OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

The relationship is that in this case Statista get their data directly from Yougov so the comment made by TTR supported by me regarding the probable left-biased nature of Yougov polls is valid.

Well...IF Statista get their data directly from Yougov and IF Yougov are ‘left biased’ you certainly have a point. On the other hand...I can’t find anything to suggest that Statista ‘get their data directly from Yougov’ and even you only refer to Yougov’s ‘probable’ left biased nature...so I’ll reserve judgement if that’s ok.

[Andy_Faber]

Well...IF Statista get their data directly from Yougov and IF Yougov are ‘left biased’ you certainly have a point. On the other hand...I can’t find anything to suggest that Statista ‘get their data directly from Yougov’ and even you only refer to Yougov’s ‘probable’ left biased nature...so I’ll reserve judgement if that’s ok.

The first point is contained in TTRs post of 1136 Yesterday, not very clearly I’ll admit

[Trickytreesreds]

Well...IF Statista get their data directly from Yougov and IF Yougov are ‘left biased’ you certainly have a point. On the other hand...I can’t find anything to suggest that Statista ‘get their data directly from Yougov’ and even you only refer to Yougov’s ‘probable’ left biased nature...so I’ll reserve judgement if that’s ok.

He isn't just referring RA.
YOUGOV admits it has a lot of left leaning members as their own questionaires show.

But that, doesn't mean that 2000 people are a fair reflection of the publics opinion and even you should know that.

I have have seen many other opinion polls on folks feelings and the figure doesn't vary much from the original 52-48
If anything, the leave vote are more angry with the Torys for failing to implement Leave properly and betray what they promised.
They still refuse to cut all the EU strings and leave us wide open to EU bullying abuse.
It will cost them dearly next election, no matter how much propaganda they put out. I still stand on my comment , that politically, you couldn't get a fag paper between the Tories and Labour at the moment with policies/charisma/decisions/trust.

* my favourite Henning Wehn always nailed the Brexit vote with this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxtB8f4WcIw

[ramAnag]

The first point is contained in TTRs post of 1136 Yesterday, not very clearly I’ll admit

Okay, for clarification.
1. I’m well aware that Tricky made this point yesterday morning. Whether it’s accurate or not I have no way of telling as I have no knowledge of the relationship between Statista and Yougov and so far there has been no confirmation beyond TTR’s initial suggestion.

2. Tricky has repeatedly questioned the sample size. To the best of my knowledge a sample size of between 1000 and 2000 is fairly standard where political polls are concerned.

3. Some of us consistently suggested that the ‘philosophy’ was always based on lies and seriously flawed. Others, you amongst them, defended the decision on the basis of democratic integrity. Are you and/or TTR now actually doubting that the reality of Brexit is proving to be a great deal less ‘popular’ than the ‘theory’?

[Geoff Parkstone]

An interesting challenge awaits for EU Central Control as Poland and Hungary ban imports of Ukraine grain, contrary to EU master policy, in order to protect their domestic markets. Seems lime all is not harmony in toy town

[Andy_Faber]

Okay, for clarification.
1. I’m well aware that Tricky made this point yesterday morning. Whether it’s accurate or not I have no way of telling as I have no knowledge of the relationship between Statista and Yougov and so far there has been no confirmation beyond TTR’s initial suggestion.

2. Tricky has repeatedly questioned the sample size. To the best of my knowledge a sample size of between 1000 and 2000 is fairly standard where political polls are concerned.

3. Some of us consistently suggested that the ‘philosophy’ was always based on lies and seriously flawed. Others, you amongst them, defended the decision on the basis of democratic integrity. Are you and/or TTR now actually doubting that the reality of Brexit is proving to be a great deal less ‘popular’ than the ‘theory’?

Fair go, 1 wasn't a suggestion, it was an extract off statista's website so there comes a point where you have to accept it as genuine.

No argument from me that the sample size is large enough and adjusted for various demographics (however its not adjusted for political leanings)

I still do defend the Leave decision on the basis of democratic integrity, as a democrat I have to, why would there be a change on that? Yes the lies were more convincing on one side than the other, although IMO the most damaging statement made from the Remain perspective was Cameron's pathetic 'emergency brake' stuff, he should have stuck to lies as they were more convincing.

I think your comment about Brexit (in reality) being less 'popular' than in theory is an obvious reflection of the poll, but that's why we have a parliamentary democracy with a small group of people responsible for seeing through our wishes, and who to a greater or lesser extent can 'ride the wave' of short term unpopularity in order to see through long term projects to a (hopefully successful) conclusion.

[ramAnag]

Fair go, 1 wasn't a suggestion, it was an extract off statista's website so there comes a point where you have to accept it as genuine.

No argument from me that the sample size is large enough and adjusted for various demographics (however its not adjusted for political leanings)

I still do defend the Leave decision on the basis of democratic integrity, as a democrat I have to, why would there be a change on that? Yes the lies were more convincing on one side than the other, although IMO the most damaging statement made from the Remain perspective was Cameron's pathetic 'emergency brake' stuff, he should have stuck to lies as they were more convincing.

I think your comment about Brexit (in reality) being less 'popular' than in theory is an obvious reflection of the poll, but that's why we have a parliamentary democracy with a small group of people responsible for seeing through our wishes, and who to a greater or lesser extent can 'ride the wave' of short term unpopularity in order to see through long term projects to a (hopefully successful) conclusion.

1. If that’s the case then I obviously accept your point and apologise for the confusion.

2. I’m not certain how one can adjust for political leanings. As far as I know Yougov has a huge ‘membership’ and I simply don’t know how anyone can judge the leanings of the 2000 or so who took part in this particular or any other relevant survey.

3. As a democrat I understand your desire to support the apparently democratic decision to ‘Leave’. What I have a problem with, and we’ve been over this before but it, imo, remains unresolved...is your willingness to overlook the betrayal of the democratic process in terms of leading exponents of Leave (particularly BJ and NF) telling barefaced lies.
That, again imo, undermines our democracy and I honestly believe that, as the Brexit ‘chickens’ come home to roost, and people begin to see through the shenanigans of the Leave campaign that too has implications for democracy, which was my original point.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Democracy as such is in the hands of a small number of floating voters who change their minds on issues. That's the irony of it - a system where 80% or more of the voters always vote one way is seen as democratic. The power is in the hands of the 20% (or less) of swing voters who determine labour or conservative in power etc.

Same is true with Brexit - it's those who change their mind that determine our fate, not the dyed in the wool remainer like rA or leaver in TTR. They don't matter, have no purpose in a poll or vote. Our fate is in the hands of the indecisive. But how do you target that group to determine it's preferences? In a relatively small sample of 2000 you probably have 1600 or more that won't change their mind come hell or high water, so your key sample is maybe only 400

NB the above ignores age creep voters that can also influence by adding to or deleting from voting stock.

[MadAmster]

Morning mate.
Just to help you in your cry fest.
Details: United Kingdom (Great Britain); YouGov; March 29-30, 2023; 2,002 respondents; 18 years and older; GB Adults

© Statista 2023

You're welcome.

Glad you enjoyed the hols TTR.

With regard to the post of yours I've quoted, what exactly was the response from the 2002 respondents? Is this the same one to which rA referred?

[Andy_Faber]

2. I’m not certain how one can adjust for political leanings. As far as I know Yougov has a huge ‘membership’ and I simply don’t know how anyone can judge the leanings of the 2000 or so who took part in this particular or any other relevant .

It’s a well-researched fact that there’s a 1-2 percent overstatement to ‘the left’, highlighted in U.K. by the industry wide error in the 2015!election. Most pollsters now adjust for this, I don’t believe Yougov do. Brexit is a bit different because it wasn’t a clear left/right issue

[ramAnag]

Democracy as such is in the hands of a small number of floating voters who change their minds on issues. That's the irony of it - a system where 80% or more of the voters always vote one way is seen as democratic. The power is in the hands of the 20% (or less) of swing voters who determine labour or conservative in power etc.

Same is true with Brexit - it's those who change their mind that determine our fate, not the dyed in the wool remainer like rA or leaver in TTR. They don't matter, have no purpose in a poll or vote. Our fate is in the hands of the indecisive. But how do you target that group to determine it's preferences? In a relatively small sample of 2000 you probably have 1600 or more that won't change their mind come hell or high water, so your key sample is maybe only 400

NB the above ignores age creep voters that can also influence by adding to or deleting from voting stock.

Take your point, GP...but for me it’s ‘those who change their mind’ when the truth eventually emerges, or when the reality dawns that they’ve been conned, who have the greatest consequence for our democracy.
I’m really not suggesting that the Left hold a monopoly as far as telling the truth is concerned...but I am convinced that the Brexit victory was won as a result of blatant lying by two of the campaign’s major protagonists and when that happens on such a scale any notion of democracy even on our simplistic ‘one man, one vote’ basis is jeopardised...hence my original question from yesterday morning.

[MadAmster]

It’s a well-researched fact that there’s a 1-2 percent overstatement to ‘the left’, highlighted in U.K. by the industry wide error in the 2015!election. Most pollsters now adjust for this, I don’t believe Yougov do. Brexit is a bit different because it wasn’t a clear left/right issue

There are those who would say it was a question of right and wrong. If any good ever comes out of it it would, IMO, be HMG getting found out for cronyism, if, of course there was any cronyism towards Mone and others in the, now declared illegal, VIP fast lane scam where folk with zero experience in PPE got given 10s of millions, hundreds of millions in some cases, to supply PPE that, in many cases, either never got delivered or was so sub standard it was unusable. £40 odd billion for a test and trace system that didn't work. Millions more on an App that never worked that was put out to a friend/relative/GF (I forget which) of Cummings to create. More wall spaffing.

It does look like billions have been back pocketed by friends, family, donors, sponsors of Tory politicians. My sense of justice says both those who profited and the politicians who mad it happen should end up in court.

There were some firms put forward by Labour and LibDem politicians.... none of them got a contract. Was that merely down to not greasing palms?

[ramAnag]

It’s a well-researched fact that there’s a 1-2 percent overstatement to ‘the left’, highlighted in U.K. by the industry wide error in the 2015!election. Most pollsters now adjust for this, I don’t believe Yougov do. Brexit is a bit different because it wasn’t a clear left/right issue

Andy...I’m sure it will come as no surprise that statistics aren’t really my ‘thing’ however, unless I’m even more numerically mistaken than usual, a ‘1-2% overstatement to the left’ isn’t really going to make much difference to a poll which reflects a 55% v 32% Remain v Leave scenario is it?

[MadAmster]

I might get criticised for post 8982. The way I see it, it's not my cash that has been spaffed, it's all yours and I fervently believe, if there has been any skullduggery going on, then you all (HMG / Taxpayer money) should be repaid and anybody who may have "done wrong" should face trial to establish guilt or otherwise.

My own opinion is that there are a lot of rich folk now sweating profusely due to any legal cases that may be incoming.

My hope is that any and all wrong doers pay the price, both criminal and financial.

[ramAnag]

I might get criticised for post 8982. The way I see it, it's not my cash that has been spaffed, it's all yours and I fervently believe, if there has been any skullduggery going on, then you all (HMG / Taxpayer money) should be repaid and anybody who may have "done wrong" should face trial to establish guilt or otherwise.

My own opinion is that there are a lot of rich folk now sweating profusely due to any legal cases that may be incoming.

My hope is that any and all wrong doers pay the price, both criminal and financial.

Well I for one won’t be criticising post #8982. If what you suggest is true, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that is the case, then the time for wrong doers to pay the price is already overdue and I share your ‘hope’ completely.