OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

Ok rA why do they need to be around to get it over the line? Anyway as I've pointed out Cummins will be there to get it over the line as he doesn't leave until Christmas, it will be signed sealed and delivered by then! The guy who is leaving now Cain, is Director of Communications and this is partly due to the appointment of the Press Secretary and partly due to tension within No 10 about the power that Cain had as Johnson's most trusted aide.

Those two were really only interested in the "project" which was Brexit.

Your right something is going on, Brexit is nearly done unless you can enlighten me as to how that isn't the case? As I've said before a deal will be done we will leave on 31 December. Not sure the architects need to be in their current posts to celebrate that, in fact it might be in their interests to be paddling away from the "scene of the crime" before reality strikes!


When he became PM, Johnson promptly installed Cummings as the most powerful aide in No 10, and appointed a large number of Cummings’ Vote Leave colleagues to run policy, and everything else, in Downing Street. In many respects it was a Vote Leave administration more than a Conservative administration. Cummings has never been liked by the party he was a means to an end, that end has been achieved, unless you can come up with a scenario whereby Brexit won't happen?

Of course Johnson has to shift the agenda, as a government largely elected on Brexit, he needs to try and get through Covid-19 and re*****ise the party before he gets shafted by the Tory grandees, which is likely to happen long before the public get a chance to vote again.

Which I guess is what I’m asking...has there been a change of policy - like for instance an extension in the the light of the pandemic - and a subsequent fall out which they are now starting to ‘paddle away from’? Has it been decided that we’re going to have a ‘No Deal’ Brexit so their work is done...or - outside possibility I know - has the Government seen sense, possibly in the light of best mate Donald’s imminent departure, and decided to row back from the brink with, as I think you have been suggesting for some time, results in a much more benign Brexit which, although nothing like as good as the deal we enjoyed as full EU members, might do less damage?

I did Andy, for thirty years - even met Margaret Beckett - but oddly she didn’t confide in me as regards the workings of the Home Office.

[Andy_Faber]

I did Andy, for thirty years - even met Margaret Beckett - but oddly she didn’t confide in me as regards the workings of the Home Office.

I didn't mean Whitehall politics, I meant The Common Room

[Geoff Parkstone]

Trying to stop the piano teacher pissing the entire drama budget away on the nativity play* in the first term sort of politics?

*Other religions are available

[Andy_Faber]

Trying to stop the piano teacher pissing the entire drama budget away on the nativity play* in the first term sort of politics?

*Other religions are available

changing the subject but its sad you need to add that even in jest, you'd be a natural for TV or radio news

[ramAnag]

I didn't mean Whitehall politics, I meant The Common Room

‘Common Room’? You’ve been watching too much Harry Potter.
Just ’Staffrooms’ where I worked and I don’t imagine internal politics was any more of an issue in the public rather than the private sector.

[Andy_Faber]

‘Common Room’? You’ve been watching too much Harry Potter.
Just ’Staffrooms’ where I worked and I don’t imagine internal politics was any more of an issue in the public rather than the private sector.

Sorry, I was at schoool in the70's, so to use the current phraseology, 'outdated' language, and possibly 'offensive', who knows these days

[swaledale]

Which I guess is what I’m asking...has there been a change of policy - like for instance an extension in the the light of the pandemic - and a subsequent fall out which they are now starting to ‘paddle away from’? Has it been decided that we’re going to have a ‘No Deal’ Brexit so their work is done...or - outside possibility I know - has the Government seen sense, possibly in the light of best mate Donald’s imminent departure, and decided to row back from the brink with, as I think you have been suggesting for some time, results in a much more benign Brexit which, although nothing like as good as the deal we enjoyed as full EU members, might do less damage?

I did Andy, for thirty years - even met Margaret Beckett - but oddly she didn’t confide in me as regards the workings of the Home Office.

No rA there hasn't which is what was explained two posts before, plus others dampening your conspiracy theory - for a start Cummins had signalled about 3 months ago he would probably leave at the end of this year. So its not new, its not a surprise change its what was always on the cards and has been in certain media for about a month.


I fear that the benign Brexit has been tossed away, we could have gone down the customs union route, but Cummins and the hard Brexiteers have made sure that won't happen - if Cummins was leaving now, then one might say that was a possibility but he isn't, by the time he leaves it will have been agreed.

We wont leave without a deal, I was always sceptical that we would, but the Pandemic has made that a no no. So we will get a deal, not as good as we could have had but one which is better than no deal.

The other aid leaving is just him being thwarted in becoming Johnsons Chief of Staff, so no impact on Brexit at all.

[Geoff Parkstone]

‘Common Room’? You’ve been watching too much Harry Potter.
Just ’Staffrooms’ where I worked and I don’t imagine internal politics was any more of an issue in the public rather than the private sector.

It was a staff room when I was at school. If you ever felt the urge for a cigarette but no-one had been into town to acquire the statutory "10 Sovereign" or "Number 6" all you needed to do was go stand outside said room for 5 minutes and breathe in the air sneaking out under the door. Mostly Benson & Hedges too, the teachers dealt in a higher quality bifter

[ramAnag]

No rA there hasn't which is what was explained two posts before, plus others dampening your conspiracy theory - for a start Cummins had signalled about 3 months ago he would probably leave at the end of this year. So its not new, its not a surprise change its what was always on the cards and has been in certain media for about a month.


I fear that the benign Brexit has been tossed away, we could have gone down the customs union route, but Cummins and the hard Brexiteers have made sure that won't happen - if Cummins was leaving now, then one might say that was a possibility but he isn't, by the time he leaves it will have been agreed.

We wont leave without a deal, I was always sceptical that we would, but the Pandemic has made that a no no. So we will get a deal, not as good as we could have had but one which is better than no deal.

The other aid leaving is just him being thwarted in becoming Johnsons Chief of Staff, so no impact on Brexit at all.

I didn’t offer a ‘conspiracy theory’, Swale, never do...I just asked a question and it is maybe one that has acquired more substance seeing as Cummings has actually gone completely during the course of the day.

You speak with great authority and dogmatism about such matters. I do wonder sometimes how you can be so certain...what is it you actually do?

[ramAnag]

Sorry, I was at schoool in the70's, so to use the current phraseology, 'outdated' language, and possibly 'offensive', who knows these days

I was at school in the early seventies and working in one from 1977 onwards. Always a staff room...although we did have a 6th form common room or ‘den of iniquity’ as the Head referred to it. Maybe you went to Hogwarts.

[swaledale]

I didn’t offer a ‘conspiracy theory’, Swale, never do...I just asked a question and it is maybe one that has acquired more substance seeing as Cummings has actually gone completely during the course of the day.

You speak with great authority and dogmatism about such matters. I do wonder sometimes how you can be so certain...what is it you actually do?

I agree that the fact that it appears to be the case, though one waits for actual confirmation, its all its been reported at the moment which is journalistic code for we don't actually know.

rA I have been involved on Brexit with both politicians and civil servants. I know a number but in respect of Brexit the following are facts.

Its not impossible but would be a major revision and take the agreement of those in cabinet who are proponents of a hard Brexit for there to be significant change in the strategy.

The deadline for an extension has passed. Of course the UK could go down on bended knee and plead with the EU for one, but thats unlikely for the reasons given above.

The same applies to some form of soft Brexit - plus there is the complication that this would require approval by all 27 member states, there is not enough time to do this before 31 December, in fact there is barely enough time to ratify a deal.
We will reach a deal, regrettably the deal is a thin one, it will be less of an economic blow than no deal, but it will inevitably result in millions of pounds of additional costs for business and tax payers (50,000 extra customs officers for example).

A couple of people I know were in on the zoom chat with government the other week, they were appalled at the governments attitude, which was its up to business to sort themselves out, which in normal times would be hard enough - seeing as nobody actually knows at the moment what sort of arrangements will be in place as there is no certainty what the circumstances will be. The necessary IT systems aren't up and running and they are new and we all know how long it takes an IT system to actually work!

In respect of Cummins and Cain, the word is its not Brexit, but a major fall out within the backroom teams in No10, Johnson is under pressure by Tory MP's who are nervous that instead of the triumph of having done Brexit, the government is increasingly looking like a bunch of incompetents who say one thing and then days or even hours later do a U turn and do exactly what BoJo had explicitly said he would not do in any circumstances - viz, free school meals, viz furlough scheme having argued the toss with Manchester, viz, exams, viz another national lockdown etc etc. Someone counted 14 complete U turns on policy this year, not exactly a demonstration of a government with a clear strategy, even if we are in unusual times!

So no I don't see a major change, the "Norway" option is off the table and basically we are ****ed!

[ramAnag]

Fair enough, thanks for the explanation...still don’t know what you actually do that makes you so well informed but never mind.
Things do seem curious at the moment. I do wonder how much impact the election of Biden, for which I am inordinately grateful, has made and Carrie Symonds appears ever more influential...can’t ever really remember that being the case before as far as any PM’s partners are concerned.
We’ll see.

[swaledale]

Fair enough, thanks for the explanation...still don’t know what you actually do that makes you so well informed but never mind.
Things do seem curious at the moment. I do wonder how much impact the election of Biden, for which I am inordinately grateful, has made and Carrie Symonds appears ever more influential...can’t ever really remember that being the case before as far as any PM’s partners are concerned.
We’ll see.

These days I do zilch, apart from a little part time consulting, the last lockdown convinced me that it was time to bascially retire. Up until then as I have explained in numerous posts I have been working as a consultant assisting business with the impact of Brexit on their operations, looking at operational and administrative issues, this includes impact of potential tariffs, differences in standards for both transactions (services) and goods, whether to move HQ's or just branch offices into an EU country (Dublin is very popular right now!)- employee issues - recruitment, retention of staff (impact of free movement ending ).

[Egyptianram]

No wonder you retired you must have been bored to death!

[swaledale]

No wonder you retired you must have been bored to death!

Hardly, the past four years have been very interesting and very lucrative. Also very eye opening as to just how little those who initiated Brexit actually knew about what they were doing.