O/T:- Trump Presidency 2.0 [hic sunt dracones]

[Mud Pie]

I think if the deal had been that vague, they wouldn't even have got Zelenskyy (congratulations on right spelling!) as far as the Oval Office. Yes he's in a bad position, but whatever was in those papers must have been credible enough to get him to sit in the room and believe it was worth his while.

Whatever people make of him, I think Trump serves Trump, and if Trump thinks he can manipulate Europe and the Ukraine into doing what he wants by playing the pro-Putin card then he'll use it for as long as it suits him. Likewise, if at some point in the future it suits him to throw Putin under the bus because somebody else has something better to offer in return, I think he would do that too.

I don't doubt that Putin wanted Trump in the White House rather than Biden, because he knew Trump would at least negotiate to him and that the American President (whoever it is) effectively decides who is a 'pariah state' and who isn't, but if Putin at any point does something to undermine Trump's interests I've got no doubt Trump would drop him like a bad habit and call him a "bad person"... until he did something Trump liked again.

There is a critique of Trump that I think is correct, whatever political angle it comes from. He's motivated by money, power and ego and is as cynical as they come. He will work with anyone and likewise discard anyone if it suits him, even swapping back and forth without any embarrassment - that was yesterday, this is now. He's got that ruthless streak, and he's no fool. He might not speak or act like a politician is supposed to, but he can see opportunity and identify weakness like a shark smells blood.

It's no coincidence he used to do a lot of deal making with boxing promoters and a certain wrestling promoter who had the same mindset: if you were useful to their business at a given time then they were your best friend, but if you were not useful or a spent force you were cast off or even regarded as the enemy. They're not loyal, but they will drop any grudge they have against someone if doing business with them again makes sense.

I can quite see why these individuals are not regarded as "nice" people, because they're really not, but it is said nice guys come last. If ever there was a character-type designed to survive if not thrive in the psychopathic game that is international politics, this is it. That's why so many seem to end up there.

There's certainly never any shortage of theories and rumours. I thought Putin was supposed to have died of cancer or Parkinsons by now. The reality is that the trusted western media were clearly peddling BS, or at least being over-optimistic on the timescale.

"Trump serves Trump" and "nice guys come last" sounds like a terrible rationale for the leader of the most militarily and economically powerful leader on the planet to me, never mind for the patriarch of US society.

[andy6025]

Saw this take of the meeting on twitter and I agree with most of it:

I watched the entire press conference with Zelensky. There was 40 minutes of discussion up to the argument. Most people saw at most the last ten minutes. The whole video gives the proper context.

When I first watched the argument without the proper context, I thought it was possible that Trump and Vance ambushed Zelensky or were even trying to humiliate him. That's not what happened.

You had 40 minutes of calm conversation. Vance made a point that didn't attack Zelensky and wasn't even addressed to him, and Zelensky clearly started the argument.

In the first 40 minutes, Zelensky kept trying to go beyond what was negotiated in the deal. When Trump was asked a question, it was always "we'll see." Zelensky made blanket assertions that there would be no negotiating with Putin, and that Russia would pay for the war. When Trump said that it was a tragedy that people on both sides were dying, Zelensky interjected that the Russians were the invaders.

For his part, Trump made clear that the US would continue delivering military aid. All Zelensky had to do was remain calm for a few more minutes and they would've signed a deal.

The argument started when Trump pointed out that it would be hard to make a deal if you talk about Putin the way Zelensky does. Vance interjects to make the reasonable point that Biden called Putin names and that didn't get us anywhere.

The Zelensky/Trump dynamic was calm and stable. It was when Vance spoke that Zelensky started to interrogate him. Throughout the press conference to that point, everyone was making their arguments directly to the audience. Zelensky decided to challenge Vance and ask him hostile questions. He went back to his point that Putin never sticks to ceasefires, once again implying that negotiations are pointless. Why on earth would you do this? Then came the fight we all saw.

Zelensky was minutes away from being home free, and he would have had the deal and new commitments from the Trump administration. The point Vance made was directed against Biden and the media, taking them to task for speaking in moralistic terms. This offended Zelensky, and that began the argument.

I've been a fan of Zelensky up to this point, but this showed so much incompetence, if not emotional instability, that I don't see how he recovers from this. The relationship with the administration is broken. Ukraine should probably go with new leadership at this point.

[Big Bob]

Trump is like a school yard bully. Same as the rest of his cronies. Absolute lunatic

[slack_pie]

It certainly looked like Trump and Vance jumped at the opportunity to humiliate him in front of the world. I've never seen anything like it. Towards the end, it really felt like they'd overplayed the act with the whole "you don't get to dictate how we'll feel" thing. Bizarre, but ultimately it's all political theatre.

[Old_pie]

Saw this take of the meeting on twitter and I agree with most of it:

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I've been a fan of Zelensky up to this point, but this showed so much incompetence, if not emotional instability, that I don't see how he recovers from this. The relationship with the administration is broken. Ukraine should probably go with new leadership at this point.

Oh, I think most of us had the view you were a fan of Putin

Three years of what Zelensky has suffered and the suffering he has seen has taken its toll. Hearing Trump echo Putin's words from time to time must have put the fear of god in him. Trump thinks he holds all the cards, probably true. The American public seems to be hearing what they want. I dread to think of the outcome of any discussion between the King and Trump on this issue, but some past royalty would have Trump in Tower (not the Trump Tower).

[maddogslater]

Good post Andy, Zelensky threw himself under the bus there, bizarre 😳

[drillerpie]

It certainly looked like Trump and Vance jumped at the opportunity to humiliate him in front of the world. I've never seen anything like it. Towards the end, it really felt like they'd overplayed the act with the whole "you don't get to dictate how we'll feel" thing. Bizarre, but ultimately it's all political theatre.

Yeah, it was more Joe Pesci telling the kid bartending to dance than serious discussion between allies. I think Vance particularly was eager to score MAGA points in front of the president and on world TV. Trump and Zelensky were getting on quite well before Vance intervened, even directly disagreeing with a bit of bonhomie about how much Europe had done.

Trump kept wanting to repeat how this was all Biden's fault, Zelensky wanted to repeat how they needed security guarantees, but it was going OK. Weird, but OK. Once Vance intervened the situation degenerated, there was no coming back.

A few things I would point out:

They basically wanted Zelenksy to sign away mineral rights on the vague promise that if there are American workers in Ukraine nothing bad can happen. Basically signing his country's mineral wealth away to a guy who is famous for screwing over the small guy (and proud of it) while they tell you not to sweat the details. On top of this, Ukraine already gave its nukes away after the fall of the USSR in return for security assurances which didn't materialise. Zelensky not being relaxed about this seems perfectly reasonable to me.

They say he has to sign the mineral deal so Trump can sell the idea to the US public. There was tremendous bipartisan support for Ukraine until MAGA started recycling Russian propaganda to attack Ukraine and undermine support, so who is to blame for that?

Before the whole thing went sideways, and with all the world's media in attendance and very serious subject matter and questions waiting to be asked, Marjorie Taylor Greene's boyfriend (yes, really) was given two questions: one softball to Trump ("very nice question Brian"), and one to Zelensky about him disrespecting the Oval Office by not wearing a suit, which put a big grin on Vance's face. Forget that Elon Musk was in there last week in a t-shirt and baseball cap, and Zelensky dealt with it well, but that was a stitch up that was meant to set the tone for Zelensky losing his cool. They say they can't take sides as they need to be impartial (a debatable position but ok fair enough), yet they constantly disrespect Zelensky and ask him for concessions, while they only praise Putin and give him everything.

They wanted him to be performatively thankful for them 'saving Ukraine from destruction' when in front of him were Marco Rubio who is pro Ukraine but pretends not to be to please daddy, JD Vance who has said on record that he really doesn't care what happens to Ukraine, and Trump who held up the last weapons package for 6 months directly causing countless Ukrainians to lose their lives and Ukraine to lose territory. Not only this but they then attack him for needing to recruit. Maybe if they didn't have to cope for 6 months at a 10-1 firepower disadvantage they would have more soldiers?

I said a while ago that I was sceptical but open minded about Trump. I'm still trying to focus on results and not the noise, but with every sieg-heil and every pro-Russian move, it's getting harder. If it stays as theatre that's fine, but he is also petty and vindictive, and I imagine all sensitive Ukrainian intelligence will be shared with the US. If I were Zelensky, I really wouldn't want to be relying on Trump's temperament and Tulsi Gabbard's judgement being the only things between me and a Russian death squad.

[jackal2]

Saw this take of the meeting on twitter and I agree with most of it:

I watched the entire press conference with Zelensky. There was 40 minutes of discussion up to the argument. Most people saw at most the last ten minutes. The whole video gives the proper context.

When I first watched the argument without the proper context, I thought it was possible that Trump and Vance ambushed Zelensky or were even trying to humiliate him. That's not what happened.

You had 40 minutes of calm conversation. Vance made a point that didn't attack Zelensky and wasn't even addressed to him, and Zelensky clearly started the argument.

In the first 40 minutes, Zelensky kept trying to go beyond what was negotiated in the deal. When Trump was asked a question, it was always "we'll see." Zelensky made blanket assertions that there would be no negotiating with Putin, and that Russia would pay for the war. When Trump said that it was a tragedy that people on both sides were dying, Zelensky interjected that the Russians were the invaders.

For his part, Trump made clear that the US would continue delivering military aid. All Zelensky had to do was remain calm for a few more minutes and they would've signed a deal.

The argument started when Trump pointed out that it would be hard to make a deal if you talk about Putin the way Zelensky does. Vance interjects to make the reasonable point that Biden called Putin names and that didn't get us anywhere.

The Zelensky/Trump dynamic was calm and stable. It was when Vance spoke that Zelensky started to interrogate him. Throughout the press conference to that point, everyone was making their arguments directly to the audience. Zelensky decided to challenge Vance and ask him hostile questions. He went back to his point that Putin never sticks to ceasefires, once again implying that negotiations are pointless. Why on earth would you do this? Then came the fight we all saw.

Zelensky was minutes away from being home free, and he would have had the deal and new commitments from the Trump administration. The point Vance made was directed against Biden and the media, taking them to task for speaking in moralistic terms. This offended Zelensky, and that began the argument.

I don't know who posted that on Twitter, but it's more or less the same as my interpretation in post 788, again from watching the whole meeting rather than the carefully edited part that people were fed by much of the media.

Trump overnight has used the words "Zelenskyy overplayed his hand", and I think that's genuinely how Trump sees it. Zelenskyy was playing the hand absolutely fine until about 35 minutes into the meeting, but then he challenged Vance directly, Vance reacted, and it all went west (or perhaps east) from there.

I've been a fan of Zelensky up to this point, but this showed so much incompetence, if not emotional instability, that I don't see how he recovers from this. The relationship with the administration is broken. Ukraine should probably go with new leadership at this point.

I'm a bit more optimistic, for the reasons I've stated in post 794. Zelenskyy was already making conciliatory noises on Fox News last night, and Trump still has something to gain from this deal if it gets resurrected, so don't be surprised if Trump doesn't hold as much of a long-lasting grudge as people might expect. Vance might actually be the more difficult one to walk back. Trump lives more in the moment: if there's still business to be done and a deal to be made on acceptable terms, and if Zelenskyy stops "overplaying his hand" as Trump sees it, then Trump will conveniently forget yesterday's events, much like he appeared to "forget" calling Zelenskyy a dictator. Trump's all about what you can do for him TODAY.

That said, Trump doesn't need this deal at all costs. If Zelenskyy doesn't adopt a grateful (rather than challenging) posture, then Trump could well employ the "I've done my best" line and leave Ukraine to its fate, as BFP suggests in post 793. Oddly, although Trump holds all the power, it's probably Zelenskyy's words and actions in the coming days that will most influence where this is heading.

[Bohinen]

I think if the deal had been that vague, they wouldn't even have got Zelenskyy (congratulations on right spelling!) as far as the Oval Office.

So we've all been spelling it the wrong way? The reality is, the actual name is written in a different alphabet and you are just talking about the romanised version, and either Zelensky or Zelenskyy is acceptable. From Wikipedia ...

Its Russian spelling Зеленский is romanized Zelenski, Zelenskii, Zelenskiy, or Zelensky, and originates from the toponym Zelyonoe (Зелёное), meaning 'green'.[1] Its feminine counterpart is Зеленская (Zelenskaya or Zelenskaia).

Its Ukrainian spelling Зеленський is romanized Zelenskyi, Zelensky, Zelenskiy, or Zelenskyy, and originates from the toponym Zelene (Зелене), meaning 'green'.[1] Its feminine counterpart is Зеленська (Zelenska).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelensky_(surname)

[jackal2]

So we've all been spelling it the wrong way? The reality is, the actual name is written in a different alphabet and you are just talking about the romanised version, and either Zelensky or Zelenskyy is acceptable. From Wikipedia ...

Its Russian spelling Зеленский is romanized Zelenski, Zelenskii, Zelenskiy, or Zelensky, and originates from the toponym Zelyonoe (Зелёное), meaning 'green'.[1] Its feminine counterpart is Зеленская (Zelenskaya or Zelenskaia).

Its Ukrainian spelling Зеленський is romanized Zelenskyi, Zelensky, Zelenskiy, or Zelenskyy, and originates from the toponym Zelene (Зелене), meaning 'green'.[1] Its feminine counterpart is Зеленська (Zelenska).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelensky_(surname)

I was congratulating BFP - genuinely - on doing his research and spelling the name the Ukrainian way with the extra 'y', and I then adopted the spelling he was using. In previous posts I'd been using the other spelling.

[forwardmagpie]

It's pretty clear what the new rules are under Trump - kiss my arse and I'll be your friend, refuse to kiss my arse and I'm your enemy. Shamefully, the UK government and the UK monarchy have decided to kiss his arse. Trump is the typical school bully, I've got more money than you so do as I say or I'll crush you. A united Europe might be the only thing big enough to stand up to his bullying, but 52% of us decided we didn't want to be part of a united Europe. I always thought Brexit was a really bad idea, but I never thought it would get this bad.

Congratulations Elite it must be difficult to find posts that you can add your anti Brexit views to.

Trump is a bully and we need to stand up to him but if you think the failed EU project is the right vehicle for that then we must disagree.

[Elite_Pie]

Congratulations Elite it must be difficult to find posts that you can add your anti Brexit views to.

It's caused so many problems that it's actually quite easy.

[forwardmagpie]

It's caused so many problems that it's actually quite easy.

But you haven?t answered why the EU will be a solution against Trump?

[Jampie]

But you haven?t answered why the EU will be a solution against Trump?

Well, in trade negotiations, EU + UK is almost the same GDP as the US. That's a lot of bargaining power.

The UK on its own is about 12% the US's size as a market. That's little to no bargaining power.

[Jampie]

I think hopes that Trump has a different agenda to Putin are admirable but naive. I've never seen any evidence of this.

Yeah, in dealings with literally every other entity on earth, Trump is all about himself. Not so with Putin. I will be genuinely surprised and delighted if they ever have a falling out. Trump behaves consistently as though he is compromised. I don't know whether he is or not, but I have to say "yeah, probably" based solely on his behaviour.