Election Year or Fear!

[SithHappens]

Previously unseen footage of the security at the weekend

https://x.com/i/status/2048234646933020919

[swaledale]

So your anecdote is as valid/invalid as mine, that’s fair enough.

Regarding the gun thing, I’ll tell my friend Cathy that she is wrong in carrying, and shouldn’t feel safer, because, because some bloke from England says so

I generally don't use anecdotal "evidence", but was merely countering your claim with one of my own to demonstrate that perceptions can be quite different and don't necessarily equate to reality. But I guess if you want to believe what you choose to believe rather than look at reality thats fine.


Where exactly did I say that carrying gun didn't either make a person feel safe or actually be safer?

Oh thats right I didn't, seems your mixing me up with RA's response.

My personal view on it is that having travelled extensively in the US, I've not felt unsafe due to the number of guns in circulation and wouldn't necessarily feel that carrying a gun would make me feel safer. Whether in reality, carrying a gun actually improves a persons safety in the US is open to question, but then how one feels and what the reality is are often quite different.

I pointed out that your comparison with gun carrying in the US with knife carrying in the UK was false. That knife crime in the Uk was largely restricted to certain groups of people, whereas in the US anybody can and are victims of both gun crime and accidental shootings.

Sometimes you seem so stuck with your own (often unsupported beliefs) that you are unable to deal with reality.

[swaledale]

If we wait to hear what the parties are telling us, then we are allowing them to dictate how we see the election. It is usual when we go into a shop, after all, to have an idea what we want to buy. We don?t usually spend our money on what the shop most wants to sell us. Likewise, a democracy should start from the bottom up, so by the time you begin receiving those leaflets, you ought to know what it is you?re voting about: don?t let the parties tell you.

So, if the election is for a county council, its main responsibilities are social care and health, highways and transport, education, waste management and the environment, and public safety. If the leaflet talks about something else, it is trying to lead you into subjects the party would prefer. You can make your own judgement on why.

[MadAmster]

Some guys have all the luck...

[ramAnag]

BP profits reported as having more than doubled since the Iran conflict…WTF!

[Geoff Parkstone]

BP profits reported as having more than doubled since the Iran conflict…WTF!

...and you're surprised because?

[MadAmster]

...and you're surprised because?

No windfall tax announced as yet?

We, at our ages, have seen this for over half a century. Your crisis is my new villa/yacht/Lamborghini etc. We really shouldn't be surprised. Whatever happens, it's always the same people who benefit.

[ramAnag]

...and you're surprised because?

I’m surprised because, apparently naively, I imagined that the cost of oil related products had risen exponentially which is why we are paying more for petrol, diesel and heating oil etc. I hadn’t, again apparently naively, factored in that the oil and petrol companies are profiting to such an extent from the crisis. Silly of me!

[MadAmster]

I’m surprised because, apparently naively, I imagined that the cost of oil related products had risen exponentially which is why we are paying more for petrol, diesel and heating oil etc. I hadn’t, again apparently naively, factored in that the oil and petrol companies are profiting to such an extent from the crisis. Silly of me!

Indeed, that it happens is logical. BP pump up the oil. It gets sold on the open market at the market price of the day. Costs BP the same to pump a gallon out of the ground. Brent crude averaged around 66.60 USD in January 2026, today it's 111 USD. Accident of circumstance has seen the price per unit of Brent crude increase by 2/3 (66%). I'd be surprised of BPs, and all the other oil producers' profits, hadn't greatly increased.

The market works for those few trading on the market. The rest of us pay the price. I think such accidental profit hikes should attract high levels of tax. Conversely, if a different accident caused lower profits then that year's tax should be adjusted downwards. A bit like Inshared Insurance profits, according to their ads... we all benefit.

[ramAnag]

Indeed, that it happens is logical. BP pump up the oil. It gets sold on the open market at the market price of the day. Costs BP the same to pump a gallon out of the ground. Brent crude averaged around 66.60 USD in January 2026, today it's 111 USD. Accident of circumstance has seen the price per unit of Brent crude increase by 2/3 (66%). I'd be surprised of BPs, and all the other oil producers' profits, hadn't greatly increased.

The market works for those few trading on the market. The rest of us pay the price. I think such accidental profit hikes should attract high levels of tax. Conversely, if a different accident caused lower profits then that year's tax should be adjusted downwards. A bit like Inshared Insurance profits, according to their ads... we all benefit.

What’s worse is that BP is my petrol station of choice. Locally, i.e. Ashbourne and Pride Park, they seem to have stuck around the 1.55/56 pl mark whereas others have been selling at 10/12p more pl so God knows how much they’re making. I’m sure there was a term for such people during WWII.

[MadAmster]

You do all make me giggle with your conspiracy theories

Eargate. I always doubted it as it is something seen many a time and oft at WWE and its forerunner the WWF shows.

I googled "if a bullet grazed my ear would it leave a scar?" The answer is...

Yes, a bullet grazing the ear would almost certainly leave a scar. The injury would likely result in a permanent, shallow, or irregular notch in the cartilage, as ear cartilage does not regenerate, and healing involves the formation of scar tissue. While small lacerations might close quickly, significant damage to the skin and cartilage generally leads to a noticeable scar or distortion.
Source - Weniger Plastic Surgery

Key Aspects of a Bullet Graze to the Ear:
Scar Tissue Formation: Because ear cartilage has a poor blood supply, it does not heal seamlessly; instead, the body fills the damaged area with scar tissue.
Permanent Distortion: A graze from a high-velocity round, such as a rifle bullet, can remove skin and cartilage, leaving a permanent depression or deformed edge, as 7 and 1 discuss in their Quora posts regarding similar injuries 2, 7.
Healing Time: Such injuries, while not immediately fatal, can take months to fully heal.
Wound Characteristics: A grazing wound often produces an elliptical furrow with ragged edges, which typically leaves a permanent scar.
Source - PubMed Central (PMC) (.gov)

While some superficial grazing wounds might heal with minimal scarring, any injury that tears the cartilage will leave a lasting mark.

You may think that was a conspiracy theory but it's backed up by fact. His ear shows no sign of having been "shot" and the facts say it would be scarred.

The haphazard way this latest "attack" panned out is, IMO, one of 3 things. A fake, just as I believe eargate to be. A totally amateur affair with no real planning by someone of low intelligence, and this bloke is, apparently, quite smart between the ears. Or the work of someone who's gone doolally.

[ramAnag]

Hmmm. Seems Jeremy Hosking, of Hosking Partners, has recently increased his investments in oil and gas shares to over 300 million GDP.

That’s the same Jeremy Hosking who has donated 1.7 million GDP to Reform UK led by the same Nigel Farage who has pledged to extract ‘every last drop’ of oil and gas from the North Sea while denying all evidence of climate change.

The rich keep getting richer…quite coincidentally and at what cost?

[Geoff Parkstone]

I?m surprised because, apparently naively, I imagined that the cost of oil related products had risen exponentially which is why we are paying more for petrol, diesel and heating oil etc. I hadn?t, again apparently naively, factored in that the oil and petrol companies are profiting to such an extent from the crisis. Silly of me!

lets say if you make a 10% mark up on selling a product, then it the product cost goes up by eg 50% you will increase your price to maintain the 10% markup - meaning your gross profits in monetary terms will go up 50%. You havent changed your margin but the turnover and cost of sales have risen proportionately. Equally you have a bigger base turnover to spread your overhheads across hence not profit will increase by more than 50%.

Of course the converse is true in that if prices fall then your gross margin will fall proportionately and your ability to absorb overheads will become impaired.

This where windfall taxes are a tad unfair in that they will get you when markets go up, but there is no equivalent relief when markets fall. In an incredibly volatile market where prices were moving significantly from day to day a lot also depends on the timing of the market shifts.

This is an exceptionally simplistic version as oil trading in particular (but also as with most commodities) yjr uses of futures trading hedging an options smooth things out longer term, but in any one quarterly cycle there can be very anomalous results.. The other quarter to quarter impact is simply the massive increase in stock values of oil held at the previous quarter end - pump prices will have gone up whilst the older cheaper stock holdings are being sold of at current higher yields. Then again same things happen in reverse.

The figures for comparison are (per BP) "Reported profit for the quarter was $3.8 billion, compared with a loss of $3.4 billion for the fourth quarter 2025." Thats a lot more than doubled. I suspect what youve seen is results on an underlying replacement cost basis which have approx double butare somewhat "pie in the sky" and not representative of what the actual cost really are.

[Geoff Parkstone]

those selling at higher prices are likely not "oil drillers" and so have more volatile costs of oil. BP as a producer / "driller" of oil are less vulnerable to the volatile as MA notes. They still will suffer increased transport and insurance costs for example but not necessarily as much of an increase in extraction costs. So in times of rising oil prices buy from retailers selling extractor product, and in falling markets buy from tesco perhaps who dont have their own product to use up??

[Geoff Parkstone]

[QUOTE=ramAnag;40822608]Hmmm. Seems Jeremy Hosking, of Hosking Partners, has recently increased his investments in oil and gas shares to over 300 million GDP.

That’s the same Jeremy Hosking who has donated 1.7 million GDP to Reform UK led by the same Nigel Farage who has pledged to extract ‘every last drop’ of oil and gas from the North Sea while denying all evidence of climate change.

The rich keep getting richer…quite coincidentally and at what cost?[/QUOTE

Sounds a sensible investment decision to me as of a few weeks ago. But as oil markets fall he may see it differently. Investing is long term.

In reality pledging financial support for someone intent on "massively" increasing supplies of oil onto the market is not sensible as Reform policy in this respect is likely to see the price of oil fall.