O/T:- Trump Presidency 2.0 [hic sunt dracones]

[andy6025]

As to what we were hoping, I can only speak for myself, but I would hope that a ceasefire achievement would mean that both sides cease... firing?

It is a Black Sea cease fire agreement. They have agreed to cease fire in the Black Sea.

[andy6025]

Personally, I like leaks. I hope we have more of them. The more, the better.

I agree with you regarding the lack of ethical considerations on their target. They killed 53 people, and counting. I am especially disappointed with Tulsi Gabbard who has done a Baerbock 360 on Yemen. I was, however, glad to see JD Vance voice his opposition to the plan. Given that he is likely being groomed for the hot seat after Trump, it makes me a little bit hopeful in some aspects. Otherwise it is a case of, Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

[Jampie]

Yeah, of the ****s in the group Vance came off the least idiotic / most thoughtful. But still. Absolute thuggery from start to finish. And what will it achieve? They (allegedly) killed one guy who was an actual target, and levelled a building full of civvies to do it. That's the kind of ratio that increases the net number of combatants, usually.

[Jampie]

Trump has not cut off all support. He did for a short time but then resumed weapons deliveries and intelligence sharing. That is a strange definition of taking russias side.

That said, Trump could well end support for Ukraine if Zelensky refuses to play ball. If that happens then the Ukrainians are certainly free to carry on as they wish. But if what you mean to say is that the old adage that he who pays the piper calls the tune is the case, well, why should the Americans continue to pour money into the ukrainian black hole when the president who campaigned on ending the war won in a clean sweep?

Trump has not cut off support, but he did. Your own words. Nonsensical in the extreme.

How is that a strange definition of taking Russia's side? He did it explicitly to force Zelensky to come to the table. Why didn't Zelensky want to come to the table? Could it be he didn't see the deal being offered as fair?

And what has he done to compel Putin to agree to a ceasefire? Please list actions taken?

Ukraine invaded Donetsk and Lugansk, after an unconstitutional coup took place, kinda like the Jan 6 event in Washington, only in the case of Ukraine the mob won. The oblasts declared their independence, in accordance with the UN charter which upholds the right self determination. And after Ukraine invaded them, Russia came to their aid, in accordance with article 51.

Word for word, line for line the kremlin speaking through you.

[Lullapie]

Thank you to all concerned for getting my thread over 1,000 posts!

[andy6025]

Yeah, of the ****s in the group Vance came off the least idiotic / most thoughtful. But still. Absolute thuggery from start to finish. And what will it achieve? They (allegedly) killed one guy who was an actual target, and levelled a building full of civvies to do it. That's the kind of ratio that increases the net number of combatants, usually.

I agree. I would go even one step further - the Houthis had previously stopped their attacks on shipping when Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire. Now that Israel has gone back to killing Palestinians and blockading deliveries of food and water, etc., the Houthis have resumed their quasi blockade.

The solution seems obvious - stop the Israelis from genociding the Palestinians and the Houthis will stop their attacks on ships.

[andy6025]

Trump has not cut off support, but he did. Your own words. Nonsensical in the extreme.

The Ukrainians are currently getting weapons and intelligence from support from the US. Your original post to which I was responding implied that it was currently frozen, which is not the case.

And what has he done to compel Putin to agree to a ceasefire? Please list actions taken?

He called Putin and asked him. Putin agreed. Job done.

Word for word, line for line the kremlin speaking through you.

Know your enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be defeated. -Sun Tzu

On the other hand, if you refuse to understand your enemy’s position, no matter how much you might disagree with it, you will less likely get the outcomes you desire.

[Med Pie]

A couple of lines from this piece with my opinion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c204vl27n2qo

During the Cold War, the common enemy was the Soviet Union, which included swathes of Eastern Europe.

The US wanted to keep western Europe close, and for it to stay militarily dependent.

Though communism has gone and with it, the attached American paranoia, we still face the same enemy. If Europe were to 'step up' and take on the costs which they surely can (?) then the US and Trump would not be able to use such bully boy tactics.

America has not had it's military presence in Europe as a gesture of solidarity, it's never been a gift. In return they got enormous, influence across the continent, restore national service across all European countries, start picking up the tab and then, let's see how Trump enjoys losing the levers that he currently has. America and it's influence, somehow, has to be removed from Europe.

But also - and this is key - Trump demonstrates not only an antipathy for Europe and an impatience to get the war in Ukraine "done and over", he also displays an affinity for Russia's Vladimir Putin, at a time when Europe considers him an immediate threat to the security and well-being of the whole continent.

This is the biggest problem IMHO, Trump has basically given in to every, Russian demand and in the case of the proposed peace deal, he ruled out two, key, bargaining chips that Ukraine could have used, even before negotiations had started - occupied land and Ukraine's membership of NATO.

[Old_pie]

I agree. I would go even one step further - the Houthis had previously stopped their attacks on shipping when Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire. Now that Israel has gone back to killing Palestinians and blockading deliveries of food and water, etc., the Houthis have resumed their quasi blockade.

The solution seems obvious - stop the Israelis from genociding the Palestinians and the Houthis will stop their attacks on ships.

It is not so obvious when the Palestinians have a government whose stated aim is the elimination of Israel. It seems that some in Gaza are coming to that realisation.

[LincsPie]

A couple of lines from this piece with my opinion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c204vl27n2qo

During the Cold War, the common enemy was the Soviet Union, which included swathes of Eastern Europe.

The US wanted to keep western Europe close, and for it to stay militarily dependent.

Though communism has gone and with it, the attached American paranoia, we still face the same enemy. If Europe were to 'step up' and take on the costs which they surely can (?) then the US and Trump would not be able to use such bully boy tactics.

America has not had it's military presence in Europe as a gesture of solidarity, it's never been a gift. In return they got enormous, influence across the continent, restore national service across all European countries, start picking up the tab and then, let's see how Trump enjoys losing the levers that he currently has. America and it's influence, somehow, has to be removed from Europe.

But also - and this is key - Trump demonstrates not only an antipathy for Europe and an impatience to get the war in Ukraine "done and over", he also displays an affinity for Russia's Vladimir Putin, at a time when Europe considers him an immediate threat to the security and well-being of the whole continent.

This is the biggest problem IMHO, Trump has basically given in to every, Russian demand and in the case of the proposed peace deal, he ruled out two, key, bargaining chips that Ukraine could have used, even before negotiations had started - occupied land and Ukraine's membership of NATO.

What does Europe have that Trump needs to gain leverage for? Perhaps he doesn't want influence over Europe. His focus is on what is best for the USA, American jobs and himself (and not necessarily in that order).

[i961pie]

It appears Trump is running scared after democrat James Malone looks to have won a seat in the Senate by overturning a 15 point lead from the election. Elise Stefaniks was Trumps choice for UN ambassador but he has withdrawn her nomination because he can't afford to risk losing another seat.

Maybe the American people are starting to realise what a disaster Trump is.

[Mapperleypie]

It's really difficult to watch the MAGA crowd still cheer this awful nonsense on. Most of them are going to be worse off from his tariff stupidly (as we all are), the whole capitalist deal is based on comparative advantage - he seems completely blind to this very basic of economic concepts.

The only way the US becomes a manufacturing superpower again is by a massive devaluation of the dollar which would be hugely painful to nearly all Americans - the tariffs alone are never going to achieve the stated aim - it's performative bollox.

[Lullapie]

It appears Trump is running scared after democrat James Malone looks to have won a seat in the Senate by overturning a 15 point lead from the election. Elise Stefaniks was Trumps choice for UN ambassador but he as withdrawn her nomination because he can't afford to risk losing another seat.
Maybe the American people are starting to realise what a disaster Trump is.

Not sure though. Gallup is certainly no friend of Trump, but they report that 'Trump's approval rating has ticked up in his second term', with the latest poll released today.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5217754-trump-approval-rating-gallup-poll/

The main demographic that is hard anti-Trump (within the US) are the university post-graduate females. They have the most to lose (apart from Transgender and illegal immigrants) with Trump's drive to reform the government departments. They make up the greatest percentage of employees within the higher echelons of government managers.

It's also a common factor in new governments that take over from previous failing administrations that they have a 'new government bounce', as soon as they are elected and there is a new feeling of hope. Then when reality kicks in how bad the country has been run prior, some, who expect it to be fixed straight away, start to waiver.

The UK with Starmer and closer to my home, New Zealand with Luxon, have suffered a similar decline in polling. They can't fix years of decline over night, but Trump has definitely acted faster than many other leaders.

[Jampie]

"Trump does remain underwater in the Gallup poll, with 53 percent saying they do not support the way he’s handling his job as president."

So, he's still historically unpopular but not doing as badly as he was this time in his first term. So basically just on the polling he's the worst president on record since the last time he was president, hardly a revelation.

I think, given that the full impacts of his mistakes will take years to take hold, his popularity is likely to decline over time.

[Jampie]

Ukraine invaded Donetsk and Lugansk, after an unconstitutional coup took place, kinda like the Jan 6 event in Washington, only in the case of Ukraine the mob won. The oblasts declared their independence, in accordance with the UN charter which upholds the right self determination. And after Ukraine invaded them, Russia came to their aid, in accordance with article 51.

Ok, I've got time to respond to this now.

Firstly, let me say that I for one am delighted by your sudden interest in human rights an international law! But as these are exciting new concepts for you, please allow me to explain how they actually work:

Firstly, Donetsk and Luhansk are part of Ukraine already. Ukraine didn't invade them. This part isn't complicated, not sure why you're confused.

Second, my right to self determination under the UN charter is absolutely fulfilled by the free and fair elections I can take part in every few years. It does not grant, and has never granted me the right to declare my backyard an independent republic. Nor does it grant me the right to say "hell, im feeling a bit Kiwi today, I might ask the Kiwi's to send their army to occupy my backyard and help me maintain my independence from these annoying aussies".

And that's ignoring the completely absurd notion that anybody's right of self determination will somehow be helped by bringing in troops from Russia. A somewhat ahistorical perspective to say the least.