O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[Old_pie]

When the coffins pile up and when soldiers return home to tell their families what is really happening then the truth will prevail.
You can fool all of the people some of the time but you can't fool them ALL of the time.

The Russians won't have a Wootton Bassett.

Edit: This is somewhat chilling:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

""I called my mum again. I told her I was scared. 'Don't worry', she said, reassuringly. 'They [Russia] will never bomb Kyiv'.""

[jackal2]

So, back to the Russians, how are they going to do anything? They’re constantly streamed propaganda, and arrested if they speak out. It seems that this can only play out the way Putin wants it. The question is, what is it that Putin wants?

Putin’s approval ratings in Russia are consistently high. It's tempting for us in the West to put this all down to propaganda and people living in fear of arrest, but that’s probably an over-simplification. Putin's desire to restore Russia to its former greatness (in his eyes) connects with a lot of ordinary Russians and the urge to rally around the flag is a strong one. Western media understandably give a lot of coverage to those protesting against the Russian regime, but if we kid ourselves that there's an overwhelming groundswell of angry Russians imminently preparing to topple Putin, we're likely to be disappointed.

So what is it that Putin wants? Is he an aggressor wanting to re-write the map back to the days when the USSR dominated Eastern Europe? Or is he seeking to defend Russia from the eastward march of NATO? The answer is probably both.

Without question, he has created a false pretence to attack the Ukraine and is therefore the outright and unjust aggressor in the current conflict. There's no doubt this is a mission to forcibly bring part of the former USSR back under Russian control. However, the reason for his urgency is the fear that if he doesn't take control of the Ukraine first, NATO will. In his narcissistic/sociopathic mind that’s a scenario to be averted at any cost, hence the current situation.

Towards the foot of this article on the BBC website there are two maps showing the current status of NATO countries in relation to the Russian border: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56720589.

When you look at these maps even through western eyes it's not difficult to understand why someone with Putin's mindset would see Russia – and himself - being increasingly surrounded and under threat from NATO and 'Western democracy'. The likes of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are already ‘gone’ to NATO and if Ukraine went too, effectively taking Moldova out of reach as well, Putin’s only remaining 'friend' amongst the former USSR states on these maps would be Lukashenko in Belarus, whose own position is far from secure. Putin was furious to see pro-Russian President Yanukovych being ousted by the Ukrainians in 2014 and knew he had effectively lost control of another FSU state.

So yes, Putin is the aggressor in the Ukraine, but it’s also a defensive, pre-emptive move. His priority is to claim and hold the remaining territory that hasn't already ‘fallen’ to the West, as he would see it. Aggression usually comes from a place of growing insecurity, and if there are also health and longevity concerns stewing in Putin’s mind, all apparently in increasing isolation, he’ll see this as a fight for his life and legacy.

[drillerpie]

I’ve not seen any evidence Starmer ever wanted a NFZ. I have a seen a lot of nonsense spread by Corbynites and Brexiters to deflect from their own previous support of Putin.

Having said that I think we’re inevitably going to reach a point where direct NATO action is unavoidable. Not there yet though.

I thought Bohinen was talking about the Ukranian leader, I could be mistaken but anyway that's who I was referring to in my reply.

[drillerpie]

What is "fair enough" to object about NATO? Did they force countries to join? History shows that there was resistance to former Eastern Bloc countries' applications.

It's fair enough in that it's a matter of opinion, as opposed to Putin's lies which are very often demonstrably absurd.

Personally I am pro NATO.

[BigFatPie]

I thought Bohinen was talking about the Ukranian leader, I could be mistaken but anyway that's who I was referring to in my reply.

Yep, you’re right. Sorry, my mistake.

[TSANHO]

How was Britain and the US invading and destroying Iraq and Afghanistan (on a lie) killing hundreds if not thousands of innocent civilians really any different to this invasion of Ukraine. Where were our sanctions or convictions for war crimes?

I don’t understand the disparity in condemnation and uproar between the two cases. I don’t condone Putins actions at all but I feel quite angry for some reason that it’s one rule for the West and one for Russia (and anyone else who doesn’t agree with US foreign policy).

Why is it alright to illegally blow up the Middle East on the US’s request but not to go and rightfully defend a sovereign nation? But it’s alright, we’re imposing sanctions and sending weapons….which will be intercepted and used by the Russians anyway. I feel angry that we’re lapping all of this news up - ‘Ukraine Invasion Special’ - when really we’ve served up equally terrible atrocities ourselves. I read further outrage that Russia may use Thermobaric weapons and they must be sanctioned if they do….the very same weapons that the US used in the past.

If we’re going to step up for a just cause then let’s do it, now, people like Putin only understand one thing. When is it right to not defend a country just because it isn’t part of NATO….what about just doing what is right, no matter how hard that would be?

Is there so little to gain from it?

Don’t Russia have weapons of mass destruction too?

[Old_pie]

How was Britain and the US invading and destroying Iraq and Afghanistan (on a lie) killing hundreds if not thousands of innocent civilians really any different to this invasion of Ukraine. Where were our sanctions or convictions for war crimes?

As bad as the second gulf war in particular, and Afghanistan were, the objective was not to make them "states of US". They were, with some justification, seen as sources of threat and as far as I know Ukraine was not and the only dissent really going on was that sewn by the Russians to prevent Ukraine, a democratic country by the way, from joining NATO.

I don’t understand the disparity in condemnation and uproar between the two cases. I don’t condone Putins actions at all but I feel quite angry for some reason that it’s one rule for the West and one for Russia (and anyone else who doesn’t agree with US foreign policy).

It was a coalition and didn't have the universal condemnation that the Russian invasion has. The West didn't need to shut down all media to tell lies to our populations.

Why is it alright to illegally blow up the Middle East on the US’s request but not to go and rightfully defend a sovereign nation? But it’s alright, we’re imposing sanctions and sending weapons….which will be intercepted and used by the Russians anyway. I feel angry that we’re lapping all of this news up - ‘Ukraine Invasion Special’ - when really we’ve served up equally terrible atrocities ourselves. I read further outrage that Russia may use Thermobaric weapons and they must be sanctioned if they do….the very same weapons that the US used in the past.

Russia is part of the UN Security Council. I don't think it's alright, and many others don't think it's alright that we've not taken military action to defend Ukraine. The stakes are high. We don't know the truth but it appears that Russia is not solely targetting military installations. In all wars there are errors but some errors may be more deliberate than others.

If we’re going to step up for a just cause then let’s do it, now, people like Putin only understand one thing. When is it right to not defend a country just because it isn’t part of NATO….what about just doing what is right, no matter how hard that would be?

Is there so little to gain from it?

It is not that there is little to gain it is that there is an awful lot to lose.

Don’t Russia have weapons of mass destruction too?

Indeed, and well verified (as opposed to Saddam's phantom WMDs). And that is the problem. There are nuclear armed submarines around the North sea and maybe nearer with London and Paris as their targets.

Million dollar question - do you think a losing Putin wouldn't?

[TSANHO]

Thanks for the thoughtful response….

In answer to the million dollar question, I don’t know….no-one does…but the longer we don’t do anything the stronger Putins position in the region will become. How long are we going to leave it until it becomes an even tougher task to overcome 2, 3, 4 years down the line? Imposing these sanctions will only strengthen Putins resolve in that he now has nothing to lose…he will carry on and on, he has to really (from his own point of view).

When Putin ordered first ordered troops into Ukraine I wondered if he had lost his marbles, if age had caught up with him, but now I’m starting to think he knew all along what our response would be and he has taken full advantage of it, he’s no fool. Being sanctioned so heavily will only make it easier to convince the Russian population that the West is against them. He knows now that we’re not going to stand against him on the battlefield, Ukraine will soon be his and we’ve stood by and done nothing….he’ll then strengthen his lines there and do the same to any other none NATO country under the same guise.

As for our own invasion of the Middle East, our lies were sold to the public with the power of multiple massive media organisations….we’re every bit as much (subtly) programmed and controlled as any other country in the world, so much so that there’s no need to ban social media. That there’s no debate on our shocking inactivity in proper support of Ukraine just shows how brain washed we are…we really think we’re making a difference. Listen to the Ukrainian President, he’s begging for military help, not sanctions.

Putin isn’t a hysterical idiot, he’d find a way to halt any further advance if he saw a combined western force stand firm against him….and a new Cold War would begin.

[Old_pie]

There aren't that many non-NATO bordering countries left to the West to go at. Finland, Sweden.

I think there is a lot of unhappiness about the West's stance and on this issue and as you say, Putin isn't a hysterical idiot, but he might be a desparate one. It is early days, I feel he has miscalculated and I expect there's an awful lot of hardware crossing the Polish border into Ukraine. The best hope is that his own people in power will turn against him and that would be a good outcome.

This of course is small comfort to the Ukranians who just wanted a nice western democratic life and are likely to pawns in some bigger game.

[matt_magpie]

Thanks for the thoughtful response….

In answer to the million dollar question, I don’t know….no-one does…but the longer we don’t do anything the stronger Putins position in the region will become. How long are we going to leave it until it becomes an even tougher task to overcome 2, 3, 4 years down the line? Imposing these sanctions will only strengthen Putins resolve in that he now has nothing to lose…he will carry on and on, he has to really (from his own point of view).

When Putin ordered first ordered troops into Ukraine I wondered if he had lost his marbles, if age had caught up with him, but now I’m starting to think he knew all along what our response would be and he has taken full advantage of it, he’s no fool. Being sanctioned so heavily will only make it easier to convince the Russian population that the West is against them. He knows now that we’re not going to stand against him on the battlefield, Ukraine will soon be his and we’ve stood by and done nothing….he’ll then strengthen his lines there and do the same to any other none NATO country under the same guise.

As for our own invasion of the Middle East, our lies were sold to the public with the power of multiple massive media organisations….we’re every bit as much (subtly) programmed and controlled as any other country in the world, so much so that there’s no need to ban social media. That there’s no debate on our shocking inactivity in proper support of Ukraine just shows how brain washed we are…we really think we’re making a difference. Listen to the Ukrainian President, he’s begging for military help, not sanctions.

Putin isn’t a hysterical idiot, he’d find a way to halt any further advance if he saw a combined western force stand firm against him….and a new Cold War would begin.

Totally agree after a few shandies, we basically invaded a country based on limited/no evidence. Was it all a masterplan, 911 was created by the west? A few hours in a flight simulator and u can just fly 2 planes bang if the middle of the 2 world trade centres and subsequently take them down? I know a couple of pilots and on manual that feat apparently is near impossible if you’re trained, but we ignore. I certainly think Putin 100% wrong but our actions can’t be ignored.