Election Year or Fear!

[swaledale]

Are there too many? Depends on your stance, really. Do people want doctors, nurses, engineers, scientists etc? Yes, of course they do.

Do they want epople who won't learn the language, won't engage in day to day life as in socialising, working etc. No they don't.

With regards to those who are, genuinely, fleeing war zones or countries where their religion or seksual leanings would see them persecuted at best and killed at worst in their homeland, I say yes, come on in. Enjoy the freedom you don't have back home BUT, you will learn the language, you will work and pay your way. You will not come here to live off the taxpayer. Exceptions to this would be those who CAN'T work through physical or mental limitations.

In both cases, I'm with them. In the most recent Dutch elections I voted for a party that had, amongst other things, stronger immigration Laws in their manifesto.

As usual TTR seems to swallow the BS put out by Right Wing and indeed other commentators on social media and the media, rather than actually consider what the reality is.

Given that Reforms share of the vote is 26% and not all of those will be racists moaning about immigration, many of whom ironically are from areas which have hardly been affected by immigration (like Clacton for instance).

Its clear Reform have prospered by a combination of Labours vote going to more left leaning parties and the continued squeeze on the Conservative vote, which is hardly a story of voters being fed up with lack of controls on immigration is it? It actually points to voters who aren't that fixated on immigration being fed up with labours drift to the right.

Then TTR's assertion that no government has got a handle on it, isn't true ironically of the this Labour government who have reduced legal immigration by more than half since being elected and deported over 60,000 immigrants with no legal right to remain, 50% more than the Tories managed.

Yes the "small boats" issue remains, but compared to legal migration at circa 240,000 is small and the UK still accepts far fewer asylum seekers than other countries in Europe. The small boats could be substantially reduced by having better legal system for claiming asylum, rather than the few options currently available.

There is widepsread BS being spread about what asylum seekers get in support and no real understanding what stopping immigration completely would do to the economy of the UK or indeed what economic damage Brexit has done to the UK.

I absolutely agree with you that any country needs to control immigration and handle asylum claims in a fair and transparent manner. There absolutely needs to be better enforcement of those working illegally, which is actually happening. But the notion that there are substantial number sof immigrants in the UK on benefits or toher hand outs is simply not true.

Immigration is a "dead cat", thrown out by reform to distract from the fact that the party is funded by billionaires who live overseas and pay hardly any UK taxes and that the people are being shafted by a system that protects the interests of these billionaires and they certainly aren't intrested in the lives of the dumb sods whoa re voting for them.

[swaledale]

People do want change, TTR, agreed. The Reform councils aren't doing well, thus far. Is that the reason their % share of the vote was actually down on the previous local elections.

Farage keeps saying things folk want to hear. Later, when questiuoned about things he's said, he claims he's never said them, despite there being video of him saying it. I'm not going to sidle up to him as long as he votes against Bills designed to improve safety for women and children. As long as he keeps voting against Bills to help worker's rights. As long as he supports Trump. As long as he is a fan of Putin. Next election, after a whole Parliamentary cyclus of him steering clear of his Constituency, he's not going to get back in.

Who would I vote for at the next election? The answer is I won't vote. As I've written before, as I no longer pay UK tax and don't live there, I don't think I should. From 1999 to 2022, as I'd been away for over 15 years, I wasn't allowed to vote. The Tories gave me that back. I won't use it though. Why? As well as my thoughts that I shouldn't have a vote anyway, if I did change my mind, there isn't a party that looks remotely like home. Tories never have and never will have my vote. The Labour party I used to be a card acrrying member of no longer exists. I find it impossible to take the LibDems seriously. Reform are too far to the right for me and are, IMO, simply a party that will be as pro the rich and big business as Trump's republicans are in the USA. DJT is pushing for more, more, more for the rich and less, less less for the majority. Farage will go the same way if he ever gets into power. Not something I can support. Greens are the "Reform" of the left and go too far, way too far. There isn't a party that mirrors my wishes. That is why I won't be exercising my reinstated right to vote.

Which is fair enough from your point of view. But as ever voting is generally choosing the least worse option, or at least an option which most fits your views, given that all politics is a compromise. For those in the UK not voting or voting without thought as to the effect it will ahve could well result in a far right government that will address none of the issues it claims it will. That IMO will be disastrous for the country. If you don't want that, then at the next GE tactical voting is required to keep Reform out. For me that will be green, Labour or Lib Dem. But I can see it involve voting Tory if thats the best option.

[swaledale]

Ok I'm not bothering arguing. Clearly it was a great set of results for labour and the loss of councillors and control of councils on the red wall is all illusory.

Where did I say that? I haven't. You seem unable to understand what I'm saying or indeed what the real picture is. That its a combination of the split in the Labour vote and the migration of the Tory vote (in some areas) to Reform that has enabled Reform to win seats.

Your conclusion that over half of Labour voters switched to Reform isn't true, simples!

Its no less an issue for Labour, because they are losing their core centre left or left voters but those voters clearly aren't voting for reform, which demonstrates that Labours shift towards Refom "light" policies is not the right move.

Your not bothering to argue, because clearly your original conclusion based on seats won was wrong. Which is fine its an easy mistake to make, though I had credited you with being able to understand the point I was making, seems I've either overestimated you or you are reluctant to admit your error.

[MadAmster]

... or he's simply "poking the bear".

[ramAnag]

Tricky, you can’t return calling people ‘left wing planks’, then mention respect and expect people to take you seriously.

I don’t think anyone on here doesn’t believe that immigration isn’t an issue that needs addressing, some of us are just a little more thoughtful and compassionate about the problem than others.

Neither is it RUK’s obsession with immigration that makes them racist…it is the willingness - desire even - to adopt an anti Muslim stance at every opportunity, to blame everything on immigrants, to adopt the tone that the newly elected RUK Sunderland councillor did towards Nigerians etc. that makes Reform UK racist.

Personally I’m not particularly ‘left wing’. A little left of centre maybe but only a little. I just can’t get wound up about the (approximately) 1.5% of the population who are here illegally. Of much more concern to me is the amount of wealth owned by a similar percentage of the upper echelons of our society. That, to me, is much more damaging to society as a whole.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Where did I say that? I haven't. You seem unable to understand what I'm saying or indeed what the real picture is. That its a combination of the split in the Labour vote and the migration of the Tory vote (in some areas) to Reform that has enabled Reform to win seats.

Your conclusion that over half of Labour voters switched to Reform isn't true, simples!

Its no less an issue for Labour, because they are losing their core centre left or left voters but those voters clearly aren't voting for reform, which demonstrates that Labours shift towards Refom "light" policies is not the right move.

Your not bothering to argue, because clearly your original conclusion based on seats won was wrong. Which is fine its an easy mistake to make, though I had credited you with being able to understand the point I was making, seems I've either overestimated you or you are reluctant to admit your error.

Tell you what Swale, the next time I see a "notional share of the vote" taking a seat in the council chamber and being involved in decision making, I'll concede that your statistic has greater validity. Meantime its as irrelevant as Totenham Hotspure have been this season and means nothing in practical terms.

To further exemplify, Labour won only about 33% of the National Vote at the last election yet won an overwhelming majority in parliament. Are you suggesting that they have no mandate to govern?

Oh yes and to say reforms share of the vote has gone down: this is I guess comparing apples to oranges as reform basically put up no candidates in the 2021 local elections. You must therefore, I presume, be comparing share of vote at a (2024) general election to the results in local elections. If you dont get that the issues impacting voter choice are different then you must lack the sentience that you accuse everyone else of lacking. To demonstrate this look at the relative success of the Libdems in the past 25 or so years in local elections compared to their disproportionat lack success in general elections.

Still you carry on sticking your head in the sand and believe that there isnt a risk of a far right goverrnment with all the problems that would bring. I guess that makes you what Andy calls a good German??

[Andy_Faber]

Still you carry on sticking your head in the sand and believe that there isnt a risk of a far right goverrnment with all the problems that would bring. I guess that makes you what Andy calls a good German??

I think Swale qualfies, using his own definition, as a good German, it was Swale himself who introduced the phrase to this discussion not me

I also think Swale is fashioning himself as one of a new breed, a left leaning Gammon - a Glammon if you will.

Meanwhile, TTR apppears to be the closest to Nostradamus that we have here

[Andy_Faber]

Are there too many? Depends on your stance, really. Do people want doctors, nurses, engineers, scientists etc? Yes, of course they do.

Do they want epople who won't learn the language, won't engage in day to day life as in socialising, working etc. No they don't.

With regards to those who are, genuinely, fleeing war zones or countries where their religion or seksual leanings would see them persecuted at best and killed at worst in their homeland, I say yes, come on in. Enjoy the freedom you don't have back home BUT, you will learn the language, you will work and pay your way. You will not come here to live off the taxpayer. Exceptions to this would be those who CAN'T work through physical or mental limitations.

In both cases, I'm with them. In the most recent Dutch elections I voted for a party that had, amongst other things, stronger immigration Laws in their manifesto.

Not much to argue with there MA, I think it aligns with my oft-used sound bite ?help those who can?t help themselves, not those who won?t help themselves? and another I was recently introduced to (from an Iraqi who uses it ?back home), ?you are welcome in my home but dont **** on my carpet?

[swaledale]

Tell you what Swale, the next time I see a "notional share of the vote" taking a seat in the council chamber and being involved in decision making, I'll concede that your statistic has greater validity. Meantime its as irrelevant as Totenham Hotspure have been this season and means nothing in practical terms.

To further exemplify, Labour won only about 33% of the National Vote at the last election yet won an overwhelming majority in parliament. Are you suggesting that they have no mandate to govern?

Oh yes and to say reforms share of the vote has gone down: this is I guess comparing apples to oranges as reform basically put up no candidates in the 2021 local elections. You must therefore, I presume, be comparing share of vote at a (2024) general election to the results in local elections. If you dont get that the issues impacting voter choice are different then you must lack the sentience that you accuse everyone else of lacking. To demonstrate this look at the relative success of the Libdems in the past 25 or so years in local elections compared to their disproportionat lack success in general elections.

Still you carry on sticking your head in the sand and believe that there isnt a risk of a far right goverrnment with all the problems that would bring. I guess that makes you what Andy calls a good German??

Oh dear, and you intimated I might be as thick as those who voted Reform! Not sure how much simpler I can make it so that you understand the point I'm making.

The debate or argument we were having, or certainly the comment you made I was responding to, was this:

"Ok if we accept that most Reform voters are as thick as you maintain, does that mean that at least half of them (based on results up to 4pm today) were equally thick when they voted labour at the previous council elections?"

Now it might be that what you posted wasn't what you meant, but to me and I presume other posters on here read this as you stating that "At least half of those who voted Reform had voted for Labour in previous council elections"

That simply isn't true, what is it about the FACT, that the majority of Labour voters voted for other left leaning parties, which split the Labour vote and that has enabled reform to win seats you don't understand?

When I challenged that as not being the facts, you then stated that it was based on the number of seats reform had won against seats that Labour had lost. Which clearly isn't a reflection of how votes were cast, but hey, I even quoted the pollster John Curtis's views, becuase I figured you wouldn't be convinced by my simple explanantion.

I have stated several times that this split in the left leaning vote IS A DANGER TO Labour and could result in a reform victory, despite you claiming that I'm apparently claiming Reform isn't a risk of a far right government and indeed I pointed out that it could, if the left leaning vote was split at a GE and the Tory vote converted to Reform might result in reform being elected on less than 30% of the total vote.

Instead of being argumentative, why not just accept that you were wrong in stating that half of Reform voters previously voted Labour?

And no the decline in the overall Reform vote is in comparision to last years local elections just to be clear on that point.

Actually understanding where Reforms vote is coming from is important, Labour is losing its core voters and trying to out reform reform with some policies is not working, its something that centre left parties elsewhere have tried to do and its merely proven that voters who approve of such policies will vote for th right wing party in any case.

The issue is clear, Reform can only win a GE if it continues to attract the votes of former Tories AND the left leaning vote is split between The Greens, Labour and LIb Dems. HOWEVER, a degree of caution does need to be taken as local elections are different from a GE. BUT if Labour doesn't change tack and soon, it will suffer the consequences.

Unfortunately based on Starmer's speech today, it ain't going to happen under him, he lacks passion, and shows no signs of making the change thats required.

[swaledale]

I think Swale qualfies, using his own definition, as a good German, it was Swale himself who introduced the phrase to this discussion not me

I also think Swale is fashioning himself as one of a new breed, a left leaning Gammon - a Glammon if you will.

Meanwhile, TTR apppears to be the closest to Nostradamus that we have here

Oh dear, this is probably the most utter nonsense you have posted on here, and to be fair there are more than a few examples. Its already been established you don't understand the concept of "The Good german", neither it seems does GP. I mean its not a difficult concept, anymore than its difficult to understand that the claim "more than half of those who voted for Reform previously voted Labour" isn't true.

As for TTR being Nostradamus, all I can say is the more you post the more you reveal a complete inability to actually stop yourself looking stupid. Not your fault I guess, one only has the intellectual capability one was born with, but a bit of self awareness would at least hide the stupidity.

[swaledale]

Tricky, you can’t return calling people ‘left wing planks’, then mention respect and expect people to take you seriously.

I don’t think anyone on here doesn’t believe that immigration isn’t an issue that needs addressing, some of us are just a little more thoughtful and compassionate about the problem than others.

Neither is it RUK’s obsession with immigration that makes them racist…it is the willingness - desire even - to adopt an anti Muslim stance at every opportunity, to blame everything on immigrants, to adopt the tone that the newly elected RUK Sunderland councillor did towards Nigerians etc. that makes Reform UK racist.

Personally I’m not particularly ‘left wing’. A little left of centre maybe but only a little. I just can’t get wound up about the (approximately) 1.5% of the population who are here illegally. Of much more concern to me is the amount of wealth owned by a similar percentage of the upper echelons of our society. That, to me, is much more damaging to society as a whole.

Careful RA, sound logic and a reasonable argument doesn't seem to be understood on here by those that for whatever reason cannot accept facts or indeed understand a straight forward concept.

I've come to the conclusion that as with TTR, who merely spews out stuff he has read or heard from the media and online, with no original thought of his own, that GP and AF are also incapable of understanding what are essentially quite simple facts and propositions.

It seems its a waste of time and effort explaining stuff, they have swallowed the Kool Aid and seem unaware of having done so.

Incidentally, I wasn't impressed by Starmer's "reset speech", I am not hopeful that we are going to see a chnage of direction under him. Trying to be all things to all people never works, yet he seems not to realise this.

[ramAnag]

Meanwhile, TTR apppears to be the closest to Nostradamus that we have here[/QUOTE]

Like his predictions about Orban in Hungary, the success of the French far right and Starmer being gone within a year (made in 2024) you mean?

[SithHappens]

Meanwhile, TTR apppears to be the closest to Nostradamus that we have here

Like his predictions about Orban in Hungary, the success of the French far right and Starmer being gone within a year (made in 2024) you mean?[/QUOTE]

Well those that rant i the high street about the end being nigh, one will be right one day.

[SithHappens]

Looks like Reform have lost quite a few councillors already, some sacked (racism and other stuff), 1 resigned because thought it was a paid role, 1 thought would be an Mp, 1 wanted to go on holiday..then we have David Barker who i don't think has but has a history of domestic abuse, but will fit in as Reform have a history of accepting such candidates.

[MadAmster]

Tricky, you can?t return calling people ?left wing planks?, then mention respect and expect people to take you seriously.

I don?t think anyone on here doesn?t believe that immigration isn?t an issue that needs addressing, some of us are just a little more thoughtful and compassionate about the problem than others.

Neither is it RUK?s obsession with immigration that makes them racist?it is the willingness - desire even - to adopt an anti Muslim stance at every opportunity, to blame everything on immigrants, to adopt the tone that the newly elected RUK Sunderland councillor did towards Nigerians etc. that makes Reform UK racist.

Personally I?m not particularly ?left wing?. A little left of centre maybe but only a little. I just can?t get wound up about the (approximately) 1.5% of the population who are here illegally. Of much more concern to me is the amount of wealth owned by a similar percentage of the upper echelons of our society. That, to me, is much more damaging to society as a whole.

... and as I've said before, the entire system, from birth to death with everything in between such as school, uni, work, the media etc is designed to aid the rich and be detrimental to the least well of 70%+ of the populace. The wealth gap had reduced, but was still very evident, over the years between WW1 and Thatcher. Since then there's been a war of sorts aimed at rewidening the gap into a chasm and it's working. Is it already too late to reset? If it's not, we are pretty damned close, IMO.

I'm not against the top whatever % having a lot. What I am against is that they gained that wealth off the labour of the least well off 70%+ and started to hate the fact that many of those 70%+ had started to get, well, almost affluent. Thatcher started the reversal and it's continued ever since. It's all gone skew whiff. My first house in the UK cost 2.5 times my annual salary. My 2nd one, here in NL, in 1989, cost similar. Average house prices over here are now 502K, average wages are 48K. House prices are now 10.5 times the average wage. All by design. It has to stop. Take measures to narrow the chasm back to a gap. Not a full blown, peaceful revolution but a reset to bring some degree of fairness back.