Election Year or Fear!

[ramAnag]

Guess what we Cloggies have to show at the Polling Station when we go to vote.

I’m sure there’s a funny answer but I’d imagine, some proof of identity?

[ramAnag]

Posts 287 and 288 in the One Liner thread, though to be fair I have no real objection to post 288, I don't think its funny but that doesn't mean its offensive or racist. 287 however is a broad brush Islamaphobic comment which should be as unaccetable as any other slur on a group of people simply becuase of their beliefs.

258 is probably worse. Like Swale I’m not particularly offended by GP’s slightly ‘third form’ and bigoted ‘humour’ but he rapidly takes umbrage when the boot is on the other foot so clarification about acceptability would be useful.
Apart from some of TTR’s initial contributions it’s been a harmless and lighthearted thread, let’s keep it like that.

[Geoff Parkstone]

I see Reform UK are blaming ‘woke progressives’ (consider the opposite of that for a moment ), ‘sectarianism’ and ‘family voting’ for their failure in Gorton and Denton.
Family voting? I’m sure the Johnson and Rees Mogg families are riddled with Labour supporters and the Trump offspring are all free to vote Democrat.
Apparently, according to NF, there was ‘cheating’ going on. Now where have we heard that before?

Its interesting to see the Starmer / Labour voters gleefully mocking Refrom for only finishing second yet seemingly unconcerned that they themselves lost about half of their own vote and finished third, losing a seat that had been staunchly labour for 100 years or more.

They should be concerned about their own performance and particularly the popularity of their own leadership rather than rejoicing in the failure of one party who currently have but a few MPs despite their recent naming of a "shadow cabinet".

As is probably vaguely known to some here I'm no fan of Starmer and once again here we see his ability to alienate both left and right. To come third to two parties with a collective handful of standing MPs in a staunch labour consituency surely must be another nail in his personal coffin - the party may have a substantial parliamentary majority but must take note of what the ;ocal electorate think of the performance of "top management". Its clearly not all about immigration (which a large Reform win would have suggested) but its a disaffection with hapless leadership. To use an rA favoured phrase their reaction is all about deflection by labour

Now despite all that I dont think it would be good for the country if KS were to stand down at this point - this may lead to another Truss type moment which cost the country dear. Labour strategy must be to drift left to seek to recover support back from the green protest vote: its not going to drift right to gain some of the reform support. Can Starmer manage that? Its a conflict for sure - the party may need a left drift but Im not sure that the country do: but will the party come first?

[SithHappens]

Guess what we Cloggies have to show at the Polling Station when we go to vote.

Tulips?

[ramAnag]

Its interesting to see the Starmer / Labour voters gleefully mocking Refrom for only finishing second yet seemingly unconcerned that they themselves lost about half of their own vote and finished third, losing a seat that had been staunchly labour for 100 years or more.

They should be concerned about their own performance and particularly the popularity of their own leadership rather than rejoicing in the failure of one party who currently have but a few MPs despite their recent naming of a "shadow cabinet".

As is probably vaguely known to some here I'm no fan of Starmer and once again here we see his ability to alienate both left and right. To come third to two parties with a collective handful of standing MPs in a staunch labour consituency surely must be another nail in his personal coffin - the party may have a substantial parliamentary majority but must take note of what the ;ocal electorate think of the performance of "top management". Its clearly not all about immigration (which a large Reform win would have suggested) but its a disaffection with hapless leadership. To use an rA favoured phrase their reaction is all about deflection by labour

Now despite all that I dont think it would be good for the country if KS were to stand down at this point - this may lead to another Truss type moment which cost the country dear. Labour strategy must be to drift left to seek to recover support back from the green protest vote: its not going to drift right to gain some of the reform support. Can Starmer manage that? Its a conflict for sure - the party may need a left drift but Im not sure that the country do: but will the party come first?

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they’d been berating Starmer and it’s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ‘big thing’ when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don’t recall ever using the phrase ‘defection by Labour’, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

[ramAnag]

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they?d been berating Starmer and it?s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ?big thing? when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don?t recall ever using the phrase ?defection by Labour?, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

Sorry, ‘deflection’, NOT ‘defection’…that’s the Tories.

[Andy_Faber]

Posts 287 and 288 in the One Liner thread, though to be fair I have no real objection to post 288, I don't think its funny but that doesn't mean its offensive or racist. 287 however is a broad brush Islamaphobic comment which should be as unaccetable as any other slur on a group of people simply becuase of their beliefs.

I saw both and although I didn’t find them funny I don’t find most of the jokes here funny

One mentions immigrants, they aren’t a protected group, nothing to see here

One mentions Islam and as there is no definition of Islamophobia (yet) I cant adjudicate as a non-specialist in that area. I’ve also seen other groups and faiths used in the same manner here with no comment. Islam Doesn’t appear to be the butt of the joke in any case, rather just part of the setup, the judiciary do and they aren’t a protected group so again nothing to see here although it’s probably in worse taste than the other one. I may ask my Muslim family member what he thinks later

[swaledale]

I see Reform UK are blaming ‘woke progressives’ (consider the opposite of that for a moment ), ‘sectarianism’ and ‘family voting’ for their failure in Gorton and Denton.
Family voting? I’m sure the Johnson and Rees Mogg families are riddled with Labour supporters and the Trump offspring are all free to vote Democrat.
Apparently, according to NF, there was ‘cheating’ going on. Now where have we heard that before?

Family voting is when family members enter a voting booth together and collude, discuss or direct voting intentions. Now I've actually been a Presiding Officer at elections and would have definitely noticed if that was occurring, especially on the scale being claimed.

What's puzzling is to why this was raised after rather than during the election? Its rather late then, whereas if these Democracy Volunteers were aware, then they should have immediately notified their observations/suspicions to either the Presiding Officer at the Polling Station or to the Returning Officer.

[swaledale]

I saw both and although I didn’t find them funny I don’t find most of the jokes here funny

One mentions immigrants, they aren’t a protected group, nothing to see here

One mentions Islam and as there is no definition of Islamophobia (yet) I cant adjudicate as a non-specialist in that area. I’ve also seen other groups and faiths used in the same manner here with no comment. Islam Doesn’t appear to be the butt of the joke in any case, rather just part of the setup, the judiciary do and they aren’t a protected group so again nothing to see here although it’s probably in worse taste than the other one. I may ask my Muslim family member what he thinks later

As Mod it is perfectly within your remit to remove a post which is explicitly racist, which one of those jokes is. So your cop out about Islamaphobia is pathetic. Your judgement does not reflect well on you, but regrettably I am not surprised.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they’d been berating Starmer and it’s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ‘big thing’ when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don’t recall ever using the phrase ‘defection by Labour’, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

Deflection not defection (nor defecation even)!! Deflection being one of your favoured expressions here when challenged. I guess you need to look harder to see the labour support deflecting to point to Reform's failings - but if you dont want to see them you wont.

[swaledale]

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they’d been berating Starmer and it’s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ‘big thing’ when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don’t recall ever using the phrase ‘defection by Labour’, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

Starmer's intial response is more that of a "middle management" wonk rather than a leader of a party that has been given an indication by the voters that they don't like his and labours efforts to date. Doesn't bode well for the future of Labour IMO.

What this result does show is that there are more "progressive" voters in the Uk than those attracted to Reform's narrow right wing populism. Though one does of course need to be wary of interpreting too much from one byelection, although the pattern was similar in the Welsh byelection where Plaid Cymru triumphed.

[swaledale]

The current argument of the British right is that Muslims turned out in "blocs" with "family voting" to cast their ballots for a party led by a gay Jewish man, and this shows that multiculturalism has failed, voting is "sectarian" and we are in a crisis.

I mean are they really that dumb?

[ramAnag]

Deflection not defection (nor defecation even)!! Deflection being one of your favoured expressions here when challenged. I guess you need to look harder to see the labour support deflecting to point to Reform's failings - but if you dont want to see them you wont.

Ah, sorry, you initially referred to a ‘phrase’, not a word. Hence my confusion.

Yes, I have referred to people, usually TTR, ‘deflecting’ and I am aware of Labour’s ‘failings’. If you want to talk about ‘defection’ however, well that seems to be more of a Tory problem and I guess your mention of ‘defecation’ should be reserved for the sh1t show that RUK are rapidly becoming.

[SithHappens]

See Farage has confirmed Reform have reported the family voting issue to the Police.

As swaledale says nothing was reported during the voting hours, seems a bit strange.

Labour appear to be jumping in the bandwagon too.

Family voting, appreciate the illegality of it but recall tales from my parents who , when they were old enough to vote were under strict instructions who to vote for from their parentd, guess the only difference is they didn't have a chaperone to ensure they did.

Farage even linked the vandalism of Churchills statue to the green victory today.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Ah, sorry, you initially referred to a ‘phrase’, not a word. Hence my confusion.

Yes, I have referred to people, usually TTR, ‘deflecting’ and I am aware of Labour’s ‘failings’. If you want to talk about ‘defection’ however, well that seems to be more of a Tory problem and I guess your mention of ‘defecation’ should be reserved for the sh1t show that RUK are rapidly becoming.

I have, as is my wont, looked at a few numbers comparing the by-election to the 2024 general election (before then the constituency boundaries changed but then it was an even stronger labour stronghold)

The by-election turnout and the 2024 GE turnout were almost identical (+/- 250). The general election showed a Lab majority over reform of 13400 and 13800 over Green; the bye election showed a Green majority over Lab of 5600.

the general election result was somewhat bent out of shape by there being a split vote following George Galloway defection from Labour and running a Workers Party candidate who picked up 3800 votes presumably from Lab, whose majority likely would have been 17000 or so without the split.

So, and this is where we need to assume a bit, I imagine the 2200 decline in Tory vote went to Reform and the fall in LibDem vote went Green, as did the Workers Party vote (althought this is debatable, may have gone Lab)

So this leaves a reduction in Labour vote of 9200 - approx 500 to the fringe parties, 3300 to Reform and 5400 to Green. Both swings are protest votes against Lab altough quite likely the swing to Green was more tactical to ensure the collapsing Labour vote didnt lead to a Reform win?

So was it a disaster for Reform? They appear to have taken 3300 votes off a Labour vote which triggered a chunk of tactical voting to Green in anticipation of a Labour defeat. But had a little over half of those 5400 that may have been tactically voting Green to block Reform remained loyal to Labour, guess what?? Labour would have won by a slim majority.

Can I have a job as a Starmer spin doctor please