O/T:- Trump Presidency 2.0 [hic sunt dracones]

[Jampie]

Trump wants a weak $$$$ to make imports cheaper but, he will penalise imports by levying massive tariffs, said to be, to encourage people to buy American so I suppose it could work on two levels.

Cheap imports where massive tariff is collected - win

Discourages importation and creates a demand for home produced goods which will create jobs - win

He can probably get away with holding the value of the $ down to some extent because most Americans don't travel abroad. I read a stat that said 85% of Americans don't even have a passport.

What do I know.

Weak dollar will make imports more expensive. Tariffs will make everything more expensive (= inflation).

Tariffs also protect weak industries from competition and stimulate uncompetitive investments. They are always counterproductive in the long term.

Creating jobs in industries your country isn't competitive in is a road to nowhere. It will never result in higher exports (you can't compete so nobody will be buying your stuff) so it just makes those products and services more expensive locally while the rest of the world pays less - and so becomes more competitive than you in other places (cost of living and cost of business is lower for them).

It's just bad economics. Investment should go into industries where the US can be competitive, same as every other country.

[Lullapie]

Why don't you just admit you have no idea what you're talking about, but you like the sound of 'strong dollar' better than 'weak dollar' because strong sounds more manly? I mean that is genuinely where this conversation is going, isn't it?

Look up China currency manipulation and come back and tell me if they try to make their currency stronger or weaker.

I was being polite and I feel that you don't really understand what you are talking about. I'm unaware how much you deal with foreign currency transactions day by day, but with our business buying products from the US, Canada, UK and India, it is a big part of my daily routine.

You said that Trump's policies were inflationary and I asked for proof with regards to your comments, while providing proof of when we experienced Trump 1.0. - Nothing, just abuse.

You are confusing the world largest economy with small town economics. The US has always been an anomaly when it comes to economics, because it is often the exception to the rule. In fact, the US normally invents the rules.

You seem to like the sound of your own voice, but when questioned about your comments, you get abusive. You're like the Geordie mouse in Creature Comforts.

So, back to Trump. The surge in the US$ is purely down to the confidence that the world markets have in Trump. This happened in 2016 and after 2016, the US$ settled down and it's value began to fall.

I know generally a strong economy needs a weak currency to flourish - but this is only a short term fix. Bearing in mind that so much is bought and sold in US$, this makes it difficult for the US to achieve this. That's why I say, Trump will be aiming for a strong economy and therefore a strong currency. If the economy is buoyant in the US (the world's biggest consumer), then money will flood into the dollar - making it stronger. I thought that bit was easy to follow.

There's a famous piece by Jeffrey Frankel, an international economist, where he talks about the fact that it would be favourable for the US to have a strong currency and a strong economy. The irony is that he was talking about the dollar when Obama was in power and Frankel is as anti-Trump as you can get.

[Lullapie]

No! That's wrong!

Trump wants a weak dollar to make exports from the US to other countries cheaper.

Trump (or any other president) can't really decide the value of the dollar. The Chairman of the Federal resserve decides interest rates, which are probably the main factor in the strength of a currency, because they stimulate or reduce demand for that currency. Higher demand for a currency means 'price' goes up, price in this case being exchange rate. The dollar got stronger the day after election day and has kept getting stronger ever since because currency traders are effectively betting that the Fed won't be able to reduce interest rates as it had announced it would (I think they had pre-announced 3 or 4 rate cuts of .25% in 2025) because Trump's policies are inflationary. This was confirmed by the chairman of the Fed in his last policy meeting, as he changed his line from 3 or 4 cuts in 2025 to 'we need to wait and see the data from Trump's policies'.

Holidaymakers don't really get a say in all of this to be honest. There are trillions of dollars of debt to service, trade deficits and surpluses to think about plus lots of other stuff. Nobody really cares if Karen has to fork out a couple more cents for her pi?a colada in Cancun.

If you think that those that run countries can't have any positive impact on the value of their currency, you are misguided. If Trump came out and announced a ceasefire in the Ukraine and Israel, you don't think the dollar would move?

If Trump banned Chinese imports into the US, you think that it wouldn't impact on the dollar?

The Board of Governors are under the control of the President, whoever he/she/them/they are - there's no true independence. Why do you think they dropped the rates just before the last US election?

[drillerpie]

Ok. Well, I tried! 🙂

[BigFatPie]

Ok. Well, I tried! 🙂

I tried to teach my dog Chinese, with similar results.

[Med Pie]

I tried to teach my dog Chinese, with similar results.

Don't despair, at least you manage to produce it fluently, post after derisive, post.

[BigFatPie]

Don't despair, at least you manage to produce it fluently, post after derisive, post.

I see the FTSEs booming today, does that make Rachel from accounts a financial genius?

[i961pie]

I see the FTSEs booming today, does that make Rachel from accounts a financial genius?

Only time will tell.

[lunaspie]

I tried to teach my dog Chinese, with similar results.

You faced a Boxer Rebellion ?

[Notsohumblepie]

I see the FTSEs booming today, does that make Rachel from accounts a financial genius?

London close: Stocks higher as UK growth misses forecasts
(Sharecast News) - London equities ended Thursday in positive territory, with investors buoyed by weaker-than-expected UK growth data that bolstered expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England next month

Your statement is dead right , but perhaps the causes leave room for a little less optimism

[BigFatPie]

London close: Stocks higher as UK growth misses forecasts
(Sharecast News) - London equities ended Thursday in positive territory, with investors buoyed by weaker-than-expected UK growth data that bolstered expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England next month

Your statement is dead right , but perhaps the causes leave room for a little less optimism

Add in inflation being lower than expected fuelling the expectation of interest rate cuts. Gilt yields are down as well.

Politicians have little control over many of these factors, calls for her to resign were as ridiculous as me coming on here claiming she deserves credit for some of the numbers now going the right way. She?s been chancellor for just over 6 months. Even more ridiculous is people trying to give Trump credit for stuff he hasnt been near yet.

In the UK the best thing we could do to get the numbers going the right way long term would be to rejoin the single market and customs union. I see Badenoch is taking the first baby steps to acknowledge what a colossal eff up the whole Brexit thing has been. It wouldnt surprise me at all if the Tories became pro more EU integration before Labour. They will if they have any sense.

[Med Pie]

Add in inflation being lower than expected fuelling the expectation of interest rate cuts. Gilt yields are down as well.

Politicians have little control over many of these factors, calls for her to resign were as ridiculous as me coming on here claiming she deserves credit for some of the numbers now going the right way. She?s been chancellor for just over 6 months. Even more ridiculous is people trying to give Trump credit for stuff he hasnt been near yet.

In the UK the best thing we could do to get the numbers going the right way long term would be to rejoin the single market and customs union. I see Badenoch is taking the first baby steps to acknowledge what a colossal eff up the whole Brexit thing has been. It wouldnt surprise me at all if the Tories became pro more EU integration before Labour. They will if they have any sense.

Just can't leave it behind can you, you realise that EU economies are faring worse that the UK? What would be the benefit, more cheap labour for millionaire factory owners and farmers, even more, foreign students?

If Starmer slides us back in to the EU, he will be as reviled as Thatcher.

The UK isn't the only country which is sick of 'incomers' btw, Spain has just announced the intention to impose 100% tax on none EU, property buyers.

[magpie_mania]

Just can't leave it behind can you, you realise that EU economies are faring worse that the UK? What would be the benefit, more cheap labour for millionaire factory owners and farmers, even more, foreign students?

If Starmer slides us back in to the EU, he will be as reviled as Thatcher.

The UK isn't the only country which is sick of 'incomers' btw, Spain has just announced the intention to impose 100% tax on none EU, property buyers.

I wonder what Cyprus thinks about incomes?

[magpie_mania]

Just can't leave it behind can you, you realise that EU economies are faring worse that the UK? What would be the benefit, more cheap labour for millionaire factory owners and farmers, even more, foreign students?

If Starmer slides us back in to the EU, he will be as reviled as Thatcher.

The UK isn't the only country which is sick of 'incomers' btw, Spain has just announced the intention to impose 100% tax on none EU, property buyers.

I wonder what Cyprus thinks about incomers?

[i961pie]

Add in inflation being lower than expected fuelling the expectation of interest rate cuts. Gilt yields are down as well.

Politicians have little control over many of these factors, calls for her to resign were as ridiculous as me coming on here claiming she deserves credit for some of the numbers now going the right way. She?s been chancellor for just over 6 months. Even more ridiculous is people trying to give Trump credit for stuff he hasnt been near yet.

In the UK the best thing we could do to get the numbers going the right way long term would be to rejoin the single market and customs union. I see Badenoch is taking the first baby steps to acknowledge what a colossal eff up the whole Brexit thing has been. It wouldnt surprise me at all if the Tories became pro more EU integration before Labour. They will if they have any sense.

I think it's more wishful thinking on your part.