Election Year or Fear!

[SithHappens]

So whilst Wolves have left us with our incompetence record, it seems Ayatollah Arafi has beaten out Liz Truss for shortest spell as leader, having reportedly been taken out within a day of appointment. maybe RP's succession presumption is a tad flawed if US Israeli intelligence can work that fast

Is Marinakis in charge?

[SithHappens]

No doubt Doncaster residents are full of confidence

https://x.com/Parody_PM/status/2028478872019149258?s=20

[Geoff Parkstone]

Is Marinakis in charge?

Interestingly hes just raised a huge amount of money via an IPO in Norway I think to invest loads in oil tankers... not sure if thats a great strategy as of today, but its mostly for newbuilds that wont be delivered for a while yet. However with 10% of world trade going through Hormuz (or rather not now) demand may be slumping unless a few get blown up. Maybe he will divert the funding into Forest as thats another sinking ship - boom boom Mr Derek.

[SithHappens]

Interestingly hes just raised a huge amount of money via an IPO in Norway I think to invest loads in oil tankers... not sure if thats a great strategy as of today, but its mostly for newbuilds that wont be delivered for a while yet. However with 10% of world trade going through Hormuz (or rather not now) demand may be slumping unless a few get blown up. Maybe he will divert the funding into Forest as thats another sinking ship - boom boom Mr Derek.

Yeah the ship may have sailed on that opportunity

[swaledale]

Interestingly hes just raised a huge amount of money via an IPO in Norway I think to invest loads in oil tankers... not sure if thats a great strategy as of today, but its mostly for newbuilds that wont be delivered for a while yet. However with 10% of world trade going through Hormuz (or rather not now) demand may be slumping unless a few get blown up. Maybe he will divert the funding into Forest as thats another sinking ship - boom boom Mr Derek.

Well there is another route that can and will be used if the conflict continues, so prices will rise which might temper demand but doubt it will slump.

[swaledale]

The policies of Khamenei were enforced by the Revolutionary Guard, the Army, the Police and a militia who ride round on motor bikes/scooters. All of the above are well armed and there's around 300K of them. They and their supporters/family, according to a Dutch journalist who's lived in Iran for the past 25 years and has returned to NL until the battle is over, number some 8M. That's one "side". The other "side" is around 85M mostly unarmed people.

Outnumbered 10 to 1 but with armaments the ordinary folk don't have, the RG etc might have been promised immunity by Trump but, as yet, not by the 85M. Ig the regime's "enforcers" do lay down their arms, are they really going to be safe? I'd say not. The moment the US/Israeli "whatever it is" stopsm the RG et al will go out looking for those currently out in the streets dancing.

Trump and Netanyahu don't seem to have an exit strategy. The ordinary Iranians are not going to get any kind of freedom, IMO.

Further complicated by the fact that Iranians over 90% are Shia Muslim, whilst over 90% of Muslims are Sunni, so even within the other side 85m there is not necessarily an agreement on what could or would replace the current regime. Indeed there are numerous factions who may well use any vacuum to pursue their own agendas and vendettas, as was seen in Iraq and Libya.

Which made it all the more ironic, when Badenoch accused Starmer (who IMO has been handled the matter well to date) of not wholly supporting the US action due to him being in hoc to the Muslim vote - mm most UK Muslims are Sunni, so hardly supportive of the late unlamented Supreme leader.!

It all makes for worrying atmosphere of chaos and of course a spawning ground for Jihadi's.

The neigbouring states, Sauid, UAE, etc. are majority Sunni so not all that symapthetic to Iran, though not necessarily happy for the US to be the dominant force.

Its not clear that Trump has a strategy, or a plan. It is an illustration of why he admires Putin and has done almost nothing to stop the war in Ukariane, don't like the government in another state, remove them with force!

[swaledale]

The irony of those grifters, "influencers" and gon****es like Oakeshott, who made such a big thing about leaving the UK to live in the tax free paradise thats Dubai and are now screaming for the UK Government to get them out is rather funny. I don't wish them any harm, but do think that they have a cheek expecting tax payers to rescue them when they live there to avoid paying tax!!

[Ram Pant]

So whilst Wolves have left us with our incompetence record, it seems Ayatollah Arafi has beaten out Liz Truss for shortest spell as leader, having reportedly been taken out within a day of appointment. maybe RP's succession presumption is a tad flawed if US Israeli intelligence can work that fast

Succession presumption? I've re-read my post on this and can't fathom how you came up with that idea?

[Ram Pant]

It seems that the orange one isn't happy with the UK stance on this. Good. He's now said, on consecutive days, to 2 different UK news outlets, that things have cooled in the special relationship. It isn't what it was. Starmer appears to have done quite well, IMO.

[ramAnag]

It seems that the orange one isn't happy with the UK stance on this. Good. He's now said, on consecutive days, to 2 different UK news outlets, that things have cooled in the special relationship. It isn't what it was. Starmer appears to have done quite well, IMO.

‘2 different UK news outlets’ who just happen to be Starmer’s leading critics, The Sun and The Daily Telegraph. Entirely coincidental of course.

[Geoff Parkstone]

‘2 different UK news outlets’ who just happen to be Starmer’s leading critics, The Sun and The Daily Telegraph. Entirely coincidental of course.

I think on balance I am happy to see Starmer not following the warmnonger Blair's strategy in joining in with the offensive actions against Iran, but that doesnt seem to have stopped Iranian counter strikes on British installations in Cyprus. Now it seems he's agreed to allowing US to use our airbases in their actions, in common with many other European countries, notably Greece.

iIs a delicate balance to try to achieve, especially in view of our non EU status and the relatively new trade deals with US and Starmer is doing OK in my view in this respect, trying to walk the tightrope - but for how long I dont know. Seems the Chinese are lining up behind Iran (no surprise there as its all about Chinese aceess to Iranian oil) and this escalation will heap more pressure on NATO.

Am struggling to see a good ending here as IMO its not about Iranian regime change per se, its about the bigger battle for economic dominance between US and China and cutting off Chinese access to energy by destabilising their biggest supplier, having just taken tighter control over their second biggest supplier in Venezuela. Can see maybe the Chinese moving in on Taiwan whilst the other two major powers focus on their own battles, but they for sure cannot sit back and watch their oil suppliers get consumed in this way.

Much as I think regime change in Iran is a laudable objective, I really dont think its the main point here, and Starmer is right to stand back from this for now - something I have to say through gritted teeth :-)

[Geoff Parkstone]

Well there is another route that can and will be used if the conflict continues, so prices will rise which might temper demand but doubt it will slump.

Well tradewinds reports that Hormuz has just been closed trapping 3200 ships inside the gulf. I will let them know your details so you can advise these alternative routes that shipowners and charterers clearly arent aware of

Clarksons suggest 112 crude carriers stuck amongst the 3200 which is 4% of the world fleet. Loadsa money to be made Swale in solving their problem

[SithHappens]

Interesting when Trump was saying Obama would attack Iran, which he didn't, Farage was posting saying we should stay out of other people's wars and it was wrong to bomb Iran. Now hes all for it.

They call starmer flip-flop but Farage changes his mind about as often as he changes his pants.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Interesting when Trump was saying Obama would attack Iran, which he didn't, Farage was posting saying we should stay out of other people's wars and it was wrong to bomb Iran. Now hes all for it.

They call starmer flip-flop but Farage changes his mind about as often as he changes his pants.

I have no insight into the frequency of his pant changing or personal hygiene, but welcome to politics !!

[swaledale]

Well tradewinds reports that Hormuz has just been closed trapping 3200 ships inside the gulf. I will let them know your details so you can advise these alternative routes that shipowners and charterers clearly arent aware of

Clarksons suggest 112 crude carriers stuck amongst the 3200 which is 4% of the world fleet. Loadsa money to be made Swale in solving their problem

The primary alternative to the Red Sea route is diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, which adds 10–14 days and roughly 3,500 nautical miles to Asia-Europe voyages. This rerouting increases fuel consumption, operating costs, and shipping rates.

There solved it for you!