial to me.

QED

[ramAnag]

Brilliant post Roger.
Which again beggars the question.
When free trade was such a brilliant idea, how was it allowed to be used as a tool to promote the above?


No one voted for that, EVER!!!!

Yet it is now the noose tied around your neck for non conformance. Has the whiff of a dictatorial to me.

QED

‘Brilliant post Roger’? You might want to ask him why he voted ‘Remain’.
In the meantime...I’ll ask...what exactly has changed so much since the Referendum to make you do quite such an about turn then, RR?

[Trickytreesreds]

‘Brilliant post Roger’? You might want to ask him why he voted ‘Remain’.
In the meantime...I’ll ask...what exactly has changed so much since the Referendum to make you do quite such an about turn then, RR?

My guess would be the pathetic nonsense suggestions the EU has thrown on the table, in its farcical stance of negotiation.

1. Its solution to Ireland, is to separate NI from the UK its sovereign nation? Perhaps they'd like to try that with Catalan?
2. Its arrogant stance on cherry picking, then doing that very thing.
We will deal, but you can't negotiate with anyone else.
We still want your fishing waters
You have to abide by EU law

The latest one. TRUMP- if you impose tariffs, you have to include the UK (shock / horror)

See the irony here yet?

[roger_ramjet]

‘Brilliant post Roger’? You might want to ask him why he voted ‘Remain’.
In the meantime...I’ll ask...what exactly has changed so much since the Referendum to make you do quite such an about turn then, RR?

Absolutely nothing has changed.

There has been no about turn, rather a recognition of the way we are going forward.

Those constitutional dilemmas (aka sovereignty) were always the negatives that lead me to sit on the fence pre vote and they contrasted/offset the positives of a customs union. It was always that "simple" a choice in my head. The accountant in me voted remain, the democrat in me wanted to vote out.

When the national vote was to leave, then I took the removal of non democratic powers as the positive of leaving. Always look on the bright side of life.... especially when unsure which side of the fence is the best compromise.

[ramAnag]

Oh c’mon Roger...your post #3321 represents a total condemnation of the EU from someone who voted ‘Remain’...and then you enter May mode to claim, ‘absolutely nothing has changed’.
You were a Remainer with reservations...I totally get that...I even share many of your reservations, but your 3.54 post is OTT even to the point that OTTTTR applauded it.
You voted Remain but had concerns...how do you get from there to today given that virtually everything that has happened since seems to have had negative connotations for the UK?

[AdiSalisbury]

Do those negative connotations include the EU showing it's true colours?

[Manofpride]

Of course the EU are trying to stall and make problems, their main cash provider is leaving! They’ve milked us for years and it’s about to stop! Worried? They’ve a right to be. When we leave their walls will be a tumbling!

[ramAnag]

We are the ones who’ve decided to leave...to change ‘trains’ mid journey with no idea about the new destination.
How do you expect the EU to react? Their duty is to their members and we are in the process of giving up that membership.
When you find a bank, building society or, perish the thought, football club that continues to care about your well being once you’ve closed your account or not renewed your season ticket do let me know.

[MadAmster]

German industrialists are pushing Merkel et al to go easy as they see themselves losing a huge amount of trade if the barriers are "too high". French, Italian, Spanish, Swedish car manufacturers are stocking up on diapers at the thought of losing (one of?) their biggest export markets. Poland, along with a dozen more member countries are trying to combine to dethrone the Franco-German power base in the EU. If the "wrong" coalition ends up in power following the recent Italian elections then the EU will also have their hands full with them.

All is not rosy in the EU garden. Rocky times ahead for the EU and the UK whether Brexit goes through or not.

I might think of moving to Oz or join the Canucks but then you are a party to CETA.......

[MadAmster]

.... and now a German MEP joins in......


"German MEP Hans-Olaf Henkel continued his bid to attempt to achieve a new deal for Britain in order to stop Brexit.

He said: “Last week, the CEO of the port of Dover went to Brussels and presented his view of Brexit.

“He made it very clear, if the 10,000 trucks going in and out of Dover every day is only held up by two minutes because of Brexit, there would be a 17-mile queue outside Dover, and equivalent chaos outside Dunkirk and Calais.”

The German added that the remaining EU27 will endure a larger cost from Brexit than the British.

“In other words, it is very clear that Brexit remains a lose-lose situation,” he said.

“What surprises me, everybody except the Brexiteers hates Brexit, but there is nobody in this house trying to stop it.

“It’s time, Mr President, that you make Britain a new offer, and offer that Britain can’t refuse, an offer that gives Britain what they always wanted.”

Mr Henkel said the UK should have more control over immigration in a bid to keep them in the EU, a suggestion met by Brexiteers to his side.""