Election Year or Fear!

[MadAmster]

I disagree with that last assertion. UKIP was essentially a one trick pony and attracted a wider audience and broader support than Reform because of it. Reform does not have that single purpose agenda, although it will have certain elements of UKIP old guard supporting it. For Reform to attract as much, if not a tad more, support "than 2015" is disturbing and indicative of a shift in UK ground level support. Keep your head in the sand by all means, but the share of the vote gained by Reform IS indicative of a change in the making - and not a positive change either. Parliament may have swung left yet perversely the electorate haven't.

2029, the likely date of the next election, Reform's share of the vote will be interesting. Will Tories who protest voted last week return to the Conservative fold? Might they decide they like the cut of the Red Tories jib? Will Farridge have got bored and moved on to his next well paid gig? Will he have persuaded more to join his flock?

[MadAmster]

There really are some dumb eejits on social media. Lost count of the number of people raging at the stealing of the election because RN were the biggest party in round 1 but not in round 2. It's the way the French system works. A candidate needs 50%+ to win a seat in round 1. Only 76 of the 577 seats were decided after round 1. Round 2 sees fewer candidates. Often just the top 2 go through to round 2. There's the odd 3 way fight and a couple of 4 way fights in round 2. Centrum and Left parties withdrew candidates in some districts and asked their supporters to vote for whichever of the left/centre candidates was still in the race.

Result? Le Pen's party got far less seats then they expected. Their vote was, IIRC, 10.6M in round 1, 10.1M in round 2. Not a surprise as Their opposition helped one another to keep Le Pen out. Coalition formed before the vote rather than after it. 13% of the seats had been sorted in round 1 so there was no 2nd round in those districts.

I have explained that on a couple of the posts. Nobody has, as yet, replied. Possibly because they now understand the system and din't when they went off on one.

Are supporters of the right less well educated? Looking at the number of would/could/should OFs in their posts and the transposing of their/there/they're, they probably are less well educated.

[swaledale]

2029, the likely date of the next election, Reform's share of the vote will be interesting. Will Tories who protest voted last week return to the Conservative fold? Might they decide they like the cut of the Red Tories jib? Will Farridge have got bored and moved on to his next well paid gig? Will he have persuaded more to join his flock?

Reform won't exist in 2029 it will implode under the strain of organising itself and the fact that Farage spends his time stateside.

[swaledale]

Actually, only 18,884 people voted for Kier, out of a voting population of approx 46,560,500... so 99.96% of the voting population did not vote for him.

Now now, don't confuse him with facts!

I do chuckle at thoe "proles" who that we now have a PM from a working class background, who wasn't privately educated (yes I know the school he attended went private whilst he was there), has actually had a previous career outside politics (yes I know how idiots "hate" lefty lawyers until they need one and find they can no longer afford one.) Has not made any grand promises, has adopted a non tribal, approach so far to governing, is even talking sense about prisons and appointed a guy who knows a thing or to to tackle it, isn't flashy or spouting meaningless 3 word slogans or trying to do anything but govern a ****ed up country and he complains he is "boring" and has no flashy policies!!

I mean there are several issues about Starmer and Labour which concern me, much of which (but not all) is about his leaning to far to gain the approval and votes of racists, bigots and hypocrites and big business but I am thankful we have a bunch of politicians in charge who don't come exclusively from some rich privileged background and who seem to understand that they need to have a positive impact on the lives of the ordinary voter and also explain that in reality many of the issues faced today cannot be resolved quickly and simply or by just spending more money. Its a start.

[ramAnag]

2029, the likely date of the next election, Reform's share of the vote will be interesting. Will Tories who protest voted last week return to the Conservative fold? Might they decide they like the cut of the Red Tories jib? Will Farridge have got bored and moved on to his next well paid gig? Will he have persuaded more to join his flock?

Really can’t be bothered to reply to TTR and any other sore losers. Democracy is flawed…shock, horror…but no more so now than in 2019 or even at the 2016 referendum and I don’t remember Tricky or his mate ‘Nige’ complaining then.

As for NF’s future. Let’s face it…any Party that lists Jenrick, Badenoch, Braverman and Cleverly amongst the front runners for leadership is in big trouble…as well as being suddenly irrelevant. I can see a scenario where Farage sits it out getting bored in Clacton watching the Tories going nowhere as further Party chaos unfolds before, in less than two years, he switches back to being a Conservative and goes in search of the leadership causing, as ever, further division. We’ll see.

[swaledale]

Really can’t be bothered to reply to TTR and any other sore losers. Democracy is flawed…shock, horror…but no more so now than in 2019 or even at the 2016 referendum and I don’t remember Tricky or his mate ‘Nige’ complaining then.

As for NF’s future. Let’s face it…any Party that lists Jenrick, Badenoch, Braverman and Cleverly amongst the front runners for leadership is in big trouble…as well as being suddenly irrelevant. I can see a scenario where Farage sits it out getting bored in Clacton watching the Tories going nowhere as further Party chaos unfolds before, in less than two years, he switches back to being a Conservative and goes in search of the leadership causing, as ever, further division. We’ll see.

Tempting as it is to think the Tories will crumble, history suggests that after the election of a couple of useless and/or bat**** crazy Leaders, there will be a reorganisation and eventually return in a more centrist role.

Farage is at best a very rich persons bagman and gob****e, he isn't capable of leading a paper bag anywhere.

How ironic that a right wing media and politicians, who have done so much to try and gerrymander an election result (Rees-Mogg admitting that voter ID was just that) that a) they ahve turned out to be a **** at that as they ahve been at everything they have touched and b) now think FPTP isn't "fair".

[Trickytreesreds]

Really can’t be bothered to reply to TTR and any other sore losers. Democracy is flawed…shock, horror…but no more so now than in 2019 or even at the 2016 referendum and I don’t remember Tricky or his mate ‘Nige’ complaining then.

As for NF’s future. Let’s face it…any Party that lists Jenrick, Badenoch, Braverman and Cleverly amongst the front runners for leadership is in big trouble…as well as being suddenly irrelevant. I can see a scenario where Farage sits it out getting bored in Clacton watching the Tories going nowhere as further Party chaos unfolds before, in less than two years, he switches back to being a Conservative and goes in search of the leadership causing, as ever, further division. We’ll see.

lol, you clown. How was that flawed?


Your mate has hit his first big hurdle. Sein Fein wants him to carry out his bluff promise and put British soldiers wide open to abuse. Right after hundreds of IRA murderers were let off the hook.
So then, will flip flop fold or buckle?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/keir-starmer-defends-plans-repeal-legacy-act-northern-ireland/

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/keir-starmer-defends-plans-repeal-legacy-act-northern-ireland/

this isn't going to end well

[Trickytreesreds]

Tempting as it is to think the Tories will crumble, history suggests that after the election of a couple of useless and/or bat**** crazy Leaders, there will be a reorganisation and eventually return in a more centrist role.

Farage is at best a very rich persons bagman and gob****e, he isn't capable of leading a paper bag anywhere.

How ironic that a right wing media and politicians, who have done so much to try and gerrymander an election result (Rees-Mogg admitting that voter ID was just that) that a) they ahve turned out to be a **** at that as they ahve been at everything they have touched and b) now think FPTP isn't "fair".

Well done great sage. You predicted no seats and yet they pulled the 3rd highest electorate voting, for a party only 4 years old and Farage only on board for four weeks. Keep going, your predictions do amuse me.

[Andy_Faber]

Are supporters of the right less well educated? Looking at the number of would/could/should OFs in their posts and the transposing of their/there/they're, they probably are less well educated.

Are you suggesting a correlation there? That’s a bit Swaleist of you. Of the folk I know who are right leaning there’s a massive educational spread - my brickie left school the earliest day possible with no quals (and I think he’s illiterate) and my next door neighbour is a magistrate and has more law quals than I can recount. Being right-leaning is a valid POV held by a wide range of thoughtful people, despite the picture painted by the media

[Trickytreesreds]

Are you suggesting a correlation there? That’s a bit Swaleist of you. Of the folk I know who are right leaning there’s a massive educational spread - my brickie left school the earliest day possible with no quals (and I think he’s illiterate) and my next door neighbour is a magistrate and has more law quals than I can recount. Being right-leaning is a valid POV held by a wide range of thoughtful people, despite the picture painted by the media

Visa versa Andy

You can have the council estate yob who skiped school from 9 and the director of public prosecutions from the same egg.

[swaledale]

Are you suggesting a correlation there? That’s a bit Swaleist of you. Of the folk I know who are right leaning there’s a massive educational spread - my brickie left school the earliest day possible with no quals (and I think he’s illiterate) and my next door neighbour is a magistrate and has more law quals than I can recount. Being right-leaning is a valid POV held by a wide range of thoughtful people, despite the picture painted by the media

Being right leaning is a valid POV, being far right and leaning heavily towards xenophobia, racism, and having more than a liking for authoritarian fascist views isn't. I abhor any extreme views, be they left or right, history tends to suggest that political organisations that have either as an ideology tend not to be beneficial to a country or its citizens.

Naturally some can under an outwardly more respectable, less confrontational and less overtly offensive stance, hold views that to those that consider these matters still be rather further right, or racist etc. than the obvious people. The political Far Right have gone a long way to polish their image and appear unthreatening and merely patriotic, white washing away some very extreme and disturbing views as Le pen has done with her neo Nazi party in France and as Meloni has done in Italy.

But in general if it walks like a fascist, talks like a fascist, it generally is one or very close to one.

Only those incapable of looking beyond the façade, or indeed who do not wish to are taken in by these politicians. But Reform/UKIP/Brexit of course has neither the history, ideology nor the organisation behind it, that these established far right parties have. In countries where Fascist sympathisers have never been hard to find and indeed during WW2 wielded real power.

Can't quite see how you work out that its "the media" who claim Reform voters are uneducated, for a start, the BBC, Daily fail even the Torygraph and many others have been cheerleading Farage and his *******s on immigration etc. for years, only panicking when it was obvious they would split the Tory vote. However, I have yet to see interviewed in any media or actually meet one who I would consider to be half sentient. in much the same way I have yet to encounter a Brexiteer who can explain why they voted for Brexit. by that I mean facts, reality not the mythical and utterly false crap they spout.

But if your a thoughtful educated person and you actually think that Reform, a) has any actual practical solutions to the problems faced by the UK today and b) that Farage is someone you could picture as a leader of the Uk, then you might be educated, but your capacity for critical thinking and objectively looking at reality is clearly flawed!

Oh and you do know that one doesn't require any legal qualifications to be a Magistrate? They generally aren't people with more legal qualifications than one can count, but then maybe its your neighbour who is spouting the BS on this occasion.

[Andy_Faber]

Oh and you do know that one doesn't require any legal qualifications to be a Magistrate? They generally aren't people with more legal qualifications than one can count, but then maybe its your neighbour who is spouting the BS on this occasion.

....and that regretably for your credibility is you reverting to type and calling into question any assetion which contradicts your own POV. Note that my post used the word 'and' (...he has qualifications) not 'because' (...he had qualifications). Going back to MA's post, IMO not reading a comment properly before responding is as much a lack of intellect as using 'of' instead of 'have'

[Geoff Parkstone]

...or using have instead have of

[ramAnag]

lol, you clown. How was that flawed?


Your mate has hit his first big hurdle. Sein Fein wants him to carry out his bluff promise and put British soldiers wide open to abuse. Right after hundreds of IRA murderers were let off the hook.
So then, will flip flop fold or buckle?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/keir-starmer-defends-plans-repeal-legacy-act-northern-ireland/

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/keir-starmer-defends-plans-repeal-legacy-act-northern-ireland/

this isn't going to end well

Okay, I know you’re feeling horribly bitter but if you could stop the name calling it’d probably help. So let’s look, objectively, at the flaws that I’m apparently a ‘clown’ for raising.
Last week Labour got 33.7% of the vote and won 63.2% of seats in Parliament.
Reform won 14.3% of the popular vote which gave them just 5 seats. Compare that with the Lib Dem’s who turned 12.2% of the vote into 72 seats and it’s easy to see how our democracy is flawed.
It’s democratically unacceptable even though, on the other side of the coin, if we added up Tory and Reform votes against those of Labour, LibDems and Greens the ‘score’ would have been something like 38% v 52% and the outcome very similar.

I, of course, am delighted by what’s happened…because, this time, I’m on the winning side but, objectively, it’s a nonsense.

You in comparison are all bitter and twisted. Your theories about this being ‘the immigration election’ and the rise of the Right in France have proved nothing more than wishful thinking on your part, but let’s not dwell on the personal.

Fact is our democracy IS deeply flawed. Part of me finds that funny because you and Farage are now so outraged, and yet in 2016 when a binary democratic decision of enormous consequence was made by around just 38% of the electorate you could barely contain your delight and likewise in 2019, when Johnson won a huge majority on the back of just 43.6% of the popular vote you had no fault to find.

More seriously and objectively…the system is flawed. Those flaws have now been thrown into sharp focus by this election but it is no more flawed than in 2016 and 2019. If you want to debate any necessary change then let’s do so…respectfully and sensibly. If you just want to keep chucking names around and your toys out of the pram then I’m not interested. What goes around comes around Tricky, but I agree we do need change even though it will probably lead to 10-12% of parliamentary seats being held by those with far right views that most decent people find reprehensible.

[Andy_Faber]

Okay, I know you’re feeling horribly bitter but if you could stop the name calling it’d probably help. So let’s look, objectively, at the flaws that I’m apparently a ‘clown’ for raising.
Last week Labour got 33.7% of the vote and won 63.2% of seats in Parliament.
Reform won 14.3% of the popular vote which gave them just 5 seats. Compare that with the Lib Dem’s who turned 12.2% of the vote into 72 seats and it’s easy to see how our democracy is flawed.
It’s democratically unacceptable even though, on the other side of the coin, if we added up Tory and Reform votes against those of Labour, LibDems and Greens the ‘score’ would have been something like 38% v 52% and the outcome very similar.

I, of course, am delighted by what’s happened…because, this time, I’m on the winning side but, objectively, it’s a nonsense.

You in comparison are all bitter and twisted. Your theories about this being ‘the immigration election’ and the rise of the Right in France have proved nothing more than wishful thinking on your part, but let’s not dwell on the personal.

Fact is our democracy IS deeply flawed. Part of me finds that funny because you and Farage are now so outraged, and yet in 2016 when a binary democratic decision of enormous consequence was made by around just 38% of the electorate you could barely contain your delight and likewise in 2019, when Johnson won a huge majority on the back of just 43.6% of the popular vote you had no fault to find.

More seriously and objectively…the system is flawed. Those flaws have now been thrown into sharp focus by this election but it is no more flawed than in 2016 and 2019. If you want to debate any necessary change then let’s do so…respectfully and sensibly. If you just want to keep chucking names around and your toys out of the pram then I’m not interested. What goes around comes around Tricky, but I agree we do need change even though it will probably lead to 10-12% of parliamentary seats being held by those with far right views that most decent people find reprehensible.

Good post, says it in a pretty even-handed way