📝 Tobi Adebayo-Rowling Signs

[Notts78]

But those stats mean nothing. “Grimsby the only team to have gone up (so far) having lost 3 times in the play-offs”. What does it mean? If you lost 3 times already then there’s no chance of ever going up? What a load of b****x frankly. Maybe we’ve performed better than most of the other league sides relegated to the NL because we’ve reached the play-offs every year. 2 of those years complete disruptions from our near bankruptcy and COVID. I am very happy the club is being run well and am certain it will be sooner rather than later we step back up again. Of course I hoped it was this year (or the last two) but glad we’re not looking at impending doom at the end of each season any more. This league will continue to be tough to get promoted from but if we keep doing things right off the pitch then our chances on it will continue to improve. I hope the Reedtz are here for the long term and the style of football also - with the caveat I’ve put in other posts that we do need to add that steel in the middle.

A bit like a team finishing 6th has never made a play off final. Oh wait, that’s happened now.

[jacobncfc]

I thought Jacob might have made a fair point about teams getting over the line eventually after numerous play off set backs and, after checking it out was a bit surprised to see that Grimsby were the only team to have had 3 failures before going up. All three of theirs were in succession before they won the final, although their final league positions were slightly better:- 4th, 4th and 3rd before finishing 4th again the year they went up. They had finished 11th twice before that sequence and also lost two FA Trophy finals.

I meant going up in general. I can’t be bothered to look, but Luton definitely won the league after years of messing up the play-offs. I think these stats are basically meaningless fwiw, each season is a new one.

[laddo]

Appreciate you pointing this out, that I'm not a miserable old git by default.

The double whammy of Notts losing to Grimsby in the way they did and Fword going up has sent me into a tailspin.

I love your honesty

Even if we had beat Grimsby we don't win at Wrexham IMO , that's what I am clinging too in the face of obvious disappointment.

As for them across the river. I have seen far too many photos and videos on whatsapp groups and facebook of the play off final and the celebrations in the city centre since for a lifetime! Following their promotion I've decided to copy some on here and just blank out and ignore past seasons and events that particularly hurt.

I'm concentrating on all things Notts, supporting my beloved stylish pies in the National League.

[upthemaggies]

A bit like a team finishing 6th has never made a play off final. Oh wait, that’s happened now.

So what would that tell us then?

That it doesn't matter where you finish and there's no need to fight for a higher position.
That it's now ideal to finish 6th, so you should deliberately drop points if you're better placed near the finishing line.
Or that you're still less likely to reach the final finishing 6th and it is worth your while trying to finish higher.

[upthemaggies]

But those stats mean nothing..

If you ignore what those stats were posted in response to, the assertion that teams at this level regularly lose in the play offs before making it over the line, then yes, they won't mean very much.

[countygump]

So what would that tell us then?

That it doesn't matter where you finish and there's no need to fight for a higher position.
That it's now ideal to finish 6th, so you should deliberately drop points if you're better placed near the finishing line.
Or that you're still less likely to reach the final finishing 6th and it is worth your while trying to finish higher.

It tells us that the P/O's are a lottery and given a bit of luck and a half decent performance on the day, it's anyone's to win.

[upthemaggies]

It tells us that the P/O's are a lottery and given a bit of luck and a half decent performance on the day, it's anyone's to win.

For it to be a lottery, you'd expect to see an even spread of winning teams across the positions. Over say 100 years, that may yet turn out to be the case, but as of now, there's a very strong indication that the higher placed teams have the advantage.

5th tier final position and number of play off winners
2nd: 6 3rd: 8 4th: 5 5th: 0 6th: 0 7th: 0

[ALBOWLLY]

It tells us that the P/O's are a lottery and given a bit of luck and a half decent performance on the day, it's anyone's to win.

Much better to avoid the play-offs and do it the Lincoln City way. First time in the fifth tier bounce back at the first attempt as Champions. Second time down here fail to finish in the top-half for the first five seasons then appoint the right manager and go up as Champions again in the sixth.
Mind there aren't many Cowley Brothers around and next season would be preferable to 2024-25.

[countygump]

For it to be a lottery, you'd expect to see an even spread of winning teams across the positions. Over say 100 years, that may yet turn out to be the case, but as of now, there's a very strong indication that the higher placed teams have the advantage.

5th tier final position and number of play off winners
2nd: 6 3rd: 8 4th: 5 5th: 0 6th: 0 7th: 0

Given that the NL is stronger now than it's ever been, you would expect that stat to even out over the coming years.

[upthemaggies]

I meant going up in general. I can’t be bothered to look, but Luton definitely won the league after years of messing up the play-offs. I think these stats are basically meaningless fwiw, each season is a new one.

Luton had 3 play off failures also, the only champions to have lost that many, two were finals having finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th, they then missed out altogether before recovering in their 5th NL season to take the title.

Champions with number of play off failures

Stockport - 1
Sutton - 1
Barrow - 0
Orient - 0
Macc Town - 0
Lincoln - 0
Cheltenham - 0
Barnet - 0
Luton - 3
Mansfield - 1
Fleetwood - 1
Crawley - 0
Stevenage - 2
Burton - 1
Aldershot - 2
Dagenham - 1