OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

Let's look at this more closely. The Conservative candidate that lost was mp for that constituency since 2015 and, having been found guilty of fraud, was removed from office by recall petition - ie at least 10% of the electorate petitioned for him to be slung out and a bye election called.

He then stood again and, shock horror, lost. Do you think that outcome was down to his, or the Brexit, issue?

No doubt both were influential but I'd say he would have lost that seat regardless of the influence of Brexit.

For sure Bojo's majority is down but please don't claim this as a victory for remain. Its down to the standing MP being convicted of financial crimes just below the threshold for automatic disqualification, and the electorate telling him what they think of him

Fair point GP...bit of both I think, but at the end of the day...the only avowedly Remain Party in the country won the seat back from the Tories and the Brexit Party got less than 10% of the vote.
Whichever way you look at it that isn’t a ringing endorsement of Bodger’s new Premiership or any sort of mandate for a no deal Brexit...what it does reinforce perhaps is the reasoning behind the Leavers’ refusal to consider a second referendum.

[Trickytreesreds]

Add to that, other remain leaning parties stood aside to allow for that vote to go to the Lib Dems. And they STILL only won by 1425 votes. You could argue that the leave vote was split with the Brexit Party running and gaining +3k votes.

Ra, you really should not be trying to claim any sort of victory on yesterdays result. Step back, think and then type.

Labour only got 1680 votes..

Exactly AR.
Perhaps the Brexit party should have stood to one side as well then, if tactical voting is the order of the day?

This was a Welsh vote and Plaid Cymru, bailed out.
Says it all really.
To claim a remain victory, is quite frankly, laughable.

[ramAnag]

Exactly AR.
Perhaps the Brexit party should have stood to one side as well then, if tactical voting is the order of the day?

This was a Welsh vote and Plaid Cymru, bailed out.
Says it all really.
To claim a remain victory, is quite frankly, laughable.

Clearly it isn’t ‘laughable’, Tricky because the party that won is a 100% Remain party.
It may have been the political equivalent of a scratchy last minute og 2-1 win but you’ve been claiming ‘victory’ on such grounds ever since the Referendum.

Putting things in context...we have a brand new full of (misplaced imo) optimism PM and Brexit has been the single issue dominating UK politics for over three years. Not only did the brand new PM’s Party lose the seat but, as I’ve said, the Brexit Party attracted less than 10% of the vote. I don’t think I claimed spectacular ‘victory’ but what I did say was that it wasn’t a resounding endorsement of either Brexit or it’s arch advocate...now which bit of that is incorrect?

[Geoff Parkstone]

If we could turn back time....

I wonder what the outcome would have been if the Tories had not fielded a tainted candidate and if the Brexit party had followed Plaid Cymru with tactical withdrawals to direct Brexit voters to a clean tory candidate.

The world is full of what ifs!

[ramAnag]

If we could turn back time....

I wonder what the outcome would have been if the Tories had not fielded a tainted candidate and if the Brexit party had followed Plaid Cymru with tactical withdrawals to direct Brexit voters to a clean tory candidate.

The world is full of what ifs!

If we could turn back time...
I wonder if we’d have been spared the last forty months of nonsense if the Tory Party hadn’t ransomed the country’s future to sorting its own problems out, if the Referendum hadn’t been dominated by lies and rule breaking and if the main opposition Party had had any sort of half decent leadership.

As you say, GP...’the world is full of what ifs!’...and the cricket’s starting.

[AngryRam]

Clearly it isn’t ‘laughable’, Tricky because the party that won is a 100% Remain party.
It may have been the political equivalent of a scratchy last minute og 2-1 win but you’ve been claiming ‘victory’ on such grounds ever since the Referendum.

Putting things in context...we have a brand new full of (misplaced imo) optimism PM and Brexit has been the single issue dominating UK politics for over three years. Not only did the brand new PM’s Party lose the seat but, as I’ve said, the Brexit Party attracted less than 10% of the vote. I don’t think I claimed spectacular ‘victory’ but what I did say was that it wasn’t a resounding endorsement of either Brexit or it’s arch advocate...now which bit of that is incorrect?

Could be argued (as Geoff did), that this was not a single issue election.
The Tories have moved nearer to being a Leave party with Boris at the helm, that will swing some of the Brexit Party voters back to them.
For the Lib Dems to scramble over the line on such a single mandate and others pulling out, then they should be worried. Very worried.
I would think that given the circumstances of this by-election, the losers would be more happy than the winners.
The Tories and The Brexit Party need to be aware of this scenario going forward. It will work against them.

[ramAnag]

Could be argued (as Geoff did), that this was not a single issue election.
The Tories have moved nearer to being a Leave party with Boris at the helm, that will swing some of the Brexit Party voters back to them.
For the Lib Dems to scramble over the line on such a single mandate and others pulling out, then they should be worried. Very worried.
I would think that given the circumstances of this by-election, the losers would be more happy than the winners.
The Tories and The Brexit Party need to be aware of this scenario going forward. It will work against them.

Indeed...as GP has already suggested and I have already acknowledged.

The Cabinet has moved more towards Leave, doubt the Party has. Difficult to assess with them all on holiday.

They’d have been a lot more ‘worried’ had they lost.

Really? Bet the Tories were absolutely cock-a-hoop last night.

You’re probably right on the last one but there’s so much self interest in politics today - and those two Parties in particular - I’m not sure they’ll be able to work it all out. Certainly hope you’re right.

[AngryRam]

Indeed...as GP has already suggested and I have already acknowledged.

The Cabinet has moved more towards Leave, doubt the Party has. Difficult to assess with them all on holiday.

They’d have been a lot more ‘worried’ had they lost.

Really? Bet the Tories were absolutely cock-a-hoop last night.

You’re probably right on the last one but there’s so much self interest in politics today - and those two Parties in particular - I’m not sure they’ll be able to work it all out. Certainly hope you’re right.

I thought the 'cabinet' in total was more remainers than leavers. Granted the more important roles have leavers in them but overall it is a remain cabinet.

I disagree about the Tories last night. They would have written off that seat after all the drama beforehand.

[MadAmster]

I think we can say that the cabinet are all leavers now as the only choice BoJo is giving is whether or not there will be a deal and they all had to sign up to No Deal being on the table as a real option in the negotiations. He says we will be out on October 31st. It's merely a matter of how.

On another note, and I realise it's "only the Telegraph" but they printed this today claiming the EU has more to fear from a No Deal Brext than the UK does. Are they right or just printing more project fear?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/01/europe-has-fear-no-deal-brexit-britain/?fbclid=IwAR2FkAOjFCuJt_-u1xOPZ6oAkMjPLgCc5-1xewA95I-2oTSAItbkYRjgA2E

[AngryRam]

I think we can say that the cabinet are all leavers now as the only choice BoJo is giving is whether or not there will be a deal and they all had to sign up to No Deal being on the table as a real option in the negotiations. He says we will be out on October 31st. It's merely a matter of how.

On another note, and I realise it's "only the Telegraph" but they printed this today claiming the EU has more to fear from a No Deal Brext than the UK does. Are they right or just printing more project fear?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...TSAItbkYRjgA2E

The EU does have a lot to lose and when you get past the rhetoric they understand this.. I was last week in Brussels attending some meetings and they really don't want us to leave without a good relationship. The transition period (without and back stop) makes a lot of sense for everyone. 2 years to finalise a deal is doable if we keep petty squabbles and politics out of it.

I was also in Paris and if ever there was a reason to leave the EU, it's the French. What a mess that country is socially. It is teetering on the edge. Feelings are very strong there on a number of issues and the 'far right', as you lot would call it is growing stronger.
Employment laws in France are a nightmare, all driven by socialist policies. Keep em. It's like the dark ages.

I'm all for Johnson having Remainers in his cabinet, as long as they are seen and not heard. (Joke Alert)

[MadAmster]

I never thought I'd say anything like this but it seems EU thoughts might be changing now they are facing a raging bull (Boris) rather than mild mannered May who was so desperate to either have the UK remain or have it shackled by her capitulation of deal that the EU wrote and she signed without very much negotiation. Might this have gone much smoother had we had BoJo rather than May since 2016?

[AngryRam]

I never thought I'd say anything like this but it seems EU thoughts might be changing now they are facing a raging bull (Boris) rather than mild mannered May who was so desperate to either have the UK remain or have it shackled by her capitulation of deal that the EU wrote and she signed without very much negotiation. Might this have gone much smoother had we had BoJo rather than May since 2016?

Yes. She never believed.

[ramAnag]

I never thought I'd say anything like this but it seems EU thoughts might be changing now they are facing a raging bull (Boris) rather than mild mannered May who was so desperate to either have the UK remain or have it shackled by her capitulation of deal that the EU wrote and she signed without very much negotiation. Might this have gone much smoother had we had BoJo rather than May since 2016?

Not sure what your evidence for that is MA. Anyway, the initial negotiations were conducted by David Davis...absolute prat imo but a dedicated and committed Brexiteer.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Under orders.....

[Trickytreesreds]

Not sure what your evidence for that is MA. Anyway, the initial negotiations were conducted by David Davis...absolute prat imo but a dedicated and committed Brexiteer.

The same David Davis who quit, after refusing to commit to May's capitulation and back door remain stance?
Please RA spare me.
May fooled the lot of us.
Camerons lap dog, who tried to carry out his wishes of lashing us to the EUSSR.

Sorry, but it hasn't worked, no matter how many times she tried to push it through.
Embarrassing really, as to how stupid she thought everyone was.

https://metro.co.uk/2018/07/09/david-davis-quits-brexit-secretary-mays-plan-leave-eu-7693516/