OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Trickytreesreds]

Perhaps you can now tell us what we have actually achieved All the things you say about scare stories of job losses and house prices are just around the corner We are still in honeymoon in the translation period As for Soubrey and her wish for frictionless trade you obviously have never tried running a small business The changes being forced on businesses through the newly to be implementation are a mine field of money sucking registration

You're right MR, how did the world ever cope without the EU?
Of course this red tape works both ways, I suppose. 3: 1 ratio and all that.
Closed market is the EU. A protectionist racket. That's why their biggest fear has happened. A larger trading country on its doorstep, that could be a Singapore in its back yard. Never mind eh.

[AdiSalisbury]

Sounds promising, can't be too bad if an England under 21 international. I hope Mel supports Cocu, can't do it only with home grown youngsters.

[swaledale]

You're right MR, how did the world ever cope without the EU?
Of course this red tape works both ways, I suppose. 3: 1 ratio and all that.
Closed market is the EU. A protectionist racket. That's why their biggest fear has happened. A larger trading country on its doorstep, that could be a Singapore in its back yard. Never mind eh.

**** me, you'd be the last person who would enjoy living under an authoritarian regime like Singapore! You'd be moaning about the regulations, the infringement of civil liberties and the lack of democracy. Plus you do realise that how Singapore operates? With a labour force of unrecognised immigrant workers who are basically slaves on piss poor wages and with no rights at all!


Quite how a low tax, low regulation economy is going to be good news for the "average" working person is beyond me, but hey no doubt those Oxbridge educated elites will throw you the odd bone now and then to keep the masses happy!

[swaledale]

I don't know of any Brexit voter who didn't expect a down turn in the economy and job losses.
I still believe the same today, the short term loss will be put right over time.
I remember Soubry screaming screaming for frictionless trade or else.
Up to yet, there is nothing to say that won't be the case. Yet before the referendum, it WAS said time and again, as was your holiday to Europe will be a nightmare? Project fear was very real in many forms. Remember, the emergency tax/900 000 immediate job losses, rising to 3 million in a year/house prices falling through the floor? I do.

If you go to the dentist with tooth ache, do you expect a painless experience or not, knowing that it has to be done?
With corona bouncing around, I don't understand how anyone, thinks staying in the EU benefits us?
We have just escaped a huge wallet raid, that countries like Ireland are now going to have to pay.

But my opinion is only in the 52% , so doesn't count.

You don't know many Brexit voters then! As for escaping a huge wallet raid, are you really that dim, that you don't realise the loss in economic activity will exceed such payments? So in your world "saving" say £350 million (just to pluck a figure out of the ether!) is good and losing say £400 million a year due to a no deal is also good? Mm mathematics clearly isn't your strong point!

Or to put another way, lets say we lose 2.5% in GDP averaged annually for say 5 years? Quite how long do you think it will take before we recover that just to get to where we are economically before leaving the EU.

Lets be generous and say it takes 5 years, so in your world a decade of economic stagnation is worth the "illusion of regaining sovereignty"? And lets be clear we hadn't actually lost any sovereignty, that was just another big fat lie peddled by Vote Leave. Although I do have to admit that Rees-Mogg (you know the ardent Brexiteer who moved the HQ of his hedge fund to Dublin so it could still trade in the EU!) did say there could be at least a decade of economic stagnation after Brexit!

I know I've plucked figures out of the air, but you seem to be happy when Vote leave did that so I'm guessing you will be OK when i do!

Jeez, those rich Oxbridge educated elites dreaming of making a fast buck in a low wage low regulation economy must be rubbing their hands with glee when they have got dimwits like yo lapping it up!

But then a lot of "good" Germans voted for Hitler I guess, but denied it when things went slightly different from how they thought it would!

[swaledale]

Perhaps you can now tell us what we have actually achieved All the things you say about scare stories of job losses and house prices are just around the corner We are still in honeymoon in the translation period As for Soubrey and her wish for frictionless trade you obviously have never tried running a small business The changes being forced on businesses through the newly to be implementation are a mine field of money sucking registration

Mista, he won't be able to say what advantages Brexit will secure for the UK. I've not met a Brexiteer who could and I've met ones far more intelligent than TTR!

[swaledale]

Swale can'y help you rA, at best its anecdotes, and it is a bit of a feature that you seem to lap up Swale's anecdotes and ignore others, including often mine, which give a different viewpoint. There will be winners and losers in Brexit (Swale appears to be a winner, so on balance amongst us Brexit looks like a good thing), there will be winners and losers in Covid, what everyone SHOULD be doing is 'their bit' which unfortunately is a forlorn hope

At best its anecdotes? Mm your a fine one to talk, because most of your posts relate to a very narrow perspective and ignore the wider reality! But I do understand that its either beyond a lot peoples ability to do that or perhaps they are just too lazy to consider complicated issues?

Of course if you have the capacity there is plenty of information out there which actually shows the real situation and it can be verified by a little judicious investigation. I'd say my contacts and experience are a wee bit wider than yours , yet even so I don't rely upon just them, which was why I included the public quote of Rees-Mogg, about the decade of economic stagnation following Brexit!

Hey Ho! I'm really not bothered if you take any notice or not of what I post, if your happy in your little bubble why should I give a ****?

[swaledale]

Ah but that would mean dealing in facts, not generalisations that can't be proved or disproved.....

In my little part of the city, in maritime insurance, I am not aware of a single lost job due to brexit even when various companies have reorganised to accommodate the cessation of passporting.

Covid - Well that may be different longer term, but hey, that can now be blamed on Brexit by those who pedal that bike, and vica versa by those that don't.

Not disputing that there may be job losses from Brexit elsewhere: just observing that I haven't seen any in my little microcosm of the service sector.

Perhaps there are job losses in Burnley or Fulham?

Here are the key stats as at Jan 2020

Total Jobs Lost: 436,296
Total Annual Wages Lost*: £12,511,660,392
Reduction in Annual Income Tax & National Insurance Receipts**: £3,747,289,625.52

Job Losses By Region

Scotland: 30,223
Midlands: 26,318
North East: 22,324
London: 22,245
Wales 14,265
South West: 13,959
North West: 9,144
South East: 5,095
East of England: 5,027
Northern Ireland: 2,555
Gibraltar: 1,000
Southern England: 870
No specific region: 283,729

10 Worst Hit Cities & Towns

Glasgow: 24,612
London: 22,245
Wylfa Newydd: 9,350
S****horpe: 6077
Swindon: 4,951
Manchester: 4,912
Yorkshire: 4,362
Bridgend: 4,010
Derby: 4,000
Hull: 3287


All pre Covid-19 at that stage.

My personal experience? I've been involved in 19 different companies across the financial, insurance, distribution, aerospace and technology sectors who have moved all or part of their operations to an EU country.

I'd estimate the number of actual jobs relocated as around 5,000, add on loss of tax revenue, loss of expenditure by those employees and that impacts on a wider range of people as well as the country. Plus those jobs won't be available or being created in the UK by those companies in the future.

Now my experience is one person and theres a hell of a lot more than that happening.

On top of that we have Covid-19 which will exacerbate the situation and on the one hand will muddy the waters and provide a convenient scapegoat for the Brexiteers when the final results are known.

AS for there being winners and losers, yeah I love people being so sanguine about that when they aren't personally affected!

[Geoff Parkstone]

Interesting - and these figures solely relate to job losses due to Brexit, ot just job losses in an undefined period, including perhaps the impact of technology etc?

5000 due to relocation may be reasonable as insurance and financial services deal with passporting issues, but my experience points to that simply creating jobs in eu countries, not switching jobs from uk: but I wouldn't argue with the 5k too much. Unless you are one of those 5k, it's only a scratch on a 35m (??) workforce.

It's clear why Scotland wanted to stay in!

[Trickytreesreds]

I do love how no one covers the jobs that have been lost out of this country, BECAUSE we were in the EU.
The red tape and closed markets, were huge in decimating the steel/aluminium industries. They also prevented the government from stepping in to save them, as EU rules don't want that.
The EU in its wisdom of expansion, of lesser developed countries, has been wonderful for us with it's cheap labour.
It has often provided subsidised loans and grants to businesses to set up elsewhere in the EU. The UK has seen a spate of factory closures balanced by new and expanded facilities in poorer EU countries. The UK lost van production to Turkey, car capacity to Slovakia, chocolate to Poland, domestic appliances to the Netherlands and the Czech Republic and metal containers to Poland amongst others in recent years. In various cases there was an EU grant or loan involved in the new capacity.

Of course that cheap labour has travelled this way as well and assisted in driving down wages for us lesser mortals.
Ironically fuelling the rich get richer and poor get poorer, not to mention the black labour market.
But I'm not worthy of an opinion in the 52% club.

[Andy_Faber]

if your happy in your little bubble why should I give a ****?

No you shouldn't, and I probably spend a lot of time mooching round in a bubble a lot like yours, reasonably impervious to, or even benefiting from, the impact of Brexit and even Covid (providing I don't catch it). But I'm lucky (in a way) to spend time in a number of other bubbles, the ones which foretold that Brexit would happen and Trump would happen, and any anecdotes I give tend to be direct experiences outside my bubble. I think they are enlightening, maybe others do, you obviously don't.

[mistaram]

You're right MR, how did the world ever cope without the EU?
Of course this red tape works both ways, I suppose. 3: 1 ratio and all that.
Closed market is the EU. A protectionist racket. That's why their biggest fear has happened. A larger trading country on its doorstep, that could be a Singapore in its back yard. Never mind eh.

I will take that as you can't tell me then Sure Liz Truss will get us some great deals I know the CBI have great faith in her not

[mistaram]

No you shouldn't, and I probably spend a lot of time mooching round in a bubble a lot like yours, reasonably impervious to, or even benefiting from, the impact of Brexit and even Covid (providing I don't catch it). But I'm lucky (in a way) to spend time in a number of other bubbles, the ones which foretold that Brexit would happen and Trump would happen, and any anecdotes I give tend to be direct experiences outside my bubble. I think they are enlightening, maybe others do, you obviously don't.

l

That's fine Andy but I think it's better to be in a safe bubble than one that is about to pop 😊

[Geoff Parkstone]

I will take that as you can't tell me then Sure Liz Truss will get us some great deals I know the CBI have great faith in her not

Liz Truss, she who eats shoots and leaves?

[swaledale]

I do love how no one covers the jobs that have been lost out of this country, BECAUSE we were in the EU.
The red tape and closed markets, were huge in decimating the steel/aluminium industries. They also prevented the government from stepping in to save them, as EU rules don't want that.
The EU in its wisdom of expansion, of lesser developed countries, has been wonderful for us with it's cheap labour.
It has often provided subsidised loans and grants to businesses to set up elsewhere in the EU. The UK has seen a spate of factory closures balanced by new and expanded facilities in poorer EU countries. The UK lost van production to Turkey, car capacity to Slovakia, chocolate to Poland, domestic appliances to the Netherlands and the Czech Republic and metal containers to Poland amongst others in recent years. In various cases there was an EU grant or loan involved in the new capacity.

Of course that cheap labour has travelled this way as well and assisted in driving down wages for us lesser mortals.
Ironically fuelling the rich get richer and poor get poorer, not to mention the black labour market.
But I'm not worthy of an opinion in the 52% club.

Your opinion is worthless because its not based on facts or anything but blind prejudice.

I can't be arsed to refute everything you say life is too short, but most on here are bright enough to know most of what you post is utter *******s, and you've been called out many times.

I'd just question how the EU was responsible for outsourcing production to China, Singapore, Taiwan, Bangledesh, Turkey etc. etc. which firms have been doing for eons!

On wages :

The Independent Migration Advisory Committee found there was some evidence that immigration depressed the wages of lower-skilled workers while inflating those of higher-skilled workers, but added that the impact was generally small.

When it talks about a small impact, it looked at the period from 1993 to 2017, over which time average earnings for the lowest-paid rose by 55%. Using economic modelling, they estimated that - if there hadn't been European migration into the UK - that rise would have been around 5% higher.

It added that more research was needed to find out if there had been any impact on self-employed workers.

The MAC concluded that other factors had a greater impact on wages, with all workers having done badly since the financial crisis. Real wages are still struggling to rise above where they were in 2008, but lower-skilled workers have done marginally better due to the minimum wage rising faster than average earnings.

[swaledale]

Interesting - and these figures solely relate to job losses due to Brexit, ot just job losses in an undefined period, including perhaps the impact of technology etc?

5000 due to relocation may be reasonable as insurance and financial services deal with passporting issues, but my experience points to that simply creating jobs in eu countries, not switching jobs from uk: but I wouldn't argue with the 5k too much. Unless you are one of those 5k, it's only a scratch on a 35m (??) workforce.

It's clear why Scotland wanted to stay in!

Yes these losses are nothing to do with technology etc. and refer to the period since we voted to leave.

The 5k is the jobs that i directly have seen relocated not the total! These are jobs that were in the Uk and are now in the EU so they are lost not additional jobs created. in the EU.

The loss of these jobs also has a knock on, with other jobs being lost as UK suppliers and service providers are no longer used, that tends to be in the order of 2 job losses for each "principle job" lost.

Its largely academic as the impact Covid-19 will ensure that it will be very difficult to identify the total economic impact of Brexit. Though that may be exacerbated in the event we don't strike a trade deal. Something even i think the current numpty's will not risk - if the adoption of a withdrawal agreement which was basically May's original deal spun as something different is anything to go by.