O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[jackal2]

A very difficult situation but seeing more of this I feel Putin is now isolating himself even more with remarkably his own people, it seems that the average Russian seems shocked by this, perhaps the end to all this will come from an unlikely source the Russian people themselves?

The striking thing for me about the current situation is that until now, Putin, whilst always likely to be be bold and aggressive, has always appeared to be playing a strategically smart game in pursuit of his aims. He'll test and tease his enemies and push as far as he thinks he can without quite going over the brink. Even the annexation of Crimea was a calculated gamble he was always likely to get away with.

He may - in the short term - get away with attacking Ukraine, but his actions now have a less strategic and more reckless feel about them, as if he has suddenly decided this is his 'death or glory' moment where he's either going to take everything he wants or die trying, no matter how much damage he does. Usually, Putin is quite a clever chooser of words to connote strength and a hint of menace whilst still retaining the veneer of statesmanship, but his latest statements have lacked that subtle balance and sound increasingly unhinged.

[legs77]

He was at Stamford Bridge in November

Yep that is 3-4 months back he used to be at all their games.

I might be wrong but I cant imagine he turns up Sunday.

[hissingdwarf]

The only way this is going to end is with serious bloodshed. Putin sees Russia as a historical impact player on the World stage. ‘The Russian Bear’ so to speak. He’s learnt a lot since 14 and the annexation of the Crimea. The Ukrainian land mass is seen by Putin as an inconvenience because it doesn’t aid Russian economic or military interests. The requirements of subjugation have been based on NATO refusal and to use Moscow as its guiding light. His need for a security buffer and his arrogance to assume Ukraine “isn’t” a Country in its own right means it’ll end on his chosen terms. No more no less. Will it spill into something bigger if he advances into any other ex Soviet satellite countries? Personally, no, because he knows then he’s not dealing with inconvenience. He’s dealing with the beginnings of WW3. He may be arrogant, but imo, not that arrogant.

Whilst I totally condemn the use of military force by Russia, I think it’s also fair to say there is an element of “we (The west being UK and USA) do the invading. Not other players.
Personally hope Putin falls flat on his face and is pushed back. But also studied enough of the geo-political area to know that won’t happen.

[SwalePie]

He was at Stamford Bridge in November

That didn't do King Harold much good, mind you that was September.

[hissingdwarf]

The striking thing for me about the current situation is that until now, Putin, whilst always likely to be be bold and aggressive, has always appeared to be playing a strategically smart game in pursuit of his aims. He'll test and tease his enemies and push as far as he thinks he can without quite going over the brink. Even the annexation of Crimea was a calculated gamble he was always likely to get away with.

He may - in the short term - get away with attacking Ukraine, but his actions now have a less strategic and more reckless feel about them, as if he has suddenly decided this is his 'death or glory' moment where he's either going to take everything he wants or die trying, no matter how much damage he does. Usually, Putin is quite a clever chooser of words to connote strength and a hint of menace whilst still retaining the veneer of statesmanship, but his latest statements have lacked that subtle balance and sound increasingly unhinged.

Agreed. He is not a man to let emotion rule, but recent press conferences and releases have shown the anger he feels towards the Ukraine. The personal affront that a former Soviet state would dare to question his ideals or choices.

After watching the live stream of his cabinet and defence meeting yesterday, it’s plainly obvious the other players in his committee aren’t just keeping their heads down and being led, they’re aware that their own ambitions are interwoven with Putin and now more than ever, agree and nod.

[magpie_mania]

Yep that is 3-4 months back he used to be at all their games.

I might be wrong but I cant imagine he turns up Sunday.

That was the first time in 3 years

[ForeignLegion]

The only way this is going to end is with serious bloodshed. Putin sees Russia as a historical impact player on the World stage. ‘The Russian Bear’ so to speak. He’s learnt a lot since 14 and the annexation of the Crimea. The Ukrainian land mass is seen by Putin as an inconvenience because it doesn’t aid Russian economic or military interests. The requirements of subjugation have been based on NATO refusal and to use Moscow as its guiding light. His need for a security buffer and his arrogance to assume Ukraine “isn’t” a Country in its own right means it’ll end on his chosen terms. No more no less. Will it spill into something bigger if he advances into any other ex Soviet satellite countries? Personally, no, because he knows then he’s not dealing with inconvenience. He’s dealing with the beginnings of WW3. He may be arrogant, but imo, not that arrogant.

Whilst I totally condemn the use of military force by Russia, I think it’s also fair to say there is an element of “we (The west being UK and USA) do the invading. Not other players.
Personally hope Putin falls flat on his face and is pushed back. But also studied enough of the geo-political area to know that won’t happen.

I always had an interest in foreign policy and geo-politics; as you’ve studied it can you recommend a good read? If possible I’d like a book that encapsulates it globally, not just confined to specific areas, if such a thing exists.

[hissingdwarf]

I always had an interest in foreign policy and geo-politics; as you’ve studied it can you recommend a good read? If possible I’d like a book that encapsulates it globally, not just confined to specific areas, if such a thing exists.

Your last few words got it in one! Any book that tries to encapsulate global geo politics, is, by its very nature, too unwieldy.
Regards recommended books…I tend not to do that so to speak. Start with the areas historical progress and then move to political mechanics.
Eg (after just saying I prefer not to recommend books!) Nicholas Riasanovsky History of Russia. It’s a heavyweight piece. Can be found split into two volumes. Don’t get me wrong, not an easy read at probably 1k pages of chartered history, but Historical context is everything imo. Putin bases all his beliefs and chooses his method of governance based on historical trends. He’s neither a communist or a socialist. He’s a methodical thinker whose ideologies span more than one ‘movement.’

After getting through the above as a starting point, it’s easy to find branches to follow.

No different to the Middle East. My other ‘sphere’ of knowledge and interest so to speak. Many modern day decisions can be tied to historical context. From there it’s seeing how that spreads into modern governance.

Not meant to sound patronising at all to anyone, but the key to geo-politics is the ability to see both sides of the conversation, good, bad or ugly. For every decision, there is a counter decision. For every political move by Putin now, he has planned his counter moves in advance.
The Ukraines flirtation with NATO didn’t start a few months ago. It’s been in the making for 8 years or more. Russia has spent the last decade manoeuvring itself and its economy to work independently of Western interest or interference.

[BanjoPie]

The only sanction has already been mentioned. The SWIFT system is the only thing that may hurt Russia, but only slightly. Putin may well come across as a “raving madman” as described by some, but all in all, he’s a shrewd operator who has had his hand firmly on the tiller for so long, he’s guided the Russian economy in the direction he wants it. The NordStream 2 was a blow, but it was anticipated by Russia.
The relationship with China means he has agreements where he needs it.

Interesting, is it true that the UK government want to ban Russia from using Swift but some EU countries won’t do it?

[hissingdwarf]

Interesting, is it true that the UK government want to ban Russia from using Swift but some EU countries won’t do it?

Yes it is. The EU, the UK and NATO are three very different beasts. Swift is a suggested sanction from countries such as the UK, but other EU members are not so keen because…in the most bluntest of terms…money is money. Whether it be dollars, rubles, or the Euro. When someone throws a screwdriver in the whole money movement system, there will be problems for all, not just Russia. But, as I say, Putin identified this as an option for the West a long time ago and even set up their own money movement and payment system, although not widely used, it shows the calculations have already took place and obviously he feels it’s an acceptable ‘sanction’ that Russia can absorb.

Sanctions are a really grey area for Putin. On one hand, he’s a cold, calculating bugger who is in total control and you’ve got to assume every path has been thought of and decisions made that they can carry on regardless.
On the other, his emotional outbursts over last 48 hours do show the veneer slipping slightly and questions are quite rightly being asked about his use of Russia as his way of solving, what he views as, vendettas.