OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Geoff Parkstone]

Are you a secret jock?

[MadAmster]

Are you a secret jock?

No, I'm a disc j...

[swaledale]

We already have a better deal in the Eu than most other EU Members.

The UK enjoys full membership of the single market and the customs union as well as opt-outs from the euro, the borderless Schengen Zone and home affairs policy, and a £4.9bn budget rebate. It received – and then rightly reversed – an exemption from the Social Chapter, which guaranteed workers a minimum of 28 days’ paid holiday per year, maternity and paternity leave and equal rights for part-time employees.

The irony of the Brexiteers demanding “flexibility” from Brussels during the Brexit negotiations is that the EU so often showed it before. No member state has ever been granted a better deal – and no state ever will be. Any British prime minister who negotiated such an agreement today would be lauded as a supreme dealmaker

True, the EU did not grant the UK greater control of free movement (though its economic and social benefits are plain). But Cameron was awarded notable concessions during his renegotiation of the UK’s membership. They included an official exemption from “ever closer union”, a four-year ban on in-work benefits for EU migrants (activable for seven years) and greater safeguards for the City of London.

In the case of free movement, the UK already has the flexibility to impose greater control. Though EU citizens are initially permitted to live in any member state, after three months they must prove that they are working (employed or self-employed), a registered student or have “sufficient resources” (savings or a pension) to support themselves and not be “a burden on the benefits system”. Far from being unconditional, then, the right to free movement is highly qualified.

Johnson’s proposed deal, will be profoundly worse than the deal the UK already has.

[Geoff Parkstone]

I'm afraid I have to agree with that analysis Swale. We should have left well alone 4 years ago

[ramAnag]

I'm afraid I have to agree with that analysis Swale. We should have left well alone 4 years ago

Why the reluctance...why are you ‘afraid to have to agree’ with Swale’s analysis?
Set all the taunting, personalising and pontificating aside and that analysis represents the nub of the argument.
You probably have as clear an understanding of the economics of the situation as anyone on here, but still you sit on the fence until, when push comes to shove, you just about admit to favouring the Remain side.
Isn’t the fact of the matter though...whichever Brexit deal we end up with we will be worse off than we are with the agreement we already have?

[Geoff Parkstone]

Reluctant since its Swale!! But in this case he sums up the position as well as I've seen without the usual bluster abuse and cussing.

That said, the withdrawal agreement is just that, who knows what trade deals etc lie ahead. We have more years of this to run, so post 10k may yet arrive.

I remain concerned about "Big Europe", centralisation and the lack of democracy and accountability within the system, but the last two years have shown that we are no role model for democracy ourselves.

The next few days could see the unholy union of those who have nothing and those who have everything coming together at the expense of the middle.

So be it - it's out of your and my control now, but then again it always was

[MadAmster]

Swale's piece is a fair portrayal of the downside as it looks right now.

We will have to wait 2 years to see what kind of trade deal ensues, provided this deal is accepted by the Commons and the Lords.

As with GP, I remain concerned about "Big Europe", centralisation and the lack of democracy and accountability within the system. Add to the huge disparity in what the populace of Greece, Italy and Spain see as "normal" and what they expect from their government and what they are (not) prepared to pay for it compared to what the populace of the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands find acceptable and then add in what the former Eastern Bloc countries (with at least 2 more of them waiting in the wings) expect/demand from the EU. It will become an even greater unworkable monolith that costs ever more money and "Brussels" will demand more and more money and power. It will become a dictatorship.

I can't argue with Swale's portrayal, however, the hazardous future I foresee weighs heavier on me than whatever any loss might be once the new trade deal has been concocted.

Whatever happens, come November 1st, or later if another extension is granted, I will still be in the EU but would rather be out of it or part of the free trade association it once was. There are too many, too large differences between the various member states to warrant the goal of a US of E ever being achieved.

[ramAnag]

‘There are too many, too large differences between the various member states to warrant the goal of a US of E ever being achieved.’

Exactly so, MA...totally agree.
I also, as you know, share some of your concerns about ‘Big Europe’...but if we’re going to have a worse deal than we’ve currently got and a ‘US of E’ isn’t anything like as likely as the Brexit scaremongers have constantly warned, then what on earth have the last three and a half years all been about?

Complete waste of time and money which has benefited no one other than those such as Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Duncan-Smith, Raab and Co. who, without Brexit, would return to their rightful place of right wing political nonentities.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Anyone here got a second / holiday home in Spain? Andy, rA? Another side effect of Brexit is that you will have to pay 24% Spanish tax on the gross rental income as a non EU resident, instead of 19% on the net after expenses rent that an EU member has to pay now. Don't rent your property out? Not a problem they will tax you on a notional deemed rent, as a second homeowner, at around 2% of "rateable value" (or equivalent) of property. Oh yes and CGT and IT rues have become more hostile.

Now we know why rA wanted to remain!

This does not constitute investment advice..........

[Trickytreesreds]

Swale's piece is a fair portrayal of the downside as it looks right now.

We will have to wait 2 years to see what kind of trade deal ensues, provided this deal is accepted by the Commons and the Lords.

As with GP, I remain concerned about "Big Europe", centralisation and the lack of democracy and accountability within the system. Add to the huge disparity in what the populace of Greece, Italy and Spain see as "normal" and what they expect from their government and what they are (not) prepared to pay for it compared to what the populace of the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands find acceptable and then add in what the former Eastern Bloc countries (with at least 2 more of them waiting in the wings) expect/demand from the EU. It will become an even greater unworkable monolith that costs ever more money and "Brussels" will demand more and more money and power. It will become a dictatorship.

I can't argue with Swale's portrayal, however, the hazardous future I foresee weighs heavier on me than whatever any loss might be once the new trade deal has been concocted.

Whatever happens, come November 1st, or later if another extension is granted, I will still be in the EU but would rather be out of it or part of the free trade association it once was. There are too many, too large differences between the various member states to warrant the goal of a US of E ever being achieved.

Nice post. It isn't just about economics. It's about the the goal of a USE.
Economics was the reason we joined. We got a vote on that.
It was hijacked into a political project. We never got a vote on that.

[ramAnag]

Anyone here got a second / holiday home in Spain? Andy, rA? Another side effect of Brexit is that you will have to pay 24% Spanish tax on the gross rental income as a non EU resident, instead of 19% on the net after expenses rent that an EU member has to pay now. Don't rent your property out? Not a problem they will tax you on a notional deemed rent, as a second homeowner, at around 2% of "rateable value" (or equivalent) of property. Oh yes and CGT and IT rues have become more hostile.

Now we know why rA wanted to remain!

This does not constitute investment advice..........

Bizarre! You ask a question...answer it completely wrongly...then jump to a completely bogus conclusion.

I think everyone knows Andy is renovating a second home in Spain...I’m not and I have no second home anywhere at all Parky.

You want to know why I want to remain? Quite simple...I think it’s in the best interests of the people in both the country and the continent I am a resident of.

[ramAnag]

Nice post. It isn't just about economics. It's about the the goal of a USE.
Economics was the reason we joined. We got a vote on that.
It was hijacked into a political project. We never got a vote on that.

It was a nice post, I agree...but given your obsession with the possibility of a US of E aren’t you reassured by MA’s suggestion that because of the enormous differences between the member countries it isn’t going to happen?

[Geoff Parkstone]

I didn't answer the question but rather focused the question further on the two hispanophiles that are site resident. That's what the funny hook like mark means following the names 🤔

I thought Andy was doing something to a house there, and you have oft spoken of visiting the country. Hence my focusing the question at the two of you.

Anyway on that basis you don't need to know about the post Brexit tax hikes for folk like Andy, but maybe he might like to know, please unread my post.

Bit of a sense of humour failure re the last paragraph I suspect.... or do your Liberal leanings mean you wouldn't contemplate a second home when there are plenty around with none? (that's a question not an answer, hence the hook)

[ramAnag]

I didn't answer the question but rather focused the question further on the two hispanophiles that are site resident. That's what the funny hook like mark means following the names ��

I thought Andy was doing something to a house there, and you have oft spoken of visiting the country. Hence my focusing the question at the two of you.

Anyway on that basis you don't need to know about the post Brexit tax hikes for folk like Andy, but maybe he might like to know, please unread my post.

Bit of a sense of humour failure re the last paragraph I suspect.... or do your Liberal leanings mean you wouldn't contemplate a second home when there are plenty around with none? (that's a question not an answer, hence the hook)

Your assertion that ‘Now we know why rA wanted to remain!’ ended with an exclamation mark not a ‘funny hook like mark’ and was wrong in every respect.

Sense of humour failure? If you like...just pissed off with all the lies and rubbish that’re being spoken and the gradual mood swing towards ‘oh let’s just get it done’ that seems to be gaining momentum.

It’s too important an issue not to be afforded proper scrutiny.

[Trickytreesreds]

It was a nice post, I agree...but given your obsession with the possibility of a US of E aren’t you reassured by MA’s suggestion that because of the enormous differences between the member countries it isn’t going to happen?

No I'm not.

When I hear, Juncker/Macron/Verhofstadt scream about ever closer union/an army/ one border/ one currency and take a look at how close they've got to that inside 40 years. Then it is inevitable that at some point they will achieve it. Masstricht/ then Lisbon brought that ever closer. Deny it/ignore it all you want, it's happening right now.
What ever the differences are, there or not, it isn't stopping them is it|?

We joined a group of nine similar countries, for a trade agreement. Fact /or fiction?

What has changed since then? Have we had a vote on it?

If you really do not believe that the EU is driving towards a superstate, when words like "empire" with it's own "army" are being used.
Then I bow to your bubble that you live in.