How many points do we need to stay up?

[jockey]

According to OPTA stats 52 points would be need in League One this year to stay up - although the ten year average has been 48 points.

Lets split the difference and assume the normal 'safety line' of 50 points will apply.

We currently have 34 points with 12 games left, 5 at home and 7 away.

So assume 16 points are needed we would require say 5 wins and a draw or 4 wins and four draws.

Given to date we are averaging pretty much a point a game we have got to find some improvement from somewhere.

With this in mind if I had to bet sadly I think we will just fail unless somehow we can keep our better players outside the treatment room. Particular risk if Nombe gets crocked as we would have no fit centre forward.

To add to the pessimism our average odds with the bookies say we are 1/5 to go down.

On a more positive note I think 1/2 is more realistic!!

Finally grasping at straws a little we did go on a 9 match unbeaten mid season so if we can put a decent eleven on the field there is still hope. ( who wants to be boring mid -table anyway!)

[UlleyMiller]

According to OPTA stats 52 points would be need in League One this year to stay up - although the ten year average has been 48 points.

Lets split the difference and assume the normal 'safety line' of 50 points will apply.

We currently have 34 points with 12 games left, 5 at home and 7 away.

So assume 16 points are needed we would require say 5 wins and a draw or 4 wins and four draws.

Given to date we are averaging pretty much a point a game we have got to find some improvement from somewhere.

With this in mind if I had to bet sadly I think we will just fail unless somehow we can keep our better players outside the treatment room. Particular risk if Nombe gets crocked as we would have no fit centre forward.

To add to the pessimism our average odds with the bookies say we are 1/5 to go down.

On a more positive note I think 1/2 is more realistic!!

Finally grasping at straws a little we did go on a 9 match unbeaten mid season so if we can put a decent eleven on the field there is still hope. ( who wants to be boring mid -table anyway!)

51 will be enough at PPG of the current 20th placed team (they're heading for 50), but the one thing that has happened this season is teams are bunching up because of 'odd' results. Earlier on when we had our good run we were looking at play-offs being realistic, but shortly after it ended we're down in the sh**... mainly because there's no real break between contenders, mid-table and strugglers.

We're 1/5 because of where money has been placed, it has very little to do with probability. The money is going there because we have a very tough run-in (the next 6 are against teams in or still fancying the play-offs or better and 4 of them have beaten us in the reverse fixtures), we're carrying a lot of injuries, and we've looked incapable of scoring as the season ramps up (2 goals in six games is pitiful).

Make no bones about it, our situation is dreadful. We need solid mid-table form from here to scrape safe... if we fail to pick up more than the odd draw in these next 6 (the harder looking games), we'll need HMS Piss-the-league form to have any chance. MH needs to throw the sink at home games now, try to win them all - better to go down swinging than play for draws.

[Derbymiller]

we need to be the 5th worst team in the league and at the moment we are the 2nd worst team in the league, 51 points looks about right

[CAMiller]

The answer to the question is unfortunately 'too many'. Nostradamus has foreseen that we'll fall between 5 and 10pts short.

[avondalemiller]

The away games at Orient, Wigan and Port Vale will be crucial, lose any of them and i'd say adios to L1

[Derbymiller]

Not my fault gov……..MH yet again deflects away from himself onto his list of excuses, in his latest interview

“Four points from two games is good. We've gone through patches of not picking up points when we probably should have. That's been for a number of reasons - some (refereeing) decisions, some injuries, some fatigue.”

No mention of tactics, team selection in game decisions