O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[DaveyJohn]

Seems to be much support for no deal on here. By way of balance, is that really democratic?

I think I said earlier in this thread that we could loosely break down the people in the country into these Brexit preferences:

- No deal
- Hard Brexit al la ERG (Canada + type option)
- May's deal
- Soft Brexit with CU/SM Focus
- Remain

The problem is that the commons, and behind that, all of us are incredibly split behind these deal options. Or you could break it down this way:

- No deal
- Exit with deal of some kind
- Remain

Again, you'd find the nation very split between these options.


However you split it though, I would confidently say that there is only a small (but very passionate) minority for the No Deal with the vast majority (48% Remain + all of those who want a deal of sorts) makes up the vast majority of our electorate.

So, if you are arguing for a democratic outcome, how can it be argued that a No Deal is democratic and represents the majority of people?

(However, it is accepted that this notion was encouraged by the crass binary choice on the 2016 ballot paper. But surely, if we are trying to get a truly democratic outcome, we have to go for a compromise that loosely reflects the national majority?)

But with all the different types of deal fragmenting the Leave vote, as opposed to the one deal voted for by the Remain voters, how is it possible to even loosely reflect the national majority?

If we go all the way back to 2016, the "crass binary choice" on the ballot paper didn't mention a deal. I certainly don't recall the Leave campaigns making any kind of noises about the importance of securing a good deal should the Leave vote win. We'd already lost that argument when Cameron went to Brussels and tried to negotiate some UK only concessions that would allow us to remain in a "reformed European Union." He got absolutely zilch from the EU, and that set the tone for what we were up against. It was obvious from that point on that any negotiation with the EU was going to be extremely difficult bordering on impossible.

So when the Referendum happened, I would suggest that most people who had previously thought the UK could Leave and get a good deal would have opted to Remain. There was too much uncertainty in voting to Leave if ticking that box then relied heavily on getting major concessions from the EU. However, I would further suggest that the people who voted to Leave did so with the acceptance that "No Deal" was a very real possibility. Whether they understood the ramifications of this or not I couldn't say, both sides of the Referendum Campaigns were pretty disgraceful in their scaremongering tactics.

So whilst it's a fair comment that most on the Leave side would "prefer" some sort of a deal, I think it's also fair to say that those same people would also accept a No Deal scenario. It would be utterly foolish to vote to Leave if the thought of No Deal wasn't acceptable to the person making that vote.

[ragingpup]

So whilst it's a fair comment that most on the Leave side would "prefer" some sort of a deal, I think it's also fair to say that those same people would also accept a No Deal scenario. It would be utterly foolish to vote to Leave if the thought of No Deal wasn't acceptable to the person making that vote.

Fair points Davey but if "most on the Leave deal would "prefer some sort of deal" why are you appearing to discount their opinions on the deal that the government has secured, and will most likely amend further? You and I don't like this particular deal but for me, for all it's shortfalls on clarity, it's not a million miles away from what I would call a fair compromise, given the complexities of the Irish border.

So how can it be settled? How can we find out the extent that the nation accepts whatever compromise we agree with the EU on behalf of all of us and weigh that against the number of people who prefer a No Deal. I can only come back to the public vote on Gov't Deal v No Deal, with Remain not on the cards. Why wouldn't that be fair? If you're correct that most would want a No Deal out of those two options, then so be it. End of.

[DaveyJohn]

Fair points Davey but if "most on the Leave deal would "prefer some sort of deal" why are you appearing to discount their opinions on the deal that the government has secured, and will most likely amend further? You and I don't like this particular deal but for me, for all it's shortfalls on clarity, it's not a million miles away from what I would call a fair compromise, given the complexities of the Irish border.

So how can it be settled? How can we find out the extent that the nation accepts whatever compromise we agree with the EU on behalf of all of us and weigh that against the number of people who prefer a No Deal. I can only come back to the public vote on Gov't Deal v No Deal, with Remain not on the cards. Why wouldn't that be fair? If you're correct that most would want a No Deal out of those two options, then so be it. End of.

Have I made any comment on May's deal or any other deal? I don't think I have, I was responding to your confident assumption that only a small but passionate minority of the 52% who voted to Leave would accept No Deal and therefore to implement that would be the least democratic option.

I can't speak for 17million plus people, but the conversations I've had with Brexiteers follow a similar pattern of they simply voted to Leave the EU. They did so firmly with the knowledge that a "clean" break with No Deal was a very real possibility but they still put that tick in the Leave box. Much of the sentiment I've heard from Brexit voters (I'm talking members of public here not MP's and "experts") is that they would be content with the UK starting negotiations from a No Deal position and any deal on the table would be a bonus not a necessity. The clamor to get a deal began when the referendum vote came in and many experts and MPs etc suggested that No Deal would be a disaster. Then there are some people suggesting that it wouldn't be that bad, who do we believe? What are the agendas of people making such claims?

I agree with you that it's going to be very difficult to settle fairly and I do not have the answer. I don't think anyone does, just like nobody truly knows what will happen with any given Brexit outcome.

For what it's worth I don't know what to make of May's deal and the complexities of the Irish border are proving a real issue. I guess we will find out how workable the deal is once it goes to the vote.

A public vote on Gov't Deal vs No Deal would be interesting, because as you alluded to further up the thread, how would the 48% who opted to Remain vote? I would also confidently suggest that the section of people you talked about in one of your posts who prefer a soft Brexit with Customs Union etc still intact would be made up mostly of Remainers who have accepted that the original referendum result should stand.

[Exiletyke]

Have I made any comment on May's deal or any other deal? I don't think I have, I was responding to your confident assumption that only a small but passionate minority of the 52% who voted to Leave would accept No Deal and therefore to implement that would be the least democratic option.

I can't speak for 17million plus people, but the conversations I've had with Brexiteers follow a similar pattern of they simply voted to Leave the EU. They did so firmly with the knowledge that a "clean" break with No Deal was a very real possibility but they still put that tick in the Leave box. Much of the sentiment I've heard from Brexit voters (I'm talking members of public here not MP's and "experts") is that they would be content with the UK starting negotiations from a No Deal position and any deal on the table would be a bonus not a necessity. The clamor to get a deal began when the referendum vote came in and many experts and MPs etc suggested that No Deal would be a disaster. Then there are some people suggesting that it wouldn't be that bad, who do we believe? What are the agendas of people making such claims?

I agree with you that it's going to be very difficult to settle fairly and I do not have the answer. I don't think anyone does, just like nobody truly knows what will happen with any given Brexit outcome.

For what it's worth I don't know what to make of May's deal and the complexities of the Irish border are proving a real issue. I guess we will find out how workable the deal is once it goes to the vote.

A public vote on Gov't Deal vs No Deal would be interesting, because as you alluded to further up the thread, how would the 48% who opted to Remain vote? I would also confidently suggest that the section of people you talked about in one of your posts who prefer a soft Brexit with Customs Union etc still intact would be made up mostly of Remainers who have accepted that the original referendum result should stand.

I would also confidently suggest that the section of people you talked about in one of your posts who prefer a soft Brexit with Customs Union etc still intact would be made up mostly of Remainers who have accepted that the original referendum result should stand. [/Quote]


Don't you think that is a bit contradictory DJ?
CU & Brexit don't co exist

[Exiletyke]

I would also confidently suggest that the section of people you talked about in one of your posts who prefer a soft Brexit with Customs Union etc still intact would be made up mostly of Remainers who have accepted that the original referendum result should stand.

Don't you think that is a bit contradictory DJ?
CU & Brexit don't co exist[/QUOTE]

Just read A David Lloyd George quote which seems very apt

"Don't be afraid to take a big step if one is indicated. You can't cross a chasm in two small jumps."

[DaveyJohn]

I would also confidently suggest that the section of people you talked about in one of your posts who prefer a soft Brexit with Customs Union etc still intact would be made up mostly of Remainers who have accepted that the original referendum result should stand.


Don't you think that is a bit contradictory DJ?
CU & Brexit don't co exist

Yes I totally agree they don't co exist. I was making reference to one of Ragingpups earlier posts where he split the current national opinion into 5 sub categories;

1. No Deal
2. Hard Brexit
3. May's Deal
4. Soft Brexit with CU etc intact
5. Remain.

That's from memory I haven't scrolled back up so I apologise if there is something wrong. My point was, I would suggest that anyone who's opinion was in line with number 4 would probably have originally voted Remain. But since the referendum gave us a Leave vote, I would guess that these people are respecting the democartic process enough to honour Brexit, but want to make it as soft as possible. I can't imagine for one minute that anyone who voted to Leave in 2016 would have done so hoping that we'd keep all these arrangements in place, what would be the point? We'd still be as good as in the EU, only with no voting rights.

[Exiletyke]

Yes I totally agree they don't co exist. I was making reference to one of Ragingpups earlier posts where he split the current national opinion into 5 sub categories;

1. No Deal
2. Hard Brexit
3. May's Deal
4. Soft Brexit with CU etc intact
5. Remain.

That's from memory I haven't scrolled back up so I apologise if there is something wrong. My point was, I would suggest that anyone who's opinion was in line with number 4 would probably have originally voted Remain. But since the referendum gave us a Leave vote, I would guess that these people are respecting the democartic process enough to honour Brexit, but want to make it as soft as possible. I can't imagine for one minute that anyone who voted to Leave in 2016 would have done so hoping that we'd keep all these arrangements in place, what would be the point? We'd still be as good as in the EU, only with no voting rights.

Still not sure what you are suggesting
If these people want to respect the leave vote but want to make it as soft as possible by remaining in the CU aren't honouring the vote at all
It's what we have all been fed on since the vote ie we respect the result of the referendum but then proceed to ignore it

You can't leave the EU & remain in the CU [ bit like being a bit pregnant]

[KerrAvon]

Well it’s been a tough time for the Tories lately, but if they want to crack a smile, they should come on here to see the Left wingers falling out. We’ve got Exile and BigLaden taking positions that Farage would find a bit too extreme, whilst raging and WanChai are flying the flag for the ‘Metropolitan elite – let’s get behind Starmer and have another referendum’ wing of the party. In the meantime, poor old animal has given up relying on his Momentum twit feed telling him what to think and has simply taken to sticking his finger in the air to to see which way the wind is blowing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmTahAali90

It’s a good thing you lads aren’t going to get your General Election – the only civil war would be in your party.

[DaveyJohn]

Still not sure what you are suggesting
If these people want to respect the leave vote but want to make it as soft as possible by remaining in the CU aren't honouring the vote at all
It's what we have all been fed on since the vote ie we respect the result of the referendum but then proceed to ignore it

You can't leave the EU & remain in the CU [ bit like being a bit pregnant]

I'm commenting on five categories created by Ragingpup. Nothing more. I am suggesting anyone who believes in a "soft Brexit" can only have been a Remain voter. I'm pretty sure from your comments that you'd agree with that suggestion.