OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[AngryRam]

Sorry just to add to my post 134. I do realise that we are a very small group do draw any real conclusions from.. Just an interesting group.

[ramAnag]

Hello mista, where have you been? I've missed you. How come every other bugger can sign in but I have to change my name? You promised to look into this Bloomer...was that just a politicians promise?

Anyway...I'm not really into 'blame' mista and I didn't mean it to sound as if I was 'blaming' Labour strongholds. Just pointing out that areas such as the North East of England which were solidly Labour at the last election were amongst the most surprising areas to deliver such a strong 'Leave' vote in the Referendum. I'd gone to bed by the time the results started coming in (mainly because I was an hour ahead at the time) comforted by the knowledge that Ladbrokes (and Swale) had both called a 'Remain' victory, but I believe it was the closeness of the vote in Newcastle followed by 'Leave' winning in Sunderland when the writing first appeared to be on the wall.
Christ, was it really all just two weeks ago?

I do agree Angry, the 'Leavers' on here have put a lot of thought into their decision. I'm not so certain that that's reflected across the country as I think the behaviour of a minority since the Referendum would suggest.

[ramspride]

I do think the posts on this topic show how good Derby supporters are. Apart from the initial occasional rant about other posts it has developed into a good debate with both supporters of remain and leave airing their opinions. Again both sides have, in the main, thought about the others views and counter replied. To carry the debate further it looks like Theresa May will become PM what do you all think she should do. Whats the way forward? Should we wait until October before starting article 50. Your views will be very interesting.

[AngryRam]

To carry the debate further it looks like Theresa May will become PM what do you all think she should do.

Buy a Rabbit, she is going to need to learn how to relax.

[ramAnag]

Buy a Rabbit, she is going to need to learn how to relax.

...and you called me weird...you and your fantasies. Can't say I share that one.

Don't know why we have to wait till September for May...at least I hope it's May...the other one just looks (and sounds) like Thatcher Mk2...and please God, no to that!

P.S. I think she should forget all about article 50 RP...pretend it never happened. Oh no...now look what I've done

[southernram22]

despite all this still hope we get promotion this year .

[southernram22]

i think at last poloticians are realising they need to actually work and be seen to work. and if anyone starts a thread on tony blair i will explode.

[AngryRam]

...and you called me weird...you and your fantasies. Can't say I share that one.

Don't know why we have to wait till September for May...at least I hope it's May...the other one just looks (and sounds) like Thatcher Mk2...and please God, no to that!

P.S. I think she should forget all about article 50 RP...pretend it never happened. Oh no...now look what I've done

No that's just your dirty mind... Rabbits are well known for their therapeutic value.. Cheap to keep as well. We had a Guinea Pig but it was not quite the same.

[southernram22]

my hamster lives in a hat in its cage

[macstheman]

Apart from the Referendum result and its' consequences (good or bad) what we appear to be seeing is the cycle of British politics moving along to a new position. In my lifetime that cycle normally sees the 2 major parties move further apart - Labour to the left and the Tories to the right - allowing the Liberals (now Lib dems) to grab more of the centre ground, this is then followed by the Tories and Labour moving back to the centre squeezing out the LD's. At the present time the LD's are totally incapable of occupying any ground unless its' a six foot deep hole!! So, we could see the unusual situation of 2 extreme parties with a big hole in the middle which will be quite unusual if it happens!! Will the left hold sway or the right??

With regard to the new Tory leader both I think are right of centre with Andrea Pearson furthest right. Corbyn is clearly on the left so if he stays the scenario is set. With regard to Brexit Leadsom will happily exit whilst Corbyn won't resist!! May will observe the outcome of the Referendum ie negotiate Brexit and Corbyn won't resist!!

[Andy_Faber]

So, we could see the unusual situation of 2 extreme parties with a big hole in the middle which will be quite unusual if it happens!! Will the left hold sway or the right??

Neat observation. I see another example of the wheel turning, and that is away from tolerance/political correctness which you could say was the home turf of the Lib Dems to intolerance/saying it like it is, and with the prevailing mood being intolerance of immigration, the 2 big parties will be keeping their eyes on the rise of UKIP.

Remember DC's concern about losing influence to UKIP caused him to call the referendum in the first place, and I would guess that the future administration's similar sense of self preservation will lead them to being relatively intolerant (let's say, of immigrants/immigration) for fear of UKIP calling them to account and recruiting a big wodge of the 17m to help them fill that hole. As usual, no axe being ground, I'm just suggesting a possible direction

[swaledale]

respect your views swale let me tell you this i went to a seminar near me held by ian duncan smith he quite openly said that here the members of government when in meetings took packed lunches and when he visited brussels they have a large gated shopping area only allowed for use by the commision they only have to hail a cab and its paid for no questions asked etc and that the food is all paid for by us. no one else get these perks why should these bureaucrats be allowed to create this gravy train of greed ? also swale while your on about a generation thats blighted the youngs future what about past generations who gave everything they had for for europe twice do they not count. also when we joined please correct me if i am wrong but i am not we joined a ten state trading bloc not a united states of europe ? which many are now trying to lead us down . the choice is easy stay in and become a one nation no identity country ruled by arrogant non elected bureaucrats. or be a country that democratically makes its own rules and decisions rightly or wrongly for its inhabitents a country where our laws are not overturned by a court in another country ask and german citizen i have some friends there what they think about mrs merkels migrants plan and how the ***ual assults figures have risen by 500% in 6 months or who is actually bailing out greece ? i never overlooked that all the political parties were for remain it shows just one thing how completely out of touch the ruling classes and the banks buissness people are with the general people of this country swale its no good brushing others views under carpet like you have been known to do . you like many others need to open eyes listen and learn . what happens if another referendum took place and the vote was even more to leave would the remain go for a best of three from 5 . its time to see the people are fed up with all politicians whatever party they want fairness not bankers paying themselves immoral wages they dont want footballers being paid silly wages they want food on plates roofs over heads kids in proper staffed schools and an nhs that can cope . if europe gives us all this then i am wrong but swale be honest it does not offer less coruption it is a money pit .

I agree but I ahve yet to see an explanation as to how leaving the EU will give people what they want? We will still be ruled by big business and the elite who ensure that politicians do what they want, because they can offe thos epoliticians a chnace to ge thir snout in the Uk trough!

I struggle to see how the refugee crisis, which one could argue has been handled very badly is anything to do with the EU? So the point about 500% increase in ***ual assaults (a very dubious statistic and one closely aligned to distrust of foreigners and other cultures) is irrelevant in the context of the vote to leave the EU - last time I looked I hadnt noticed the Eu had forced us to accept any non Eu citizens!!

People may be fed up with big business, corruption and the rich getting richer whilst the poor get poorer but I have yet to see they will actually do anything about it and the vote leave the EU certainly hasnt improved thier lot as we will no doubt see.

I do open my eyes and ears - the reason I am aghast at the leave's reasons for voting leave is that firstly the reasons given dont bear close scrutiny - the vast majority of our laws are passed by UK government , perhaps you could clarify how laws passed by the EU have impacted negatively on your life or those whom you know? Immigration underpins our economy and the without it we would be in a very sorry state unless you believe that there are simply thousands of decent skilled hard working Brits who are not working simply because immigrants have taken their jobs?

IF the economy dives due to Brexit, it will be those who voted leave who will be hardest hit - will they think the "freedom" gained is worth it?

[triz]

All I care about now is IDS and his sarnies.

[roger_ramjet]

Totally agree with virtually all you've said Roger...your point about the 'leave' vote coming from the 'labour strongholds' was what I meant when I spoke of the contradiction between the 2015 Election and the Referendum and I suspect that nowhere was this more manifest than in the English north east.

As for the rest...I don't know what to say. Given the rate that former 'Remains' are moving to 'Leave' on here Swale and I are obviously about as successful at putting our case as Johnson and Gove now appear to be at winning a leadership contest amongst their party. (At least that bit has offered some cheer.)

I agree with Adi on one thing...that it has been a largely excellent debate...and perhaps the one good thing that can come out of the Tory bitterness and Labour chaos will eventually be the emergence of a new moderate party made up of the best of what is, imo, the fairly lamentable bunch of individuals who currently occupy Parliament.

I've answered questions about why I favour Remain. In the continued absence of Cornwall and Manx, I'll ask Roger - our only remaining economic expert I think - what, in your informed opinion, does the economic future now hold if we do indeed proceed down the Brexit route?

I wrote a nice long response to this last night which I "sent" to the board however it seems to have failed to have arrived. Another flaw in the new system seemingly, and not for the first time.

I havent the enthusiasm to rewrite it but in essence noone can say because in a few months something might happen that nullifies all assumptions. BUT in essence markets are resilient and if underlying businesses remain strong then its a "simple" matter of unbundling trade agreements and redesigning them. Wont be as bad as some fear or as easy as some assume.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose. The reality is that the need for the free trade zone will probably result in an exit deal that mimics a lot of the old EU arrangements, including some free movement of labour, but excluding a lot of the federalist overtones. Not a bad compromise that in my view.

The biggest question is will anyone else follow our lead? Another big player deciding to leave, especially a net contributor, could bring the whole thing down around our head. Then the decision to have been the first to bail out of the sinking ship may seem a good one. But if it does then expect to see a 2025 sequel "EU2 - The Wrath of Farage" as the stronger western european nations rebuild and redesign a less painful "common market".

The EU is a bit like genital warts, herpes or the Rat: it wont go away, its for life. In one form or another. Because in theory its good but in practice it stinks

[ramspride]

Really good post Roger. I think a lot of the points you've made will come to fruition. Bit unfair to group rat with genital warts and herpes though. Oh on reflection maybe you're right. Pity you lost your original post these days I type out my post on Libra so if the post fails I just paste it again. I know to a lot of posters dismay.