OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

Britain’s overall economic performance today is worse than forecast before and after the 2016 referendum
When comparing latest estimates with the forecasts before and after the 2016 referendum, our analysis shows that the economic hit from Brexit has been greater than forecast on all but one indicator – the exports of goods. The actual GDP hit is more than double the mean forecast, vindicating those who were accused of fearmongering by Brexiteers.

The UK economy is estimated to be 5.5 per cent poorer now than it would have been had it stayed in the EU, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform that compares the UK’s current performance with a counterfactual UK that did not leave the EU. Imports and exports of goods have been hit significantly and so was investment. It is estimated that, had the UK stayed in the EU, tax revenues would have been about £40 billion higher than today.

[swaledale]

Sick to death of hearing the energy prices to do with not being in the EU.

THIS IS bRITISH GOVERNMENT POLICY **** UP. OWN IT.

Pampering to an agenda of green, without thinking it through
Lack of investment
Lack of exploiting what we can do nationally.
Over taxing
Not reeling energy companies in.

You don't have to be in the EU to do any of that.
Considering we have no storage anymore and have to bring leccy in from France, leaves you exposed to the full market price.
That is unacceptable and its time the previous/current/future governments accepted that.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/19/e...ner/index.html

Except that has been the counter argument used by Brexiteers many times, that x, y and even z weren't possible because of the EU, or that certain rules and regulations were "imposed" by the EU, when in fact neither was true, it suited the government of the day and they blamed the EU. You can't argue ti both ways, but obviously you will try!

Of the issues raised by you, you clearly ahve been listening to right wing media sources too much. But lets consider the points.

Pampering to the green agenda - in what way and are you saying there isn't a climate issue or its been managed incorrectly?

Lack of investment in what exactly? There has been considerable investment in green energy though not with a consistent strategy.

Lack of exploiting what can be done nationally, explain what you mean by that?

Over taxing, really not sure what your getting out, who? Energy producers, consumers?

Really no idea what not reeling energy companies in means? Not applying a windfall tax?

Yes storage of gas is an issue, but that's not why we import electricity from France (actually that's a two way connector, whereby surplus power generated flows to where it can be used in the country. We are however heavily dependent upon Norway and the Middle East for gas as a consequence of shutting our storage facility.

We are exposed to the full market price because that's how energy is traded, even if we were self sufficient, it would not mean operating outside of that market, but the UK government could remove or change the way Electricity is priced. Currently it based on the cost of generating electricity from gas, which is on average 40% higher than that generated in other ways (i.e. wind, solar etc.). Thats why electricity prices have increased along with gas prices.

The governments support to domestic consumers has increased energy company profits with tax payers money, a combination of windfall tax on those and reduction in VAT would be fairer.

Anyway the wholesale price of gas has fallen considerably so come June/July all will be well (cough cough).

Let me put two other points in.

[Trickytreesreds]

Pampering to the green agenda - in what way and are you saying there isn't a climate issue or its been managed incorrectly?

Pampering, to the fast reduction of coal mining /coal burning before we were anywhere near ready to do so. Especially as we are sat on the stuff, yet then fetched it in from abroad(carbon footprint? Pampering to the anti nuclear movement, and either not building or expanding. Wind and solar sounds wonderful, until the wind dont blow, or the sun don't shine

Lack of investment in what exactly? There has been considerable investment in green energy though not with a consistent strategy.

Yes but that is all they invested in. More windmills etc. See above and failure to maintain the gas .oil beds currently being under major repairs. Then lets not forget the storage sites. Our surplus gas, pumped off to Europe all summer, who tanked it.

Lack of exploiting what can be done nationally, explain what you mean by that?

The national grid, falling apart. ( wait till the leccy car craze kicks in). The nuclear stations coming up to retirement- no new ones. The so called mini nuclear stations by Rolls Royce> Where are they?

Over taxing, really not sure what your getting out, who? Energy producers, consumers?

consumers over taxed in vat



Really no idea what not reeling energy companies in means? Not applying a windfall tax?

Windfall tax , call it what you want. A reasonable profit is ok, but either they pay or the unit price falls to compensate the vast incomings.

Yes the gas price has fallen and why hasn't the government jumped in? Because just like petrol, when the base cost goes up, the purchase price increases over night. But it never comes down the same way. TAXES TAXES TAXES YIPPEE

NB, you can quote your climate crisis all you like. In the grand scheme of things, the UK is doing bugger all to the over all picture of CO2 emissions, whilst the big 5 increase India/China/USA/Russia/Japan. We could go to net zero , yet that wouldn't even make a dent in the CO2 emissions China is about to do, with the 175 gigawatts of coal fired plants about to come on stream.
In the mean time, the economy dies/the public suffer fuel pverty/ prices rise fir goods.

Until you get the Big 3 sat down at the table, all this is like pissing in the wind.

[swaledale]

Pampering to the green agenda - in what way and are you saying there isn't a climate issue or its been managed incorrectly?

Pampering, to the fast reduction of coal mining /coal burning before we were anywhere near ready to do so. Especially as we are sat on the stuff, yet then fetched it in from abroad(carbon footprint? Pampering to the anti nuclear movement, and either not building or expanding. Wind and solar sounds wonderful, until the wind dont blow, or the sun don't shine

Lack of investment in what exactly? There has been considerable investment in green energy though not with a consistent strategy.

Yes but that is all they invested in. More windmills etc. See above and failure to maintain the gas .oil beds currently being under major repairs. Then lets not forget the storage sites. Our surplus gas, pumped off to Europe all summer, who tanked it.

Lack of exploiting what can be done nationally, explain what you mean by that?

The national grid, falling apart. ( wait till the leccy car craze kicks in). The nuclear stations coming up to retirement- no new ones. The so called mini nuclear stations by Rolls Royce> Where are they?

Over taxing, really not sure what your getting out, who? Energy producers, consumers?

consumers over taxed in vat



Really no idea what not reeling energy companies in means? Not applying a windfall tax?

Windfall tax , call it what you want. A reasonable profit is ok, but either they pay or the unit price falls to compensate the vast incomings.

Yes the gas price has fallen and why hasn't the government jumped in? Because just like petrol, when the base cost goes up, the purchase price increases over night. But it never comes down the same way. TAXES TAXES TAXES YIPPEE

NB, you can quote your climate crisis all you like. In the grand scheme of things, the UK is doing bugger all to the over all picture of CO2 emissions, whilst the big 5 increase India/China/USA/Russia/Japan. We could go to net zero , yet that wouldn't even make a dent in the CO2 emissions China is about to do, with the 175 gigawatts of coal fired plants about to come on stream.
In the mean time, the economy dies/the public suffer fuel pverty/ prices rise fir goods.

Until you get the Big 3 sat down at the table, all this is like pissing in the wind.

Reasonable points but some assumptions.

You can blame Maggie for closing the pits and then importing the stuff a purely political decision, though also closely aligned to the Tories buy it from anywhere if its cheaper than home grown. Cameron came in talking about cutting the green crap, but failed to actually do anything, so agree lack of strategic approach.

The point about UK being a relatively small green house gas emitter, compared to India, China et al is fine, but with a proper green strategy, including a programme of insulation of existing homes and ensuring new ones were energy efficient and investing in new technology the UK could have made an economic benefit from leading the way.

We haven't pandered to the anti nuclear movement for decades, unfortunately the procurement of new nuclear technology has been piss poor and very expensive and again the consumer is being made to pay the price through energy bills, instead of government through taxes.

Oh yes the grid is going to fall over if we all get electric vehicles, but that's a consequence of privatisation, short term profits, no strategic thinking.

Wholesale prices have fallen, but firms buy in advance, but yes government likes the tax revenue.

It is complicated but wouldn't disagree with most of what you say.

[Trickytreesreds]

Reasonable points but some assumptions.

You can blame Maggie for closing the pits and then importing the stuff a purely political decision, though also closely aligned to the Tories buy it from anywhere if its cheaper than home grown. Cameron came in talking about cutting the green crap, but failed to actually do anything, so agree lack of strategic approach.

The point about UK being a relatively small green house gas emitter, compared to India, China et al is fine, but with a proper green strategy, including a programme of insulation of existing homes and ensuring new ones were energy efficient and investing in new technology the UK could have made an economic benefit from leading the way.

We haven't pandered to the anti nuclear movement for decades, unfortunately the procurement of new nuclear technology has been piss poor and very expensive and again the consumer is being made to pay the price through energy bills, instead of government through taxes.

Oh yes the grid is going to fall over if we all get electric vehicles, but that's a consequence of privatisation, short term profits, no strategic thinking.

Wholesale prices have fallen, but firms buy in advance, but yes government likes the tax revenue.

It is complicated but wouldn't disagree with most of what you say.

Well thank you for a reasonable reply.

I am not defending the Tories or Labour.
From Thatchers political agendas to Blairs blinkers, we have failed.
What we have done, is akin to selling your car before you have a replacement, then realising you cannot get to work.
It is gross negligence.

I am not against the green push, but what have done is stupidity beyond all reason.
You can get rid of fossil fuels as soon as you have back ups, we never have.

So, we are left with an energy policy that
can't deliver.
Costs more when we do
No storage
Reliant of everyone else to make that up?

Lets hope the USA don't blow up the power lines in the channel.

[swaledale]

Well thank you for a reasonable reply.

I am not defending the Tories or Labour.
From Thatchers political agendas to Blairs blinkers, we have failed.
What we have done, is akin to selling your car before you have a replacement, then realising you cannot get to work.
It is gross negligence.

I am not against the green push, but what have done is stupidity beyond all reason.
You can get rid of fossil fuels as soon as you have back ups, we never have.

So, we are left with an energy policy that
can't deliver.
Costs more when we do
No storage
Reliant of everyone else to make that up?

Lets hope the USA don't blow up the power lines in the channel.

Indeed, the short term approach is criminal. The difference in energy prices is down to Brexit in as much that the UK government have chosen a higher energy cap, a lower level of windfall tax and hasn't reduced the tax to the consumer.

As you say, governments of whatever persuasion seem unable to adopt a strategy in the interests of their citizens.

I firmly believe that if Blair had exercised the controls on free movement for the Eastern European nations that joined when they were available Brexit would probably not have happened.

[SithHappens]

Werent we promised lower energy prices as we wouldnt have to charge a minimum rate of VAT that the EU insist on?

[ramAnag]

Werent we promised lower energy prices as we wouldnt have to charge a minimum rate of VAT that the EU insist on?

We were indeed, Sith...several times.
Tbf, at the time no one could have envisaged the impact of Putin on oil and gas prices however it is another to add to the list of Brexit promises that have never materialised.

[swaledale]

What really made me chuckle was when Truss as part of her rehabilitation into politics, gave a speech whereby she was basically slagging off the Chinese and suggesting that there needed to be economic cooperation between the west to counter China. No **** Truss I thought, so your suggesting something akin to the EU?!

That couple with Johnson suggesting that Ukraine needed to join the EU asap, had my sides splitting!

[Trickytreesreds]

Well the EU way, was siding up with Putin, despite being warned by Trump not to.
They laughed and laughed. The silly hair man daring to tell us Germans etc that we don't know better?

The net result is, the taps are off, so Europe demands increase and the price goes up.
Us having succesive stupid government policies means we suffer the worst.
But the EU is blameless of course.

[swaledale]

Well the EU way, was siding up with Putin, despite being warned by Trump not to.
They laughed and laughed. The silly hair man daring to tell us Germans etc that we don't know better?

The net result is, the taps are off, so Europe demands increase and the price goes up.
Us having succesive stupid government policies means we suffer the worst.
But the EU is blameless of course.

This Trump who cast doubts on the USA's commitment to NATO and so emboldened Putin?

Throughout the 2016 presidential election, President Trump not only refused to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin, but was even friendly and accommodating in his remarks. In his own words, President Trump called President Putin “highly respected." More recently, President Trump put the U.S. on equal moral footing with Russia when responding to Bill O’Reilly’s question about Putin being a "killer," saying "We've got a lot of killers... you think our country's so innocent?" This is absolutely false moral equivalence, and unheard of for the President of the United States to insult and demean the country he leads.



Trump: Not only does his past and current team have ties to Russia, but the President himself also does. He has travelled to Russia extensively, done business there often, and has ties to Russian interests. In a May 2017 meeting in the Oval Office, he revealed highly classified information to the Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.

To say that Trump warned the EU about Putin is wide of the mark, the guy positively admired Putin.

Its true that the EU was for many years trying to have a constructive relationship with Russia and Putin, which on the face of it would seem sensible, the more involved in trade and mutual cooperation a large neighbour is, the less incentive there is to wage war. Indeed that was working for a while, geo politics is complex, but working with Russia was the right policy, unfortunately Putin as he has got older has become more unhinged.

Lets us not forget the Tory party has both personal and financial connections with Russia and has positively welcomed Russian money into the UK, not for nothing is London known as the Russian money laundry! So blaming the EU for this is again only partially true, the Uk were equally culpable.

A energy strategy that saw dependence upon gas from one source, Russia was foolish, but that was Germany rather than the EU, I'm guessing they won't make that mistake again.

So no the Eu isn't blameless, nor do i think they are a perfect organisation, never have done, but to think in an age of super powers like Russia, India, china, the Uk is better off economically and politically outside the EU is just not true.

Plus Brexit has if anything encouraged Putin and the break up of the Eu would suit him just fine.

[Trickytreesreds]

Swale, he did warn Germany. They laughed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg

[SithHappens]

in good news the visa waiver we will have to pay has been pushed back to next year now.

[swaledale]

Swale, he did warn Germany. They laughed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg

Yes he warned them about depending upon Russian gas! I agree Germany's dependence upon that was a flawed strategy. Remember the 1970's oil crisis? UK in a panic, over OPEC limiting oil supplies?

Lets face it, Trump is very contradictory over many issues, some of what he says , i.e. NATO contributions is correct, but then even a stopped clock is right twice a day!! On the otherhand, it is true that Putin was keen to see Trump as president.

[Andy_Faber]

in good news the visa waiver we will have to pay has been pushed back to next year now.

Not wanting to reactivate forum wars but I did point out last year that it MAY come in this year not WOULD