OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Andy_Faber]

[QUOTE=swaledale;38338807] Playing the Hitler card, the race card , i suppose playing the gay card, the disabled card or possibly the woman card also gets in the way of constructive debate? QUOTE]

Yes i'm afraid it does. And its progressively turning so many reasonable, tolerant, unprejudiced people into the type of people they always said they wouldn't be. I fight against that feeling all the time believe me.

[Andy_Faber]

Just to add a bit of insider info, and then I'll bugger off and get some work done. I work in automotive, so I get all sorts of public-domain news plus some morsels of what the big guns in the industry are bull****ting about. A number of times recently I've heard/seen reports that business leaders in automotive are informally doing their own Brexit negotiations, working towards a roughly 'status quo' approach to trade between UK and EU (for automotive only) on the basis that it sort of worked in the past, why shouldn't it sort of work in the future?. Now, once the politicians get sidelined and the businessmen get talking, THEN I get interested, and this looks like a pointer towards it. Note that I have no axe to grind as my employers don't do any EU business.

[swaledale]

[QUOTE=Andy_Faber;38338901]

Playing the Hitler card, the race card , i suppose playing the gay card, the disabled card or possibly the woman card also gets in the way of constructive debate? QUOTE]

Yes i'm afraid it does. And its progressively turning so many reasonable, tolerant, unprejudiced people into the type of people they always said they wouldn't be. I fight against that feeling all the time believe me.

No unprejudiced people do not get turned into the type of people they said they wouldn't be by whatever "card" it is claimed is currently being played thats people who may well have a justifiable grievance seeking whatever they can to blame for that grievance - if your a tolerant reasonable person then you would recognise that it is necessary for the way we operate and think to change before at the very least there is less discrimination or barriers to all people having equality of opportunity, unfortunately it is human nature by and large to resist such change and that is precisely the well of feeling that Farage and Trump feed into.

So if you truly believe that the majority of the time tolerant reasonable people are disadvantaged because of a bias to women, gay or lesbians, ethnic minorties or the disabled then there needs to be a reality check, because whatever lets say white working class (although these feelings are also common in older wealthier white people) people feel its not due to attempting to treat all people with respect and providing equal opportunities. As I said, the Jews were not the cause of Germany's problems in the 30's and immigrants are not the issue today, people are attacking the wrong targets.

[swaledale]

Thats all

I was being deliberately simple with the falling pound Rog as you well know! But given that materials prices of most of the stuff industry uses is going up in the region of 10% at the moment and that will feed inflation, that will be the most immediate impact.

The low skilled workforce issue may be a by product of education policy, the question is whether there is the ability within the population that is currently economically inactive to be upskilled - technology day by day removes jobs which were available and it coming for the skilled jobs as well. Which is an issue outside the EU relly.

[swaledale]

Just to add a bit of insider info, and then I'll bugger off and get some work done. I work in automotive, so I get all sorts of public-domain news plus some morsels of what the big guns in the industry are bull****ting about. A number of times recently I've heard/seen reports that business leaders in automotive are informally doing their own Brexit negotiations, working towards a roughly 'status quo' approach to trade between UK and EU (for automotive only) on the basis that it sort of worked in the past, why shouldn't it sort of work in the future?. Now, once the politicians get sidelined and the businessmen get talking, THEN I get interested, and this looks like a pointer towards it. Note that I have no axe to grind as my employers don't do any EU business.

Unfortunately it is the politicians who will have the final say, and the prospect of any single sector carrying on as it sort of worked whilst we are members of the EU is remote, there is a fundamental political imperative amongst the Eu to stick to the principles of freedom of labour, goods, services and capital and at the moment it seems a willingness to accept some economic pain to protect that principle and one can see why, a "special deal" for the Uk would completely alter the nature of the EU and given that any deal has to be ratified by all 27 member states is unlikely.

Obviously the government has made some commitment to Nissan for it to agree to its investment in the Nissan plant, but if it does not suit nissan's needs post Brexit, then a complete shift of the manufacturing base out of the Uk could be achieved in a very short timescale.

[roger_ramjet]

A

[swaledale]

A

Apologies Rog, didn't give you credit for a well thought out and credible response when you dissected my previous posts.

Have LIKE

[roger_ramjet]

The low skilled workforce issue may be a by product of education policy, the question is whether there is the ability within the population that is currently economically inactive to be upskilled - technology day by day removes jobs which were available and it coming for the skilled jobs as well. Which is an issue outside the EU relly.

Can the economically inactive be upskilled? Maybe, but probably not that great a percentage of them. Many older long term unemployed seem to have given up and are content to live out their lives in state sponsored indolence. Its not their fault altogether as they are ill equipped to enter a job market where they have no (or the wrong) skills at a time when the job market is both demanding more from its recruits AND demanding less of them, as technology reduces the need for human intervention, however skilled. Retraining may be possible into those areas where we have major shortages - those areas where Eastern European labour is most in demand - essentially the trades learned through apprenticeships.

But I firmly believe that there is little hope for the "lost generations" (40-50 age group I reckon) that, even if fully retrained over the next 5 years, then face a bleak job market in which to exercise their new found skills as they find themselves too old to compete with 23 year old newly fledged apprentices. If not now, these are the JAMs of the future and we have to learn from that experience and get our skills training in schools right. There is no point having an overdeveloped pool of university graduates who cannot get jobs because they have no relevant skills. The vanity project of maximising the number of people spending 3 or 4 years studying a subject with no end product has to stop. Yes everyone should have the opportunity to advance to the highest level of educational attainment but not if it means that they just sit on the scrap heap when finished. Dumbing down university standards so that every Tom Dick and Harry have a chance to graduate may sound harsh, but its that very "liberal" policy that has got us where we are: an over and under skilled populace with noone in the middle ground: skilled tradesmen have disappeared like a fart in a high wind.

So no, I dont think the situation will be easily reversed and, given the state of our educational system, by the time they realise their mistakes and correct them, the job needs will have moved on and they will be wrong again for a different reason.

[ramAnag]

anagRam. "Straw clutching " Yes that's what it looks like when you come on here at the slightest bit of news that you think will helpyour preferences Obama there were many remainers who thought he was wrong to interfere with another countries.Democratic process especially as he wouldn't be in office when Brexit happens Gina Millar anyone with half a brain knows why she has taken it to court If you think its for the good of the country you must be very naive Ive just been through yours and Swales posts again you mentioned the democracy 68 times Well we've had a Democratic vote and you either except it or you don't Please don't come back with the figures about howclose itwasweve been there enough times Agree with you it doesn't seem fair but life's like that I don't like an unelected Royal family an unelected PM an unelected House of Lords and definitely not 3 unelected judges Let's hope we can get back to football

Mista, I respect your views, particularly about football, but to describe me as 'clutching at straws' really is nonsense. It's not about whether Obama was right or wrong, it's about one rule for Obama and another for Trump. It's not about Gina Miller's motives, it's about the fact that she brought a court action which incensed Farage and many Brexiteers and is subsequently now afraid to leave her house. Neither is it about how often Swale and I have mentioned democracy - and we really aren't joined at the hip or acting in tandem - but, seeing as you mention it, let's put it in a hypothetical football context. Supposing a situation arose where what colour Derby play in was somehow subject to a popular vote amongst the citizens of the city. Derby has a population of around 250,000 of whom maybe 10% have an active interest in DCFC. Of course you would be considered an expert in this particular hypothetical 'referendum' and the rest of the 10% would undoubtedly vote for black and white, but a great many of those with little interest in or knowledge of football might believe that all red or electric orange might be brighter and cheerier and some might, perish the thought, think that football is boring or something they have a complete lack of awareness of and decide they've got better things to do than vote. Either way, the hypothetical result might well be that 35% vote for black and white, 25% couldn't care less and don't vote, 3% are Forest fans and can't manage the cross and 37% vote for all red as Derby's new kit. Do you accept that as an example of serious and committed democracy in action or would you have reservations about the whole process? I suspect you would and what's more I suspect that in such circumstances you would fight your corner which is all Swale and I are doing.

[swaledale]

Can the economically inactive be upskilled? Maybe, but probably not that great a percentage of them. Many older long term unemployed seem to have given up and are content to live out their lives in state sponsored indolence. Its not their fault altogether as they are ill equipped to enter a job market where they have no (or the wrong) skills at a time when the job market is both demanding more from its recruits AND demanding less of them, as technology reduces the need for human intervention, however skilled. Retraining may be possible into those areas where we have major shortages - those areas where Eastern European labour is most in demand - essentially the trades learned through apprenticeships.

But I firmly believe that there is little hope for the "lost generations" (40-50 age group I reckon) that, even if fully retrained over the next 5 years, then face a bleak job market in which to exercise their new found skills as they find themselves too old to compete with 23 year old newly fledged apprentices. If not now, these are the JAMs of the future and we have to learn from that experience and get our skills training in schools right. There is no point having an overdeveloped pool of university graduates who cannot get jobs because they have no relevant skills. The vanity project of maximising the number of people spending 3 or 4 years studying a subject with no end product has to stop. Yes everyone should have the opportunity to advance to the highest level of educational attainment but not if it means that they just sit on the scrap heap when finished. Dumbing down university standards so that every Tom Dick and Harry have a chance to graduate may sound harsh, but its that very "liberal" policy that has got us where we are: an over and under skilled populace with noone in the middle ground: skilled tradesmen have disappeared like a fart in a high wind.

So no, I dont think the situation will be easily reversed and, given the state of our educational system, by the time they realise their mistakes and correct them, the job needs will have moved on and they will be wrong again for a different reason.

I agree wholeheartedly on the expansion of university places and this focus on degrees, many employers i work with who require degrees won't look at graduates who haven't gone to a "Russell group" university, though they are not that worried about the class of the degree, they test applicants and assess them on their abilities, one crucial bit is understanding what work means and that having a degree does not exempt them from doing the ****ty boring jobs to start with!

My two children followed different paths, one academically gifted went to a good unviversity and got a good degree the other left school at 16 and became an apprentice electrician (oh the looks of sympathy from some friends and relatives about that, as if getting a degree ws the only worthwhile thing to do..utter crap of course).

Funnily enough my lad did not find getting an apprenticeship a problem, his employers were impressed that he actually wanted to work and learn a trade and was enthusiastic about what he was doing, but that they found it a problem to find people with a similar approach, sign of the times I guess.

[swaledale]

So what some of us on here have been warning of is becoming apparent, forget the forecasts always wrong, but hard data shows the true effects and who will be hit hardest? Those who voted Brexit (apart from the smug wealthy aged Tories of course!).


One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is — more than a decade without real earnings growth,” said Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, in his analysis of the latest official economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Real wages in the UK were hit badly after the financial crisis and the OBR’s forecasts suggest the outlook has darkened again since the Brexit vote.

Average earnings fell 9 per cent between 2008 and 2013 as wages failed to keep pace with inflation. Before the Brexit vote the OBR had been expecting slow earnings growth over the next few years, with average wages finally returning to their 2008 level by 2020.

But the forecaster predicts the vote for Brexit will hurt productivity and wage growth, while the drop in sterling that followed the vote will push up inflation. As a result, it forecasts that real wage growth will stall next year and even by 2021 average earnings will be below their 2008 level.

[ramAnag]

The 'Russell Group' are just the old established universities aren't they Swale? The ones that were fully fledged in the days before every Polytechnic and College of Higher Education became a 'University' under Thatcher? That's not what the problem is imo. The problem is the controls that are placed on the relative values of knowledge which the example of your two sons illustrates perfectly. Society places enormous value on academic knowledge and achievement. People are deemed to be brighter, cleverer and more 'valuable' if they are articulate and academic. Higher social esteem is afforded those who have well developed and advanced literacy skills and have achieved good academic qualifications. The skilled electricians, joiners, plumbers and builders etc are somehow looked down upon and until we, as a society, recognise that more 'practical' skills are worthy of at least the same recognition as those with more academic ability we will continue to have a problem.

[swaledale]

Your right Anagram, they are the "original" universities, the old style Polytechnics were focussed on as the name suggests technical courses and IMO became diluted when turned into universities, but even they are a cut above the so called new uni's which in reality are nothing more than glorifed further education colleges offering thir rate degrees and with third rate lecturers.

It is indeed the social standing of "having a degree" whereas a practical technical qualification can lead to a whole variety of things, a I pointed out to those who looked down their noses on the one who chose the Apprenticeship, he will have the opportunity should he so wish to extend his education by various job related technical courses whilst earning an dgetting real expereince at the same time. And we will always need electricians in one form or another!

[ramspride]

[QUOTE=swaledale;38339384]So what some of us on here have been warning of is becoming apparent, forget the forecasts always wrong, but hard data shows the true effects and who will be hit hardest? Those who voted Brexit (apart from the smug wealthy aged Tories of course!).


One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is — more than a decade without real earnings growth,” said Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, in his analysis of the latest official economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.


Is that the same OBR who predicted

1Economic expansion of 5.7% between 2010 and mid 2012. Reality only 0.9%
2In March 2013 predicted growth for that year 0.6% and 1.8% in 2014. Reality 2013 3.1% 2014 3.1%.
3 Oil revenue forecast £2.4billion in 2016-17. Reality now revised down to £600m
4 March 2013 they said public borrowing would be £120bn in 2013-14, £108bn in 2014-15 and £95.5bn in 2015-16. Reality £104bn, £96bn and £76bn.
5 In March 2014 predicted inflation of 2% in 2015 and 2016. Reality 0% last year and currently 0.9%.

Who runs the OBR Enid Blyton dont take much notice of what they say.

[swaledale]

[QUOTE=ramspride;38339444]

So what some of us on here have been warning of is becoming apparent, forget the forecasts always wrong, but hard data shows the true effects and who will be hit hardest? Those who voted Brexit (apart from the smug wealthy aged Tories of course!).


One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is — more than a decade without real earnings growth,” said Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, in his analysis of the latest official economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.


Is that the same OBR who predicted

1Economic expansion of 5.7% between 2010 and mid 2012. Reality only 0.9%
2In March 2013 predicted growth for that year 0.6% and 1.8% in 2014. Reality 2013 3.1% 2014 3.1%.
3 Oil revenue forecast £2.4billion in 2016-17. Reality now revised down to £600m
4 March 2013 they said public borrowing would be £120bn in 2013-14, £108bn in 2014-15 and £95.5bn in 2015-16. Reality £104bn, £96bn and £76bn.
5 In March 2014 predicted inflation of 2% in 2015 and 2016. Reality 0% last year and currently 0.9%.

Who runs the OBR Enid Blyton dont take much notice of what they say.

Eh no its an independent viewpoint which says that the OBR's and indeed most forecasts are wrong, you need to read a bit more carefully and the data on earnings is grim reading and not good for those folks who thought Brexit would change their lives for the better!

Its adds to the evidence from other independent research which categorically proved that it was the financial crash and austerity measures which depressed earnings and not migration from the EU.