OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

Thank God you two have kissed and made up and we can return to the matter in hand. My take is that Abbott should be gagged forthwith. She's a political liability and Corbyn's response yesterday was almost as inadequate. Having said that and back completely on the topic of this now ten month old thread...isn't the talk of how fractious Mrs. May's dinner debate appeared to be and the fact that Brexit might cost us as much as €100 billion () of rather more importance? Is this really - along with all the other things that have emerged since last June - what those who voted for Brexit actually wanted?

[Andy_Faber]

Thank God you two have kissed and made up and we can return to the matter in hand. My take is that Abbott should be gagged forthwith. She's a political liability and Corbyn's response yesterday was almost as inadequate. Having said that and back completely on the topic of this now ten month old thread...isn't the talk of how fractious Mrs. May's dinner debate appeared to be and the fact that Brexit might cost us as much as €100 billion () of rather more importance? Is this really - along with all the other things that have emerged since last June - what those who voted for Brexit actually wanted?

You're letting the spin get to you R, talk's cheap, as is Brussells gossip and pro-EU newspaper pap. If it's anywhere near £100m (sorry but bugger referring to it in Euros) I'll be mad as Hell, I want and trust my countrymen to go into commercial battle and come out the winners (and that's being patriotic not racist).

The Greeks are on our side by the way!

[ramAnag]

You're letting the spin get to you R, talk's cheap, as is Brussells gossip and pro-EU newspaper pap. If it's anywhere near £100m (sorry but bugger referring to it in Euros) I'll be mad as Hell, I want and trust my countrymen to go into commercial battle and come out the winners (and that's being patriotic not racist).

The Greeks are on our side by the way!

I'm not letting the 'spin' get in the way at all and I'll happily pocket the difference if you think the difference between £100m and €100m is insignificant despite Brexit doing it's best to make it so.
I am simply asking those who voted Brexit - you didn't Andy as I recall - if they really voted to leave the single market, leave the customs union and pay something between €60-100m for the privilege. I understand that the EU isn't some sort of magic panacea and that some people were fed up about immigration but...is this mess really what you wanted because it all seems a bloody long way from making the country and the NHS better off as we were told last June?

[roger_ramjet]

I'm not letting the 'spin' get in the way at all and I'll happily pocket the difference if you think the difference between £100m and €100m is insignificant despite Brexit doing it's best to make it so.
I am simply asking those who voted Brexit - you didn't Andy as I recall - if they really voted to leave the single market, leave the customs union and pay something between €60-100m for the privilege. I understand that the EU isn't some sort of magic panacea and that some people were fed up about immigration but...is this mess really what you wanted because it all seems a bloody long way from making the country and the NHS better off as we were told last June?

Make your minds up - first you say 100 billion and now 100 million. 100m, be it in Euros or pounds is about tolerable. 100 billion isnt

[ramAnag]

Make your minds up - first you say 100 billion and now 100 million. 100m, be it in Euros or pounds is about tolerable. 100 billion isnt

Sorry...those big numbers again...just call me Diane (no don't!)
I meant...pay something between €60-100 billion for the privilege of leaving and that there actually is a significant difference between the £ and the € where such enormous amounts are concerned.

[Andy_Faber]

Sorry...those big numbers again...just call me Diane (no don't!)
I meant...pay something between €60-100 billion for the privilege of leaving and that there actually is a significant difference between the £ and the € where such enormous amounts are concerned.

I'm not bothered whether its millions billions or trillions, I want our side to fight their corner and come out with a fair deal. My instinct on this is that the EU have regarded UK as one of the sugar daddies of the union, and will try for a punitive deal on the basis that they want some of the holes created by lack of the UK contribution plugging for a few years beyond our membership to stem the tide of anti-EU sentiment.

[AdiSalisbury]

All I see is Junker crying because he's been told his playstation might be taken away. Shall not be taking paper talk too seriously.

[ramAnag]

I'm not bothered whether its millions billions or trillions, I want our side to fight their corner and come out with a fair deal. My instinct on this is that the EU have regarded UK as one of the sugar daddies of the union, and will try for a punitive deal on the basis that they want some of the holes created by lack of the UK contribution plugging for a few years beyond our membership to stem the tide of anti-EU sentiment.

In which case your 'instinct' would appear to have changed quite dramatically since you voted 'Remain', Andy.
I'm certainly 'bothered' whether it's 'millions, billions or trillions' and like you, I now want a 'fair deal' but like it or not we have, all in the name of Cameron trying to unite his Party, made significant enemies amongst our former allies and there is a high price to pay.

[roger_ramjet]

In which case your 'instinct' would appear to have changed quite dramatically since you voted 'Remain', Andy.
I'm certainly 'bothered' whether it's 'millions, billions or trillions' and like you, I now want a 'fair deal' but like it or not we have, all in the name of Cameron trying to unite his Party, made significant enemies amongst our former allies and there is a high price to pay.

I hate to come back to this point again, but it was not all in the name of Cameron trying to unify his party. It was the decision of the majority of people who could be arsed to vote. That is how we got to where we have got to. Those that didnt vote lost their right to a say, yet they are getting a second chance in a way in the June general election.

What now if the Tory mandate to proceed with Brexit is swept away by a tide of sentiment against the right? Would a left centre coalition, possibly with the aid of remain Tories seek to laught Brexit off as all a bit of a laugh - a giggle - and of course we want to stay?

Do we go best of three, or would a LibLab coalition simply proceed with the leave option despite in many cases having won a general election with a diametrically opposed policy? What if the SNP become a significant partner in the balance of the UK (and lets not forget, English) parliament? the price of their support would be , strangely, (1) abandon Brexit and (2) another independence referendum. Of course a successful independence campaign would probably mean that "New Caledonia" would then have to leave the EU and reapply in its own right - which would likely fail.

This leaves a fascinating West Lothian stance. With an SNP minority holding sway in a hung parliament, the coalition would likely always fail to pass any English legislation as the SNP must abstain and so the opposition could / would defeat any proposals and of course face a fairly immediate vote of no confidence: which the SNP could then vote in and thus defeat!!!

[Andy_Faber]

In which case your 'instinct' would appear to have changed quite dramatically since you voted 'Remain', Andy.
I'm certainly 'bothered' whether it's 'millions, billions or trillions' and like you, I now want a 'fair deal' but like it or not we have, all in the name of Cameron trying to unite his Party, made significant enemies amongst our former allies and there is a high price to pay.

I don't think so R. My belief, despite voting Remain, was and still is that UK was a means by which the EU kept its head above water, that in purely mathematical terms we dobbed in more than our fair share. In moral/socialist terms, maybe that was right and proper, give or take the odd zillion we contributed to the EU having two headquarters, etc. My flippant comment about the order of magnitude was just that, of course I'm bothered but in any event we should stand our ground. I honestly wish I was part of it actually.

No argument that it was Mr Macaroon that dropped the ******* in the first place, what WAS he thinking? Its the second worst political faux pas of recent times, the biggest IMO being when some clever dick decided to stick Jeremy Corbyn on the Labour leadership ballot.

[ramAnag]

I do find it odd, Andy, that you and Roger both voted 'Remain', albeit slightly reluctantly, and have now become such vociferous supporters of the referendum result even though there can be no doubt that it was a result made possible by Cameron's complacency and arrived at by a minority of the electorate.
I understand completely your initial half hearted support for the EU and share it to a large extent. There is a great deal wrong with the EU imo and particularly the lack of democracy and levels of bureaucracy. Having said that I would far rather be in it than feel increasingly isolated as I think has happened since that fateful night last June.
I don't know what happens next Rog. Mrs. May has, in her infinite wisdom, called an election and gone out of her way to make it a single issue election. Little is being said about crucial domestic issues and the Tory agenda seems to be...'who do you trust more to handle Brexit negotiations...our head girl or that scruffy, chaotic Jeremy chap'?
Sadly I fear this will allow the Tories to get away with all sorts of things as far as continued cuts etc are concerned. It is also, I think, a second example of another Tory PM playing with the country's future in order to unite her party and strengthen her own position, but if things do go awry for the Tories...what then? She/they have called this election over Brexit...should they lose or have a reduced majority (which I think is unlikely) possibly because people are waking up to the self inflicted damage being done - should it be regarded as a 'second referendum'? Possibly only the real fear of Corbyn as PM and Abbot as Home Secretary is what is stopping that from happening and that, for me, is a great concern. We seem only to be able to vote - for the second time in under a year - for the lesser of two evils.

[macstheman]

What the EU are trying to do is in some way get us to change our minds over Brexit by using various scare tactics, which may or may not be based on true facts!! Who knows?? As mere mortals (pawns) in the battle still going on over the Referendum result who are we to know who is telling the truth (or the biggest lies!!) and so the age old policy of scare tactics is being used by both sides!! Now, unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your point of view) what the EU are forgetting is that this is an island race seperated from the rest of Europe by a great dollop of cold water!! What all island races have in common is a dose of 'We've survived tide and flood and countless invasions and are still here to tell the tale'. What does that result in?? WE ARE BLOODY AWKWARD AND IF YOU TRY TO TELL US WHAT TO DO OR USE SCARE TACTICS our response is 'been there done that so f***k off'. If Mr Juncker keeps sticking his oar in he might regret it!! I voted to remain, then said I'll do my little bit to make it work on the glass half full principle, now the scaremongering from the remainers and the EU just makes me say 'get stuffed we'll show you whether or not we can make it work!!'
After all that's what island races do!! Anyway I make it a principle to be a bloody awkward sod!!

[Ram59]

I'm not letting the 'spin' get in the way at all and I'll happily pocket the difference if you think the difference between £100m and €100m is insignificant despite Brexit doing it's best to make it so.
I am simply asking those who voted Brexit - you didn't Andy as I recall - if they really voted to leave the single market, leave the customs union and pay something between €60-100m for the privilege. I understand that the EU isn't some sort of magic panacea and that some people were fed up about immigration but...is this mess really what you wanted because it all seems a bloody long way from making the country and the NHS better off as we were told last June?

I think you need to apply a bit of common sense here, we're hearing these leaked threats of having to pay 100bn, but where does this figure come from? Our net contribution each year is around 6bn, so that means we're committed to around 16 years of spending plans, I don't think so. If they keep this up, then it's going to be a hard brexit.

In terms of trade, what does a hard brexit mean? It means that our companies will have to pay a tariff, as will the eu companies exporting to us. As we import 30% more than we export, that means our government will collect 30% more tariffs than our companies pay and without eu restrictions, they will be able to subsidise these companies for the tariffs paid. As our goods are already cheaper, thanks to the devalued pound, our goods will not be affected as much as the German imports valued by the expensive euro plus tariffs.

Don't you feel that because of the bully boy tactics coming out of Brussels, that you'll be glad to get away from their clutches?

[swaledale]

I think you need to apply a bit of common sense here, we're hearing these leaked threats of having to pay 100bn, but where does this figure come from? Our net contribution each year is around 6bn, so that means we're committed to around 16 years of spending plans, I don't think so. If they keep this up, then it's going to be a hard brexit.

In terms of trade, what does a hard brexit mean? It means that our companies will have to pay a tariff, as will the eu companies exporting to us. As we import 30% more than we export, that means our government will collect 30% more tariffs than our companies pay and without eu restrictions, they will be able to subsidise these companies for the tariffs paid. As our goods are already cheaper, thanks to the devalued pound, our goods will not be affected as much as the German imports valued by the expensive euro plus tariffs.

Don't you feel that because of the bully boy tactics coming out of Brussels, that you'll be glad to get away from their clutches?

I'm not going to return to the debate on whether we should stay or go, the deed is done all that remains is what deal we get and believe me that will have a significant impact on most people and if its a hard brexit, the negative impact will on many of those who voted brexit!

On the subject of a hard brexit, there is some tosh thrown around, yes we import more than we export, but people are overlooking one very simple thing, our trade is with 27 countries, the Eu's is with us, they have the 27 in the EU plus countries outside the EU to export to, its clear that it will be a lot easier for the EU to replace trade lost with the Uk than it is going to be for the Uk to replace trade lost with the EU.

BUT, that isn't the most significant matter - many companies in technology, finance and other services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, aerospace and car manufacturing that are based in the UK, do so because it gives them access to the single market and the EU supply chain, if we have a hard brexit, that is going to be a real issue and already many companies are making plans which will see them establish bases or headquarters in an EU country and outside the UK - what that will mean is less export earnings, less tax, less jobs and a knock on to associated industries with more job losses etc. Economically a hard brexit could be a devastating blow to the UK economy and whats more one that is self inflicted.

[roger_ramjet]

Indeed Swale - the Irish must be rubbing their hands in glee. In the EU, almost in the UK, almost speak English, two international tax free zones reasonable infrastructure....