OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

As I see things, and I may be wrong and am under no illusion that you won't tell me so and why, what's left of UK manufacturing will be left with decisions to make. Anything and everything they export to the EU will ALWAYS have to adhere to EU Laws/standards on quality, health and safety etc. just as everybody wishing to export to the UK from wherever in the world will have to adhere to UK Laws and standards unless they are reduced for one or more countries as part of a trade deal (Chlorinated chicked and growth hormone infested beef from the USA to name but 2 - both things I would hope people wouldn't buy, n matter how cheap they were but..... they will. won't they?).

Do they also make similar goods of a lesser standard to export to places that will accept slightly inferior products of simply make quality stuff for everybody, knowing that some countries will demand lower prices because they are poorer than the EU or elsewhere?

Having said that, I think the Tories are looking to increase the financial and services areas and don't seem particularly bothered with manufacturing. Time will tell.

I also think that BoJo's Scotland to Ireland bridge will never get built but still cost millions, maybe even hundreds of miilions, the same as happened with his garden bridge in London that never got built but still cost £52M.

He has already let all his Ministers know they have to reduce their budgets by 5%......... and they said cost cutting was over and they would be spending again. No money for health, education, HS2 etc. Plenty left in the tank though for tax cuts for the mega rich and the multinational corporations.

Welcome to the 2020 UK. Heaven if you're a millionaire.

Ah thats where Johnson will have an issue. Financial Services require "passporting" rights to be able to operate within the EU, this is where I suspect the Uk Fishing Rights (you know the very thing that Fishermen voted Brexit to take back control of) will be bartered for access to the single market for Financial Services.

Whilst i realise most people including most Brexiteers don't give a **** about this, Financial Services and consulting services including legal etc form a huge part of Uk exports, if we can't operate in the EU then we are seriously ****ed and that that threatens Londons place as the world's financial centre and the jobs, income and taxes it generates - London underpins the UK economy, it could survive without he rest of the UK, the Uk would be much poorer without it.

Many firms in this sector have already set up branches or even moved HQ's to an EU country to avoid this. Why even Rees-Mogg moved the HQ of his hedge Fund to Dublin for that very reason!

Despite all the rhetoric coming out of this government, reality will dictate much underhand and disguising of the final outcome, so that the Brexiteers think they have what they wanted when in reality it will not be the case.

Witness that a "no deal" is now being termed an "Australian Deal" even though Australian does not have a trade deal with the EU!

[Geoff Parkstone]

Ah thats where Johnson will have an issue. Financial Services require "passporting" rights to be able to operate within the EU,

Almost all of the insurance companies that I deal with and report on have resolved the passporting rights issue with the help of a friendly insurance regulator in one of the remaining EU countries. Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Holland spring to mind. These jurisdictions do not simply allow nameplating, but demand a few local staff and a genuine micro office to be set up. A bit of pain in the arse but far from insurmountable.

I'm sure the same is true of the other major insurers, reinsurers and Lloyd's - I don't see any of them leaving London. There may be a slight bleeding of jobs, but nothing major. The banking and stock market sectors may be different, but insurance seems to cope easily enough: they are used to the sort of process involved and have all theoretical offices in Bermuda etc anyway, which hasnt impacted UK based employment.

[ramAnag]

I realise that its not your area of expertise, (but I don't fit any of your descriptions) I've said hedging against currency fluctuations, one doesn't hold ones savings purely in sterling, euros or dollars but switch it around in a strategy that takes account of current and forecast rates. For instance the US dollar is a good bet right now. That way one doesn't get caught out - its not foolproof of course but spreads the risk. One doesn't need millions to do this, but obviously a healthy enough savings/pension pot to make it worthwhile.

I don't need to bother about the property market , but if prices fall then all properties will fall so it balances itself out unless you paid too much for it.(though a tip, I'd be buying property in the Uk now, prices are relatively low and not likely to rise much within the next couple of years but the demand is there and once the dust of Brexit settles it will increase. Though for those wanting to get into the housing market a fall of around 20% would be a good thing and also perhaps change this peculiar UK obsession with property as an investment rather than somewhere to live - lets face you have to live somewhere and pay for it, why obsess about what its worth?

You seem to assume that Brexit will mean armageddon for the UK, in truth people like you and others wont notice much difference, the effects will be subtle and long term - certainly for those in the "left behind areas" will find out that the governments version of making things better for them will be requiring them to go out and get a job, most likely on not much more money than the jobs are available now, coupled with programmes to force them to get training .

Businesses of course are already feeling the effects and these will range from additional costs, problems recruiting workers (irrespective of what the government says the UK workforce will not suddenly have an appetite for the jobs currently done by Eu workers), inability to access key markets to be undercut by cheap imports from elsewhere in the world. Many have and will continue to simply relocate part or all of their business into an EU country to the regrettable detriment of the UK economy but hey thats what Brexiteers apparently want.

In reality I still suspect that there will be a lot of noise about the UK's its right to diverge from EU rules and regulations, but choose not to use that right much in practice, hammering out sector-specific arrangements beneath the cover of a headline deal where the government would opt for something suspiciously like the status quo. (For example manufacturing industries keen to keep selling inside the EU would need to stick to EU safety and regulatory standards even if some sought flexibility in the process of developing new products.).

Lets face it they adopted a withdrawal agreement that was even worse than the one May agreed which was against what BJ promised, why would anyone assume what he says now will actually happen?

Yep you’re right...certainly not my ‘area of expertise’.

I am surprised though...I thought Brexit meaning ‘Armageddon for the UK’ was what you’d been preaching for the last three years and one of the few things we’ve agreed on.

As for Swale the socialist currency speculator! Wow...that was a surprise. I wasn’t aware that I’d provided any ‘descriptions’ but you certainly don’t fit any stereotype.

[swaledale]

Almost all of the insurance companies that I deal with and report on have resolved the passporting rights issue with the help of a friendly insurance regulator in one of the remaining EU countries. Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Holland spring to mind. These jurisdictions do not simply allow nameplating, but demand a few local staff and a genuine micro office to be set up. A bit of pain in the arse but far from insurmountable.

I'm sure the same is true of the other major insurers, reinsurers and Lloyd's - I don't see any of them leaving London. There may be a slight bleeding of jobs, but nothing major. The banking and stock market sectors may be different, but insurance seems to cope easily enough: they are used to the sort of process involved and have all theoretical offices in Bermuda etc anyway, which hasnt impacted UK based employment.

The rules regarding operation within the single market are quite clear. I've been involved with many such transfers with financial services industries over the past three years, involving many thousands of jobs and transactions, firms are moving to Frankfurt or Paris which are desperate to take the business. There has already been a financial impact and unless a deal is brokered that suits more will follow.

For insurance it may be a different issue for banks it is not, same with legal services which is another big earner. You are also not taking into account the recruitment of staff, there are still question marks over the use of EU staff over here, what red tape will be involved (currently there is none under free movement) and the same for UK workers who relocate to the EU. Hence why considerable number of UK workers employed in these and other service sectors such as IT are obtaining citizenship of an EU country where they can.

Of course there are ways round the issue, but the important matter is that there are costs and no industry will carry extra costs if there is a way of avoiding them.

The impact already has been considerable, HSBC are in the process of moving large numbers of activities and staff into the EU and unless a simple quid pro quo is agreed with a trade deal then the impact will be significant, BUT I don't see that the government will not agree to a deal which protects a major part of the Uk economy.

For obvious reasons companies aren't necessarily admitting whats going on, but I can assure you it is.

[swaledale]

But don't take my word for it, here is an couple of paragraphs on the impact of brexit from a recent Insurance Journal.

Since the 2016 Brexit vote, the sector has reorganized to preserve a foothold in the EU, launching or beefing up subsidiaries and relocating staff and capital. Many banks and money managers are preparing for a further transfer of resources after a transition period ends in December.

Consultants EY said this week that around 7,000 financial services jobs will move from Britain to staff new EU hubs.

Failing to obtain equivalence could add risk-management, compliance, middle and back office roles to that figure, as well as trading and client-facing jobs, the sources said.

[MadAmster]

Not strictly Brexit but certainly a consequence thereof.......

Looking forward, I can't help but think that England, and Wales along with her, may well be utterly f*cked. The reason? Scotland. The Scots pay a lot into the Westminster coffers. They get between 55% and 60% of that back to do with as they will and they choose to have things like free tuition, free prescriptions etc. Things most English would like to have.

On top of what Scotland pays into Westminster, they also get hit with extra "debt". Crossrail, for instance, Cost billions and is a purely London affair having no effect on the Scots.... EXCEPT that they get loaded with a % of the costs as "debt". The same will happen if HS2 ever gets off the ground. Purely English infrastructure is partly paid for by the Scots who don't benefit from it. Scots MPs at Westminster no longer have a vote on things like HS2 as they are "English" projects but Scotland still gets to pay their share of the project.

Now they face losing what fishing rights they have left as a bargaining chip to help BoJo rescue something from the negotiations. What will to oil revenue? Will that also be a bargaining chip for BoJo?

Add to that the way BoJo and other Tories speak of Scotland, belittling them at every step, it should surprise noone that polls there continue to show a growing number of Scots who are pro independence. IMO, independence would be good for Scotland and very bad for England.

What if Scotland goes ahead and tries to organise a new independence referendum? It wouldn't surprise me to see BoJo send the troops in to prevent it because he knows he is b*ggered without the Scots "Union" membership fee each year.

[Trickytreesreds]

Not strictly Brexit but certainly a consequence thereof.......

Looking forward, I can't help but think that England, and Wales along with her, may well be utterly f*cked. The reason? Scotland. The Scots pay a lot into the Westminster coffers. They get between 55% and 60% of that back to do with as they will and they choose to have things like free tuition, free prescriptions etc. Things most English would like to have.

On top of what Scotland pays into Westminster, they also get hit with extra "debt". Crossrail, for instance, Cost billions and is a purely London affair having no effect on the Scots.... EXCEPT that they get loaded with a % of the costs as "debt". The same will happen if HS2 ever gets off the ground. Purely English infrastructure is partly paid for by the Scots who don't benefit from it. Scots MPs at Westminster no longer have a vote on things like HS2 as they are "English" projects but Scotland still gets to pay their share of the project.

Now they face losing what fishing rights they have left as a bargaining chip to help BoJo rescue something from the negotiations. What will to oil revenue? Will that also be a bargaining chip for BoJo?

Add to that the way BoJo and other Tories speak of Scotland, belittling them at every step, it should surprise noone that polls there continue to show a growing number of Scots who are pro independence. IMO, independence would be good for Scotland and very bad for England.

What if Scotland goes ahead and tries to organise a new independence referendum? It wouldn't surprise me to see BoJo send the troops in to prevent it because he knows he is b*ggered without the Scots "Union" membership fee each year.

Hiya Nicola how yer doing?

What absolute tosh that is.
Since oil crashed and Scotland lost its heady days of the oil boom. It has been in decline for years.
It is in the negative of GDP and where as the UK debt has fallen, Scotlands has stayed the same including oil proceeds. No mention I see that the oil is running out fast either.
You mention fishing rights? The UK wants them reclaimed, yet Sturgeon wants them returned to the EU? Are you having a laugh?
Your freebies you mention, are failing at every turn. Education/health perform terribly.

As for votes?? Since when does West minster have a say on anything in Holyrood?
Yet the Scots have their say in West Minster.

This post was a party political broadcast on behalf of the SNP lol.


Before you start, I don't really give a flying on what the Jocks want. If they want independence, then by all means have it.
Until they vote that way, then shut the **** up.

I have jock relatives in Aberdeenshire. Your pertrayal of Scottish feeling is a long way short of my experiances. Perhaps you have only been to Glasgow?

[MadAmster]

Until they vote that way, then shut the **** up.

Genuinely surprised by thatcomment from you..................... NOT !!

Fishing rights. If it's the Scots that negotiate a (partial) giveaway, they will do it for sometning of interest/value to the Scots as opposed to something for London.

Votes. Scottish MPs do NOT get a vote in the Commons on matters deemed to be purely English matters. Westminster is trying to block a 2nd referendum on independence in Scotland. BoJo is saying a flat NO! That despite the fact that, under international Law, Scotland soen't need his permission. The reason they are going through the legal processes they are is to prevent anybody being able to point at any wrongdoing from their side. The current court case is interesting. Westminster was sent all of the relevant documents and explanations and was asked for a response to the tens of pages sent. The answer was 2 sentences on a single A4 which did not say whether they agreed or disagreed with the points made and the backing evidence that had been provided. Basically treating the Scots with contempt.

The UK used to be the bastion of Law and Order. Always taking the higher ground. Now, it seems, the UK government is trawling the gutter like some banana dictatorship.

For your benefit TT, I am not a Scot, I am not aware of any Scottish relatives but I do have a lot of Scottish friends from various walks of life and I get my info from them.

[MadAmster]

Tricky....

https://www.businessforscotland.com/revealed-the-accounting-trick-that-hides-scotlands-wealth/?fbclid=IwAR2DG7bRbRrM4aXYxG9oIAF_GpC-NLK5LG6yPGZmttqInbwsLHTvMcj6nuk

[MadAmster]

Tricky....

https://www.businessforscotland.com/revealed-the-accounting-trick-that-hides-scotlands-wealth/?fbclid=IwAR2DG7bRbRrM4aXYxG9oIAF_GpC-NLK5LG6yPGZmttqInbwsLHTvMcj6nuk

The Indyref people sent court documents to Westminster, a lengthy letter including dozens of pages of back up proof of what they were saying. The reply? Two sentences saying ""We refer to your letter of 31 January 2020. The United Kingdom Government’s position is that it is outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament to legislate for and hold a referendum on Scottish independence."

Court it is then. BoJo will lose.

[swaledale]

Tricky....

https://www.businessforscotland.com/revealed-the-accounting-trick-that-hides-scotlands-wealth/?fbclid=IwAR2DG7bRbRrM4aXYxG9oIAF_GpC-NLK5LG6yPGZmttqInbwsLHTvMcj6nuk

The Indyref people sent court documents to Westminster, a lengthy letter including dozens of pages of back up proof of what they were saying. The reply? Two sentences saying ""We refer to your letter of 31 January 2020. The United Kingdom Government’s position is that it is outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament to legislate for and hold a referendum on Scottish independence."

Court it is then. BoJo will lose.

Its a claim that is often made by the SNP, but examination of the facts does not really do more than say that IF one assumes that the tax revenues from oil and gas over the last 32 years were all Scottish, then tax and spending were balanced, that it neither country subsidised the other.

The reason for this is that expenditure by Scotland has been higher and has therefore evened out the additional tax revenue that flowed back to England.

Going forward with the decline in the oil and gas industry, its hard to see where Scotland would generate its revenues to replace this source of income.

The case regarding the referendum is clear constitutionally, they do need Westminsters consent, which is the reason the SNP have gone quiet on a referendum soon, that plus the fact that there is no evidence that support from the electorate has increased in favour of a referendum since the last one.

I do have Scottish relatives and they don't favour independence and don't see the point of pursuing a referendum at this point.

[MadAmster]

Its a claim that is often made by the SNP, but examination of the facts does not really do more than say that IF one assumes that the tax revenues from oil and gas over the last 32 years were all Scottish, then tax and spending were balanced, that it neither country subsidised the other.

The reason for this is that expenditure by Scotland has been higher and has therefore evened out the additional tax revenue that flowed back to England.

Going forward with the decline in the oil and gas industry, its hard to see where Scotland would generate its revenues to replace this source of income.

The case regarding the referendum is clear constitutionally, they do need Westminsters consent, which is the reason the SNP have gone quiet on a referendum soon, that plus the fact that there is no evidence that support from the electorate has increased in favour of a referendum since the last one.

I do have Scottish relatives and they don't favour independence and don't see the point of pursuing a referendum at this point.

Fair point well made.

[Trickytreesreds]

Tricky....

https://www.businessforscotland.com/revealed-the-accounting-trick-that-hides-scotlands-wealth/?fbclid=IwAR2DG7bRbRrM4aXYxG9oIAF_GpC-NLK5LG6yPGZmttqInbwsLHTvMcj6nuk

The Indyref people sent court documents to Westminster, a lengthy letter including dozens of pages of back up proof of what they were saying. The reply? Two sentences saying ""We refer to your letter of 31 January 2020. The United Kingdom Government’s position is that it is outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament to legislate for and hold a referendum on Scottish independence."

Court it is then. BoJo will lose.

hey they can have one for me. If they want go, then hey go.

But at least tell the truth.
The SNP is spouting more crap than Geobbels ever managed.
Here read this, If that isn't delusional I don't know what is. The SNP would take Scotland back to the stone age as long as independence was won.
Not that I care anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/21/scotland-2018-deficit-higher-than-uk-as-a-whole-last-year

[Trickytreesreds]

Trouble in paradise?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/eu-leaders-at-odds-over-filling-brexit-shortfall?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1paJsRExTjX7XOKw-VapbHLFWES_FKSHci2cJ_ORdlgUh38KDdWalYkzM

[MadAmster]

Trouble in paradise?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...Uh38KDdWalYkzM

Not surprised Rutte is against paying €2Bn more. The Dutch are among the most heavily taxed of nations anyway and any extra EU contribution would have to come via taxes or more austerity measures at a time when we are leaving austerity behind us. The 3 highest taxed (Austria, Denmark and Sweden) plus the 6th placed Dutch are the ones fighting this. Hardly a surprise is it?

Or, is it? The Dutch are well known for rubber stamping EU agenda items. A policy that leads to them getting more than their fair share of the top EU jobs. This time it's a stiff "nee" from Rutte et al. The next General Election here is March 2021, just a year away. Anything EU related that would lead to higher taxes would be a bad move for the 4 parties in the coalition. Even if the other 3 give way, Rutte will dig his heels in so as not to commit Hara Kiri in next year's polls. The election might even be brought forward as Dutch coalitions have a tendency to fall apart in the last year as the parties involved gear up their own plans for the future and they often go against the coalition line.

There will be no Dutch capitulation........... until after the election