O/T:- ⚠️Impressed with the leadership [The UK Party Politics Thread]

[Magpies1959]

Funny how you could get about 4-1 with the bookies then for a Leave victory.

[i961pie]

Brexit polling was pretty good. It was very close and that means margins of error can start swinging the result. But most polls in the run up to the referendum showed Leave would win.

I didn't see any poles that thought leave would win or any bookmaker either?

[Elite_Pie]

I didn't see any poles that thought leave would win or any bookmaker either?

Why should Poles know about polls any more than the rest?

There were definitely several polls showing the leave campaign ahead before the vote, because they made me back leave with the bookies.

[the_anticlough]

Don’t think RS or KS would ever have the balls to try bring in PR

Starmer has already rejected it, despite it being voted for at the Labour Party conference....so at least he's consistent in being anti-democratic, rejecting party votes and preferring disproportional representation (let's call that DR)

[BanjoPie]

Why should Poles know about polls any more than the rest?

There were definitely several polls showing the leave campaign ahead before the vote, because they made me back leave with the bookies.

Are talking international politics now?

[BigFatPie]

Thank goodness there’s this thing called the internet which we can use to settle trivial points of disagreement. Unless Wikipedia is considered too ‘woke’.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

[Elite_Pie]

At least we will benefit from the levelling down cash after the cancellation of HS2:

A tram line that opened eight years ago has been included in a list of transport projects due to be funded by the cancellation of HS2's eastern leg. The government's Network North policy paper states that Nottingham's tram network could be extended to Clifton South. However a line has served that location since 2015.

So a government policy paper doesn't know that this happened 8 years ago.

I'm sure they will claim it as a success that was delivered early!

[drillerpie]

Thank goodness there’s this thing called the internet which we can use to settle trivial points of disagreement. Unless Wikipedia is considered too ‘woke’.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum

The point from the Wiki page about phone polling not being accurate reminds me of one I brought up a few years ago after having watched an interview with one of the few pollsters to predict Trump's win in 2016.

I can't remember the exact methodology he used but he did say something like that by calling people over the phone you're already biased towards people who don't have much to do during the day/early evening or have office jobs where they can talk for a bit.

[Elite_Pie]

The point from the Wiki page about phone polling not being accurate reminds me of one I brought up a few years ago after having watched an interview with one of the few pollsters to predict Trump's win in 2016.

I can't remember the exact methodology he used but he did say something like that by calling people over the phone you're already biased towards people who don't have much to do during the day/early evening or have office jobs where they can talk for a bit.

Regardless of any perceived poll bias, in this case some have said they never saw a pre-Brexit poll that favoured leave. There were several, and that's what made me put money on vote leave even though I voted remain. Looking at BFP's link, between 20th May and 16th June there were 30 polls. Of those 30, 9 favoured remain, 18 favoured leave, and 3 were equal. That was probably when I put my bet on.

But some never saw a poll that was in favour of leave!

[OchPie]

But some never saw a poll that was in favour of leave!

To be fair, there was an overriding sentiment in the country that Remain would win. Indeed I think that helped persuade some people to vote Leave as a protest.

The polls certainly didn't seem to panic the Remain campaign into taking things seriously and making a proper positive case for being in.

[Magpies1959]

I agree with your first sentence OchPie. I think it would have been difficult for Remain to make a positive case for staying in the EU, as how would things all of a sudden become better by staying put. They had to campaign on the supposed negatives of leaving, which should have made it a shoe in for Remain, luckily the majority saw through project fear. I also think a major factor for people voting Leave was the leaflet Cameron sent out to every household at massive cost, with a very biased Remain feel to it. It certainly helped me, make my mind up.

[Elite_Pie]

I agree with your first sentence OchPie. I think it would have been difficult for Remain to make a positive case for staying in the EU, as how would things all of a sudden become better by staying put.

It's blatantly obvious that things wouldn't suddenly become better by remaining.

It's also blatantly obvious things became worse after leaving.

[magpie_mania]

I agree with your first sentence OchPie. I think it would have been difficult for Remain to make a positive case for staying in the EU, as how would things all of a sudden become better by staying put. They had to campaign on the supposed negatives of leaving, which should have made it a shoe in for Remain, luckily the majority saw through project fear. I also think a major factor for people voting Leave was the leaflet Cameron sent out to every household at massive cost, with a very biased Remain feel to it. It certainly helped me, make my mind up.

And now more and more are seeing through the lies of many in the leave campaign.

If the vote took place in 2016, but with the benefit of seeing how it would turn out, would remain have won?

[forwardmagpie]

And now more and more are seeing through the lies of many in the leave campaign.

If the vote took place in 2016, but with the benefit of seeing how it would turn out, would remain have won?

Maybe I’m in the minority as all the other leave voters have seen the light but I would still vote leave.

[OP67]

a major factor for people voting Leave was the leaflet Cameron sent out to every household at massive cost, with a very biased Remain feel to it. It certainly helped me, make my mind up.

Ahhhhhhh I'll never forget that, the leaflet that shouldn't have been paid for legally by tax payers money!! Big lettering, smiley faces on the Remain page. Red for DANGER and loads of text for the Leave side The government tried everything to get people to vote remain yet people still voted leave.