OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

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To add some facts to this debate here are the migration stats for 2016, I'm sure Rog will look at these with interest!

And I'd say my 50% of EU returning is not a million miles away from reality!



Latest Migration Statistics, Year Ending December 2016


All Citizenships British Non-British EU Non-EU
Immigration 588,000 74,000 514,000 250,000 264,000

Emigration 339,000 134,000 206,000 117,000 88,000

Net Migration 248,000 -60,000 308,000 133,000 175,000

[ramAnag]

I might live in the Derbyshire dales and its stifling, small town atmosphere, but i work all over the place, where i currently have a contract has a workforce that is 60 40 ethnic to white british, so I am fully aware of the impact that previous immigration policy has had on the make up of some areas of the UK, although it has ever been the case that immigrants have come in and generally occupied the lower economic status of society and thus gravitate to the cheaper ares, it has also evr been the case that a proportion of the original population resents the fac that these immigrants are prepared to work hard to better themselves.

And whilst I agree with your point that immigration was a stick to beat those economically disadvantaged on the Brexit vote, in reality Brexit won't achieve what is being proposed. So whilst there is a connection and causal link in terms of the the Brexit debate, its the free movement of people from the EU that Andy in particular was saying was a problem and then extending that to say there is no benefit or that the numbers need to be reduced, without actually saying what the problem is and why reduction would be a good thing.

If there is going to be a sensible debate about immigration, then there needs to be clarity as to what people want and what the possible negative effects of what they want will be and to what level they are prepared to accept those negative effects.

I don't think the Derbyshire Dales has a 'stifling small town atmosphere'. It's more than a little parochial for sure but we both live there through choice so presumably, like me, you can't find it that bad.
I too have a professional awareness of other areas and still see what I see when I go back to my 'roots' and my old home town now seems to have more burkas than hair nets and head scarves.
That's no sort of a problem for me and we are actually largely in agreement, I think, regarding our view of the world...suspect we both loath racism, intolerance and bigotry etc.
I have just come to believe that we have to leave the comfort of our 'ivory towers' and realise that living as part of an indigenous minority whether that be amongst Pakistanis or Poles is not without its complications. I totally agree that immigration has a great many benefits but it does have some downsides and a grown up honest debate on the issue is overdue. If that exposes the racists for what they are so much the better but it may also identify those who are happy with the current situation to be naive idealists.

[swaledale]

I don't think the Derbyshire Dales has a 'stifling small town atmosphere'. It's more than a little parochial for sure but we both live there through choice so presumably, like me, you can't find it that bad.
I too have a professional awareness of other areas and still see what I see when I go back to my 'roots' and my old home town now seems to have more burkas than hair nets and head scarves.
That's no sort of a problem for me and we are actually largely in agreement, I think, regarding our view of the world...suspect we both loath racism, intolerance and bigotry etc.
I have just come to believe that we have to leave the comfort of our 'ivory towers' and realise that living as part of an indigenous minority whether that be amongst Pakistanis or Poles is not without its complications. I totally agree that immigration has a great many benefits but it does have some downsides and a grown up honest debate on the issue is overdue. If that exposes the racists for what they are so much the better but it may also identify those who are happy with the current situation to be naive idealists.

I came to live here through work and its ceased to be relevant on that score. I think you will find that the attitude to living amongst immigrants depends upon a number of factors, my brother lives in London and his street is a mix of nationalities as are his friends. I have a wide range of nationalities as friends and would have no issue living amongst them, would i want to live in the rundown streets of an inner city area? No, but then I wouldn't have wanted to live there when the population was predominantly white!

I'm not sure who is living in ivory towers, well many Tories in the Sires obviously, but certainly not me I interact with immigrants on a daily basis, both Eu and non EU.

I realise my stats are hard to intepret, but basically more non EU net migration then eu net migration and around the emmigration of EU migrants is approx half the immigration.

[Ram59]

There needs to be a balance of immigration though and I fear we're going over edge. I'm in Italy ATM, I love the Italian way of life, the food the drink, the pavement cafes, etc. They are not full of restaurants from other nationalities like ours are. I love going to Greece and France and will go to India and other places in the future, not just for the sights, but to enjoy the cultures. Soon there will be no English culture for people to come and experience.

[ramAnag]

I came to live here through work and its ceased to be relevant on that score. I think you will find that the attitude to living amongst immigrants depends upon a number of factors, my brother lives in London and his street is a mix of nationalities as are his friends. I have a wide range of nationalities as friends and would have no issue living amongst them, would i want to live in the rundown streets of an inner city area? No, but then I wouldn't have wanted to live there when the population was predominantly white!

I'm not sure who is living in ivory towers, well many Tories in the Sires obviously, but certainly not me I interact with immigrants on a daily basis, both Eu and non EU.

I realise my stats are hard to intepret, but basically more non EU net migration then eu net migration and around the emmigration of EU migrants is approx half the immigration.

I'm afraid you misunderstand me and I don't find your stats hard to interpret, they're just more relevant to your dispute with Andy than our discussion.
The problem isn't addressed by being able to complacently say 'I have a wide range of nationalities as friends' though...the problem, as I see it, is that the way immigration has been handled, for decades now, is that many areas of the country, including the poorer parts of south west Lancashire, West Yorkshire and many of our inner cities have been used as 'dumping grounds' - by the political elite - where poorer immigrant families and the poorest of the indigenous population are forced to live alongside each other with what appears to have become ever growing resentment.
I know that's not always the case and there will be some uplifting examples of cosmopolitanism at it's best. Bristol in particular seems a positive case but by and large, although 'immigrants' do not, in the main, cause the problem it is unhelpful to fail to recognise that problems have been caused by the mismanagement of immigration.
At the risk of being anecdotal, I have a very close family member who teaches a class of 36 with a spread of over a dozen different first languages. Even with thirty years of teaching experience behind me, I genuinely don't know how that is possible and it is a huge problem replicated many times around the poorer areas of our cities and towns. I don't for one moment blame immigrants for that situation but it is one born out of immigration and our society's/successive government's reluctance/inability to properly provide for the needs of such communities.
We are actually on the same side here but there is a need for some 'joined up' thought and open debate by those in power throughout the West.

[swaledale]

I'm afraid you misunderstand me and I don't find your stats hard to interpret, they're just more relevant to your dispute with Andy than our discussion.
The problem isn't addressed by being able to complacently say 'I have a wide range of nationalities as friends' though...the problem, as I see it, is that the way immigration has been handled, for decades now, is that many areas of the country, including the poorer parts of south west Lancashire, West Yorkshire and many of our inner cities have been used as 'dumping grounds' - by the political elite - where poorer immigrant families and the poorest of the indigenous population are forced to live alongside each other with what appears to have become ever growing resentment.
I know that's not always the case and there will be some uplifting examples of cosmopolitanism at it's best. Bristol in particular seems a positive case but by and large, although 'immigrants' do not, in the main, cause the problem it is unhelpful to fail to recognise that problems have been caused by the mismanagement of immigration.
At the risk of being anecdotal, I have a very close family member who teaches a class of 36 with a spread of over a dozen different first languages. Even with thirty years of teaching experience behind me, I genuinely don't know how that is possible and it is a huge problem replicated many times around the poorer areas of our cities and towns. I don't for one moment blame immigrants for that situation but it is one born out of immigration and our society's/successive government's reluctance/inability to properly provide for the needs of such communities.
We are actually on the same side here but there is a need for some 'joined up' thought and open debate by those in power throughout the West.

Actually the stats were for Andy and Rog!!

Mm dumping grounds is not actually the reality, the cycle of the poorer elements of society have always finished up in the poorer parts of town. But there are areas such as Sunderland and Teesside, newcastle, where there aren't concentrations of immigrants and yet the reason given for the people there to vote leave was about immigrants, these folk have been ****ed over royally by successive governments, but also people who are better off don't give a **** either, which is why they are happy to go along with the mantra of cuts in public services and tax cuts.

The thing is if society does not care for those left behind and believes in survival of the fittest, then you will get the backlash in crime etc. whihc will threaten the fabric of society we all live in.

I know we are are (largely) on the same sign, but the point i was making was that its not solely about immigration its a whole lot more complex than that and its largely about economics, immigrants and immigration are a useful scapegoat, and one thats been rolled out countless times in history because it plays on the fears and prejudices of people.

[ramAnag]

Actually the stats were for Andy and Rog!!

Mm dumping grounds is not actually the reality, the cycle of the poorer elements of society have always finished up in the poorer parts of town. But there are areas such as Sunderland and Teesside, newcastle, where there aren't concentrations of immigrants and yet the reason given for the people there to vote leave was about immigrants, these folk have been ****ed over royally by successive governments, but also people who are better off don't give a **** either, which is why they are happy to go along with the mantra of cuts in public services and tax cuts.

The thing is if society does not care for those left behind and believes in survival of the fittest, then you will get the backlash in crime etc. whihc will threaten the fabric of society we all live in.

I know we are are (largely) on the same sign, but the point i was making was that its not solely about immigration its a whole lot more complex than that and its largely about economics, immigrants and immigration are a useful scapegoat, and one thats been rolled out countless times in history because it plays on the fears and prejudices of people.

As I said, we are in broad agreement. I've never suggested that the problem was 'solely about immigration', but it is a factor, or its management is, and although I agree it 'plays on the fears and prejudices of people' (UKIP, NF, EDL etc)...to suggest that there are issues because of immigration, as AF did (and as opposed to Ram59's slightly hysterical 'soon there will be no English culture left') is entirely correct.

[Andy_Faber]

If there is going to be a sensible debate about immigration, then there needs to be clarity as to what people want and what the possible negative effects of what they want will be and to what level they are prepared to accept those negative effects.

If my fairly massive and possibly representative facebook news feed can be trusted (and I delete extremists of any stance), the three big issues are

Impact on public services/infrastructure (espec schooling, common criminality and housing market)
Impact on job market (availability of, reward from)
Perception that the British/Western way of life is under threat

Apart from by anecdote I can only directly relate to the first one, but in all cases the groundswell of opinion is too great and too heartfelt to just be ignored.

Regarding effect, the same people again in a heartfelt way don't believe there are negative effects to be had, and its not a question of whether they are right or not, because they act based on their perceptions (see Brexit)

[swaledale]

If my fairly massive and possibly representative facebook news feed can be trusted (and I delete extremists of any stance), the three big issues are

Impact on public services/infrastructure (espec schooling, common criminality and housing market)
Impact on job market (availability of, reward from)
Perception that the British/Western way of life is under threat

Apart from by anecdote I can only directly relate to the first one, but in all cases the groundswell of opinion is too great and too heartfelt to just be ignored.

Regarding effect, the same people again in a heartfelt way don't believe there are negative effects to be had, and its not a question of whether they are right or not, because they act based on their perceptions (see Brexit)

Don't disagree with the perceptions its just that the facts don't support the perceptions!

Schools - wehther the population grows through increased birth rate or immigrants, the pressure is caused by failure to invest by government or in the Tory's case bu cuts - recent research shows that more people believe its cuts that have damaged schools rather than immigration.

Criminality - most research shows that immigrants are no more disposed to criminality than native people its just that those with an agenda like to highlight crimes committed by immigrants and forget those committed by natives.

Housing market or housing supply? Most immigrants rent, there is no evidence to suggest that they push rents up as they tend to live in poorer quality areas - but in any area where there is economic growth, will see demand for both rented and housing for sale this will push prices up - but and its a BIG but, that in itself is not down to immigrants.

There is a groundswell of opinion, but given the narrowness of the vote in favour of Brexit (not all of which was fuelled by immigration, a good percentage voted leave to get an extra £350 million spent on the NHS, or to reduce what they see as control over laws - their is not as much resonance as one might think in favour of the view that immigration is a problem per se, but lets be generous and say 35 - 40 % of people do think its a problem and your right their views need addressing, but the way to do this is look at the facts and explain them and how the matters that affect them can be resolved rather than pander to prejudice and ill informed opinion surely?

As for those who don't believe that controlling (or stopping, because thats what these people mean) immigration won't have a negative effect, well I'm guessing that when the economic effects directly hit them, they might think differently!

[Andy_Faber]

Don't disagree with the perceptions its just that the facts don't support the perceptions!

....except as usual they aren't facts they are your opinions dressed as facts.

In an earlier comment, Ramanag said 'At the risk of being anecdotal, I have a very close family member who teaches a class of 36 with a spread of over a dozen different first languages. Even with thirty years of teaching experience behind me, I genuinely don't know how that is possible'. That's a great example which even your political bias can't smooth away, but I'd welcome hearing you try. I choose that one because with my kids too old for school I genuinely have no connection with it other than the taxes I pay

[ramAnag]

....except as usual they aren't facts they are your opinions dressed as facts.

In an earlier comment, Ramanag said 'At the risk of being anecdotal, I have a very close family member who teaches a class of 36 with a spread of over a dozen different first languages. Even with thirty years of teaching experience behind me, I genuinely don't know how that is possible'. That's a great example which even your political bias can't smooth away, but I'd welcome hearing you try. I choose that one because with my kids too old for school I genuinely have no connection with it other than the taxes I pay

It's not about Swale's 'political bias' though Andy...you two 'swapping punches' is what I'm trying to get away from. You're two intelligent guys who come from only slightly different perspectives. You have a point but so too does Swale. There are problems associated with immigration which Swale is possibly too idealistic to admit to but, imo and as my example refers to, many are caused by under investment and our political elite following the most 'convenient' route. If you two can't find some common ground without coming to 'blows' then what hope the dimwits with their vested interests in the la la land of Westminster.

[Andy_Faber]

It's not about Swale's 'political bias' though Andy...you two 'swapping punches' is what I'm trying to get away from. You're two intelligent guys who come from only slightly different perspectives. You have a point but so too does Swale. There are problems associated with immigration which Swale is possibly too idealistic to admit to but, imo and as my example refers to, many are caused by under investment and our political elite following the most 'convenient' route. If you two can't find some common ground without coming to 'blows' then what hope the dimwits with their vested interests in the la la land of Westminster.

I don't think we do have only slightly different perspectives but if its become the Swale and Faber show I'll back off and change my style.

[roger_ramjet]

Perhaps you should emigrate Andy

[Andy_Faber]

Perhaps you should emigrate Andy

I could but the area I travel to is rammed with British racists!

[roger_ramjet]

Thats the problem with emigrating to Barnsley