OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

Actually you do. O'Brien is the mirror image of you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vQdd7qxXgc

Actually...I really don’t. Against my better judgement I was intrigued for a moment, and then I saw the logo behind the presenter ...a bulldog, a Union Jack.......and all recommended by TTR!
No thanks...not for me, life’s too short but entirely typical of you to launch into personal attack rather than respond to what he’d said.

[MadAmster]

Actually you do. O'Brien is the mirror image of you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vQdd7qxXgc

All O'B did was quote headlines from "newspapers" owned by Toraidh supporting, tax exile, multi billionaires.

[swaledale]

It has been the perfect cover for Brexit but the effects of Covid are now coming to an end and like a retreating tide, it is revealing what is really going on beneath the surface. The latest quarterly trade figures paint a grim picture of UK trade. Since 2018, which the ONS thinks is the best guide, our exports to the EU have shrunk, from £43.4bn in the second quarter of 2018 to £40billion now.
But even these figures do not give the whole picture. Because as Covid restrictions and disruption ended, the world’s economies woke up and globaltrade routes reawakened. Or they did for nearly everyone.

For some strange reason Global Britain – the new world-beating behemoth, suddenly freed from the chains of EU control and ready to stride around the world cutting new trade deals left, right and centre – seems to have stayed in bed.

The evidence is clear. The UK is now a less globally important trading nation, is rapidly being left behind by its rivals and trade is becoming a smaller part of its economy. If you don’t trust me you just have to look at the latest analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s own economic watchdog.

[MadAmster]

Wages up 4 and a bit % but when you take inflation into account the real terms income has gone down by 3%.

Also intriguing to know that the 4+% is mainly down to double figure rises in the financial services industry. The rest are down at around a 2% average and some have 0%. Their real term income is down by between 5% and 7%.

[ramAnag]

Wages up 4 and a bit % but when you take inflation into account the real terms income has gone down by 3%.

Also intriguing to know that the 4+% is mainly down to double figure rises in the financial services industry. The rest are down at around a 2% average and some have 0%. Their real term income is down by between 5% and 7%.

Yeah but...yeah but...none of this has anything at all to do with Brexit. Nothing at all...not even the tiniest little bit.
It’s all going swingingly...the ‘future’s bright’, just as Man of Pride predicted and Uncles Boris and Nigel promised back in 2016.
We have our independence back, we can even set our own tax rates, drive on the left, drink actual pints, eat bent bananas, stand unashamedly in front of the Union Jack, join the slower queues at airports and pay more for fuel than almost everyone else...oh, wait a minute!

[Ramshank72]

I presume Amster is looking at Average Weekly Earnings inflation in real terms, which is provided by ONS as an adjustment against CPI, readily available for anyone to interrogate, you can download it from the ONS site and see for yourself.
The problem with these % stats, is that they only represent an average for the working population, rather than real term impact on a personal level.
For example, NLW increases 6.62% to £9.50ph in April, which sounds great, until you realise that for many people on that wage have seen their cost of living increase by 20+%, as unfortunately food, energy, fuel etc doesn't increase as a % of salary.
I'm not dismissing anything as being rosey here, as the stats indicate that the tale is worse for those close / on / beneath the bread line.
But it is difficult to draw any direct Brexit conclusions on these particular stats (for or against), as there is no reliable data set to draw upon.
I think it was Swale that said earlier on in the thread that it would be impossible to clearly draw any such conclusions on the data as other matters will mask it, he was right, unfortunately this stuff proves nothing.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Look out Ramshank, expect incoming flak from Granmaa (anag). How dare you suggest Brexit is not the root of all evil

[Andy_Faber]

I presume Amster is looking at Average Weekly Earnings inflation in real terms, which is provided by ONS as an adjustment against CPI, readily available for anyone to interrogate, you can download it from the ONS site and see for yourself.
The problem with these % stats, is that they only represent an average for the working population, rather than real term impact on a personal level.
For example, NLW increases 6.62% to £9.50ph in April, which sounds great, until you realise that for many people on that wage have seen their cost of living increase by 20+%, as unfortunately food, energy, fuel etc doesn't increase as a % of salary.
I'm not dismissing anything as being rosey here, as the stats indicate that the tale is worse for those close / on / beneath the bread line.
But it is difficult to draw any direct Brexit conclusions on these particular stats (for or against), as there is no reliable data set to draw upon.
I think it was Swale that said earlier on in the thread that it would be impossible to clearly draw any such conclusions on the data as other matters will mask it, he was right, unfortunately this stuff proves nothing.

But it does prove/suggest that there are posters prepared to look at issues in the round and ones who select data / anecdotes to promote a position

[ramAnag]

Look out Ramshank, expect incoming flak from Granmaa (anag). How dare you suggest Brexit is not the root of all evil

Oh well done Mr ‘Spongertakeoff’...very good, only taken you six years.
Nice to see you put your head over the parapet after so much silence over Johnson and Brexit.
The difference between you and Ramshank is that he at least presents an argument and doesn’t just resort to juvenile ridicule however, to get back on topic. Do I blame Brexit as the ‘root of all evil’? I don’t think so...although I do think of it as a huge mistake made by gullible people who were misled by liars.
At this point you usually run out of answers and start making yawning noises however...if you, or anyone else, could provide any actual benefits, or likely benefits to have arisen from the Referendum decision of six years ago it would be hugely appreciated.

[Andy_Faber]

At this point you usually run out of answers and start making yawning noises

In defence of GP, he's provided plenty of answers over the past six years, many well thought through on complex issues (in the same way Ramshank has above), but when the responses he gets are so one-dimensional (mainly from yourself, sometimes from Swale) its no surprise he's resorted to yawning. I wondered about GP/RR's change over the years but now I get it, and its the same with me (in my case Swale more than yourself, and insulting rather than one-dimensional). Maybe Ramshank will be more resilient

[ramAnag]

Andy...there are essentially three long term defenders of Brexit on here. In descending order of commitment...Tricky, GP and yourself.
None of you have been able to provide any sensible and realistic advantages of Brexit imo.
We all know what Tricky’s, not very hidden, agenda is. GP invariably resorts to silly minor insults and you just bang on and on and on about Swale who is much better than me, and certainly much better than you, as far as the economic detail is concerned.
Ramshank apart, who is more than capable of constructing an argument, albeit one any Remainers will disagree with, the only relevant point I’ve heard on here has come from MA who, despite - I think - recognising all the self destructive aspects of the isolation that Brexit has brought about for the UK, did at least identify his objection to the EU becoming a ‘United States of Europe’. I don’t agree but it is a valid concern.

The whole thing, I fully accept, has become very, very boring...but then that’s partly why we got in this mess in the first place...the electorate were bored into wanting to bring an end to it all. Indeed the only thing more boring and repetitive is you going on and on about Swale.

Swale did this...Swale did that...Swale’s too insulting...you and Swale are like two peas in a pod...you always defend Swale...blah, blah, blah.

I’m sure Ramshank can more than look after himself and no one has attacked his view. Equally none of your Brexit gang of three has been able, or willing, to offer any comeback to Swale’s comments (8253) about the way in which Covid has ‘cloaked’ the impact of Brexit on the UK or his figures about our current economic situation.

For my own part...where politics is concerned, the major targets of my political observations over the last six years have been, in no particular order...Johnson, Trump, Farage, Gove and Williamson. You, Tricky and GP have constantly sought to belittle such criticism...looking at where they all are now it seems my views have been thoroughly justified.

[Ramshank72]

My ears are burning!
For the record, I haven't made any argument, I'm just dismissing the use of random numbers being picked from statistical data which cannot be directly attributable to the debate, to form an argument for or against it, which Andy had understood.
For example, from the same set of data, Real AWE was positive between Aug 20 and Oct 21, maxing at +5.3% using a 3 month average in June 21, or even +5.9% in April 21 using single month figures. This could easily be translated as a roaring success one year on from Brexit despite the constraints of a worldwide pandemic.
I'm not making that argument, but it demonstrates how easy it is, and a journalist with some good writing skills (which I lack, give me a spreadsheet any day!) could make it even more convincing.

[ramAnag]

My ears are burning!
For the record, I haven't made any argument, I'm just dismissing the use of random numbers being picked from statistical data which cannot be directly attributable to the debate, to form an argument for or against it, which Andy had understood.
For example, from the same set of data, Real AWE was positive between Aug 20 and Oct 21, maxing at +5.3% using a 3 month average in June 21, or even +5.9% in April 21 using single month figures. This could easily be translated as a roaring success one year on from Brexit despite the constraints of a worldwide pandemic.
I'm not making that argument, but it demonstrates how easy it is, and a journalist with some good writing skills (which I lack, give me a spreadsheet any day!) could make it even more convincing.

I stand corrected and respect your opinion. I thought you were arguing that the impact of Covid made it difficult to assess the impact of Brexit. I accept that possibility, in part, as far as the economics are concerned though not as far as the changed view the rest of the World, most particularly our nearest geographical neighbours, have of us is concerned.

[swaledale]

I presume Amster is looking at Average Weekly Earnings inflation in real terms, which is provided by ONS as an adjustment against CPI, readily available for anyone to interrogate, you can download it from the ONS site and see for yourself.
The problem with these % stats, is that they only represent an average for the working population, rather than real term impact on a personal level.
For example, NLW increases 6.62% to £9.50ph in April, which sounds great, until you realise that for many people on that wage have seen their cost of living increase by 20+%, as unfortunately food, energy, fuel etc doesn't increase as a % of salary.
I'm not dismissing anything as being rosey here, as the stats indicate that the tale is worse for those close / on / beneath the bread line.
But it is difficult to draw any direct Brexit conclusions on these particular stats (for or against), as there is no reliable data set to draw upon.
I think it was Swale that said earlier on in the thread that it would be impossible to clearly draw any such conclusions on the data as other matters will mask it, he was right, unfortunately this stuff proves nothing.

I as you would expect disagree, for a start looking at GDP, we are now running £400 million a week below pre Brexit era.

Of course a set of figures on their own doesn't show the whole picture and in that your right, but given the impacts upon SME's of exporting to the EU, a many have either given up, its too costly, or have shifted a section of their operations to the EU, losing, both the revenue, the tax income, the jobs, the supply chain and so and so forth, a real economic hit.

I spent a great deal of my time before and after the Brexit vote advising businesses how to ensure they had continuity of trade afterwards. From my own work I know that millions of pounds of tax and economic activity no longer touch the UK.

Indeed that arch Brexiteer Rees-Mogg moved part of his business to Dublin so that it would not be affected by Brexit!! I mean when one of those pushing for a hard Brexit does that you can be sure they are well aware of what the real affect will be.

On the other hand, if someone somewhere can point to an actual tangible economic benefit that Brexit has brought the UK I would be overjoyed to learn of it.

As for the Trade deals, well most have simply rolled over existing EU deals, but New Zealand and Australia are piss poor, basically within a decade, they will have tariff free access to the UK market which will basically **** our farmers for a start.

Now what is interesting is that Northern island businesses are experiencing economic growth, increased trade with the Eu, thats why apart form a few teaks, they are really not that fussed about the NI protocol and equally why the UK Government is fussed, the last thing it wants is a living example of part of the UK benefitting from being in the single market and customs union, demonstrating the full economic cost of Brexit.

[swaledale]

My ears are burning!
For the record, I haven't made any argument, I'm just dismissing the use of random numbers being picked from statistical data which cannot be directly attributable to the debate, to form an argument for or against it, which Andy had understood.
For example, from the same set of data, Real AWE was positive between Aug 20 and Oct 21, maxing at +5.3% using a 3 month average in June 21, or even +5.9% in April 21 using single month figures. This could easily be translated as a roaring success one year on from Brexit despite the constraints of a worldwide pandemic.
I'm not making that argument, but it demonstrates how easy it is, and a journalist with some good writing skills (which I lack, give me a spreadsheet any day!) could make it even more convincing.

it wasn't a set of random numbers though!!